What the great reopening means for China—and the world
This year’s biggest economic event is already under way
Jan 2nd 2023
WHEN ITS borders open on January 8th, China will have spent 1,016 days closed to the outside world. The country’s “zero-covid” policy has been a social and economic experiment without precedent: a vast public-health campaign that mostly kept the disease at bay; Xi Jinping’s pride and joy; and, by the end, a waking nightmare for many of China’s 1.4bn people.
experiment
n. 实验, 试验, 尝试, 实践
v. 尝试, 试用, 做试验, 进行实验
precedent
n. 先例, 前例, 可援用参考的具体例子, 实例
adj. 在前的, 优先的
到1月8日边境开放之时，中国将有1016天闭关锁国之日。该国的“零covid”政策是一项史无前例的社会和经济实验:一场大规模的公共卫生运动，在很大程度上遏制了这种疾病;最终，对于14亿中国人中的许多人来说，这将是一场清醒的噩梦。
Armies in white hazmat suits have been deployed to collect tens of billions of throat and nasal swabs. Millions were quarantined or hauled off to fever camps, often arbitrarily. Fear of isolation sent people fleeing from offices and factories where cases were found. Amateur videos captured residents leaping to their deaths from apartment blocks after weeks of seclusion. In major cities daily life stood still for months on end. A cosmopolitan class of young, wealthy Chinese was forced to come to grips with a life without international travel. Foreign entrepreneurs and executives were barred from returning to their homes and businesses in the country.
hazmat
网络 危险品运输; 应变程序;
throat
n. 咽喉, 喉咙; 嗓音, 嗓门
v. 用喉音说
nasal
adj. 鼻的, 与鼻子相关的, 带鼻音的, 从鼻腔发出的
n. 【语】鼻音, 【解】鼻骨, (钢盔的)护鼻
swab
n. （医用的）拭子, 用拭子对（人体）化验标本的采集
v. 用拭子擦拭, 擦拭（地板等）
haul
v. （用力）拉，拖（重物）
n. （赃物或非法物品的）一大批，大量；（鱼的）捕获量
arbitrarily
adv. 武断地；反复无常地；专横地；任意的
amateur
adj. 业余爱好的；业余的
n. 业余爱好者；外行
leap
v. 跳跃，跃过，猛冲
n. 跳跃，剧增，急变
adj. 闰年的
seclusion
n. 隔离, 与世隔绝, 隐居(地)
cosmopolitan
adj. 世界性的, 全球各国的, 有各国人的, 受各国文化影响的
n. 周游世界的人, 世界公民
grip
v. 紧握; 紧抓; 咬住; 夹牢; 吸引住; 有吸引力
n. 紧握, 抓牢; (车轮或鞋子的) 防滑性; 支配, 控制; 理解, 掌握; 把手; 发夹; 旅行包;
身着白色防护服的军队被派去收集数百亿份喉咙和鼻腔样本。数以百万计的人被隔离或送到发烧营地，通常是任意的。由于害怕被孤立，人们逃离了发现病例的办公室和工厂。业余视频捕捉到居民在与世隔绝数周后从公寓楼跳楼自杀的场景。在大城市里，日常生活连续几个月停滞不前。一个来自世界各地的中国年轻富裕阶层被迫接受没有国际旅行的生活。外国企业家和高管被禁止返回他们在该国的家园和企业。
Before vaccines were widely available, officials could argue this approach was needed to save lives. By the end, the experiment offered a bleak existence at an extraordinary cost. China’s economy probably grew by less than 3% in 2022. Over the past 18 months, it has forgone about $1trn-worth of GDP, according to Oxford Economics, a research firm, compared with what it would have produced had its reopening resembled the rest of the world’s. Restrictions on movement snarled the most advanced global supply chains. In November profits at industrial firms dropped by 9% year on year. Meanwhile, exchanges between China and the outside world fell to their lowest in decades. Few foreign students remain. Overseas tourism has collapsed. Mr Xi has only recently resumed foreign travel after remaining in China for two-and-a-half years.
bleak
adj. 不乐观的, 无望的, 暗淡的, 阴冷的, 荒凉的
n. 【鱼】(淡水产)银鲤
The rise of online shopping may cause a bleak prospect of conventional retailers.
网上购物的兴起，可能造成传统零售商前景惨淡。
forgo
v. 弃绝（想做的事或想得之物）
resemble
v. 与……相似，类似
snarl
v. 龇牙低吼, 咆哮着说, 不耐烦地说
n. （动物的）龇牙低吼, 愤怒叫嚷（声）, 咆哮（声）, 疼痛叫声
n. 缠结物，蓬乱的事物
在疫苗广泛使用之前，官员们可能会辩称，为了挽救生命，这种方法是必要的。到最后，这个实验以巨大的代价提供了一个凄凉的生存。2022年中国经济增速可能不到3%。研究公司牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的数据显示，在过去18个月里，与像世界其他地区那样重新开放所能产生的GDP相比，中国已经损失了约1万亿美元的GDP。对流动的限制扰乱了最先进的全球供应链。11月份工业企业的利润同比下降了9%。与此同时，中国与外界的交流降至几十年来的最低水平。几乎没有外国学生留下来。海外旅游业已经崩溃。Xi先生在中国呆了两年半后，直到最近才恢复出国旅行。
Zero-covid lasted longer than anyone initially expected, then collapsed faster than anyone could have imagined. In a matter of weeks China has gone from some of the world’s strictest restrictions to almost none. For the population at large, fear of lockdowns and quarantine has vanished. Following a period of turbulence, economic activity is likely to rebound sharply. Increased demand for energy and commodities will be felt around the world. Investors and multinational executives will soon be able to visit offices and factories. The great reconnecting of China with the outside world marks the end of an era: that of the global pandemic.
turbulence
n. 动荡, 紊流, 混乱, 骚乱
multinational
adj. 跨国的, 涉及多国的
n. 跨国公司
零冠病毒持续的时间比任何人最初预期的都长，然后崩溃的速度比任何人想象的都快。在短短几周内，中国已经从世界上最严格的一些限制措施变成了几乎没有限制。对于广大民众来说，对封锁和隔离的恐惧已经消失。在经历了一段时间的动荡之后，经济活动可能会大幅反弹。全球对能源和大宗商品的需求都将增加。投资者和跨国公司高管很快就可以参观办公室和工厂了。中国与外部世界的伟大连接标志着一个时代的结束:全球大流行的时代。
Normality will not arrive immediately. According to one estimate, 37m people a day are catching covid. Hospitals are overwhelmed. So are crematoria. Officials acknowledge few deaths—and face an immense challenge keeping production lines running. Tesla, a carmaker, halted operations at its factory in Shanghai on December 24th. Local officials may seal off towns to keep cases down, worries an executive. The economy could contract in the first three months of opening up, says Tommy Wu of Commerzbank. But the recovery will arrive earlier than analysts had expected. Many think the period of volatility will draw to a close by the end of March. At that point, a recovery will begin that should gain strength as the year progresses.
crematoria
n. 火葬场;
[词典] crematorium的复数;
crematorium
n. 火葬场
immense
adj. 巨大的，广大的
volatility
n. 挥发性, 挥发度, 反复无常, 轻浮
常态不会马上到来。据估计，每天有3700万人感染新冠病毒。医院人满为患。火葬场也是如此。官员们承认死亡人数很少，但维持生产线运转面临巨大挑战。12月24日，汽车制造商特斯拉在上海的工厂停产。一位行政人员担心，当地官员可能会封锁城镇以控制病例。德国商业银行的Tommy Wu说，开放的头三个月经济可能会收缩。但经济复苏的到来将早于分析师的预期。许多人认为，波动期将在3月底结束。到那时，经济复苏将开始，并随着今年的进展而增强。
Li Pengfei, until recently a product manager at an industrial-software firm in Beijing, is among those desperate for a return to normality. Mr Li lost his job in February when restrictions made basic duties, such as travelling to meet clients, near-impossible. He spent part of last year living with his sister, but was forced to return home to Jilin province in China’s far northeast, where economic prospects were dismal even before the pandemic. “Things seem so volatile that even the big companies are downsizing,” he says.
desperate
adj. 绝望的；不顾一切的，拼命的；极度渴望的，极其需要…的；（局势）危急的，严峻的
dismal
adj. 忧郁的, 凄凉的, 惨淡的, 阴沉的
n. 〈口〉忧郁, 〈美〉沼地
volatile
adj. 易变的, 无定性的, 无常性的, 可能急剧波动的
不久前还在北京一家工业软件公司担任产品经理的李鹏飞(音)就是渴望回归正常生活的人之一。今年2月，由于种种限制，他几乎不可能履行出差会见客户等基本职责，因此丢掉了工作。他去年有一段时间和妹妹住在一起，但被迫回到中国东北的吉林省，那里的经济前景甚至在大流行之前就很暗淡。他表示:“形势似乎如此不稳定，连大公司都在裁员。”
Elsewhere in the world bosses worry about a “great resignation”, with workers quitting jobs or dropping out of the labour force altogether. This is less of a concern in China. The government did not hand out stimulus cheques willy-nilly, as America’s did, during the pandemic. People who lost jobs, such as Mr Li, will return to work when the opportunity arises, economists believe, helping to steady factory output.
resignation
n. 辞职; 辞呈; 屈从; 顺从, 听任; [棋]认输
cheque
n. 支票
willy-nilly
adv. 不管愿意不愿意, 无论想要不想要, 随意地, 乱糟糟地
adj. 拖延的, 不管愿不愿意的
在世界其他地方，老板们担心的是“大辞职”，即工人辞职或完全退出劳动力大军。这在中国不那么令人担忧。政府并没有像美国在疫情期间那样，随随便便地发放刺激支票。经济学家们相信，像李先生这样失业的人将在机会出现时重返工作岗位，这有助于稳定工厂产出。
Xi’s spending spree
Consumption will rise, too. Incomes have fallen, but zero-covid also squashed spending, as people avoided travelling and eating out. All told, households saved one-third of their income last year. Many will be getting back on their feet after job losses, stagnating pay and declines in the value of their homes, meaning the splurge will be limited. But Jacqueline Rong of BNP Paribas, a bank, reckons household consumption will grow by about 9% in 2023—a big improvement on the previous year’s growth rate, if not full retribution for the enforced abstemiousness of recent years.
spree
n. （常指过分）玩乐，放纵
stagnate
v. 停滞, 不发展, 不进步, 因不流动而变得污浊
splurge
v. 挥霍, 乱花（钱）, 糟蹋（钱）
n. 挥霍, 乱花钱, 糟蹋钱
retribution
n. 报应, 惩罚, 报复
abstemious
adj. 饮食有度的, 有节制的
消费也会增加。收入下降了，但零冠肺炎也抑制了支出，因为人们避免旅行和外出就餐。总之，去年家庭将收入的三分之一存了起来。许多人将在失业、工资停滞和房屋价值下跌后重新站稳脚跟，这意味着挥霍将是有限的。但是法国巴黎银行的Jacqueline Rong认为家庭消费在2023年将增长9%——如果不是对近年来强制实行的节约型消费的完全报复的话，这是对前一年增长率的巨大改善。
Reopening will also benefit China’s troubled property sector, though quite how much depends on political decisions. In November, as covid restrictions were relaxed, policymakers eased property developers’ access to financing. This should help stronger firms avoid default and at last finish building flats they have already sold to homebuyers. At China’s Central Economic Work Conference in December, policymakers promised to support “fundamental demand”, as opposed to speculative purchases. To that end, they may make further cuts to mortgage rates and down-payment requirements.
flat
adj. 水平的；平坦的；平滑的；枯燥的；无趣的；缺乏热情的；不景气的；萧条的；生意清淡的（价格）固定的；瘪的；扁平的；平淡的；单调的；断然的；绝对的
n. 公寓, 单元房, 平跟鞋, 一套房间
adv. 断然, （尤指贴着另一表面）平直地, 直截了当地, 低于标准音高
v. 住公寓, 合住公寓
speculative
adj. 推测的, 猜测的, 推断的, 揣摩的
重新开放也将有利于中国陷入困境的房地产行业，尽管这在很大程度上取决于政治决策。11月，随着covid限制的放松，政策制定者放宽了房地产开发商的融资渠道。这将有助于实力较强的公司避免违约，并最终完成已出售给购房者的公寓建设。在去年12月召开的中央经济工作会议上，政策制定者承诺支持“基本面需求”，而不是投机性购买。为此，他们可能会进一步降低抵押贷款利率和首付要求。
Forecasts for the performance of the property sector, broadly defined to include construction, services and furnishings, range widely. Activity in the industry could grow by 3% this year, according to Jing Liu of HSBC, a bank—enough to add 0.9 percentage points to China’s GDP growth. A more optimistic scenario has activity expanding by 5%, she thinks, adding 1.5 points to growth. Some households might decide that now is a good time to “buy the dip”, before prices revive or regulatory restrictions on home purchases return.
construction
n. 建设，建立；结构，构造
furnishing
n. 供给(装备)
dip
v. 蘸, 浸, （使）下降, 把（汽车前灯的）远光调为近光
n. 游一游, 泡一泡, （通常指暂时的）减少, 凹陷处
revive
v. （使）苏醒，复活；重新使用；重新上演
regulatory
adj. 管理的, 调整的, 监管的
对房地产行业(广义上包括建筑、服务和家具)表现的预测范围很大。汇丰银行(HSBC)的刘晶(Jing Liu)表示，今年该行业的活动可能增长3%——足以为中国的GDP增长增加0.9个百分点。她认为，更乐观的情况是经济活动将扩张5%，为增长率增加1.5个百分点。一些家庭可能认为，在房价回升或对购房的监管限制恢复之前，现在是“逢低买入”的好时机。
The economic implications of reopening extend further afield. Zero-covid kept a lid on China’s demand for global goods, services and commodities. During the lockdown of Shanghai in the first half of last year, for instance, the country’s oil demand fell by 2m barrels per day. In the past, such drops in Chinese spending would have deprived the world economy of a crucial engine of growth. The covid downturn has been different. It coincided with an overheated economy in America and an interrupted supply of energy across Europe. “At least this time China isn’t contributing to inflation,” says Louis Kuijs of S&P Global, a rating agency.
implication
n. 暗示，含义；可能引发的后果
afield
adv. 在更远处
Don’t go too far afield or we might lose you.
不要走得太远，要不然我们会找不到你的。
lid
n. 盖子；眼睑；限制
v. 给装盖子
coincide
v. 同时发生；相同，相符；位置重合，重叠
They didn’t coincide in opinion.
他们的意见不统一。
interrupted
adj. 打断的
重新开放对经济的影响进一步扩大。“零疫情”抑制了中国对全球商品、服务和大宗商品的需求。例如，在去年上半年上海封城期间，该国的石油需求每天下降了200万桶。在过去，中国支出的大幅下降会让世界经济失去一个至关重要的增长引擎。新冠疫情的低迷有所不同。与此同时，美国经济过热，欧洲能源供应中断。评级机构标普全球的Louis Kuijs说:“至少这次中国没有助长通货膨胀。”
China’s recovery will lift global growth for the simple reason that the country is a large part of the world economy. HSBC reckons that one year from now, in the first quarter of 2024, China’s GDP could be as much as 10% higher than it will be in the first three troubled months of 2023 (see chart 1). According to our rough calculation, a recovering China could account for two-thirds of global growth in that period.
calculation
n. 计算
中国的复苏将提振全球经济增长，原因很简单，因为中国是世界经济的重要组成部分。汇丰银行(HSBC)估计，一年后，也就是2024年第一季度，中国的GDP可能会比2023年前三个困难的月高出10%(见图1)。根据我们的粗略计算，在此期间，一个正在复苏的中国可能会贡献全球经济增长的三分之二。
In time, however, China’s recovery may have unfortunate side-effects. In other big economies, the binding constraint on economic expansion is monetary policy, as central banks raise interest rates to suppress inflation. If China’s reopening looks like raising global demand and therefore price pressure to an uncomfortable degree, central banks elsewhere may have to respond by tightening policy to offset the threat. In such a scenario, the impact of China’s reopening on the rest of the world may show up not in higher growth but in higher inflation or interest rates.
constraint
n. 限制；限定；约束，严管
expansion
n. 扩大；扩充；发展；膨胀
然而，随着时间的推移，中国的复苏可能会产生令人遗憾的副作用。在其他大型经济体中，货币政策是经济扩张的约束性约束，央行会提高利率以抑制通胀。如果中国的重新开放看起来会将全球需求推高，从而导致价格压力达到令人不安的程度，其他国家的央行可能不得不通过收紧政策来应对，以抵消这一威胁。在这种情况下，中国重新开放对世界其他地区的影响可能不会表现为更高的增长，而是表现为更高的通胀或利率。
China’s most direct channel of influence is through commodities. It consumes almost one-fifth of the world’s oil, over half of refined copper, nickel and zinc, and more than three-fifths of iron ore. On November 4th the mere rumour of a reopening caused a 7% increase in the price of copper by the end of the day. As the rumours are realised, China’s demand for metals, crops and energy will help exporters of commodities, hurt importers and give the world’s central banks another headache in their fight against inflation.
ore
n. 矿, 矿石, 矿砂
rumour
n. 谣言，传闻
realise
. 了解, 意识到; 实现
中国最直接的影响力渠道是通过大宗商品。中国消耗了全球近五分之一的石油，超过一半的精炼铜、镍和锌，以及超过五分之三的铁矿石。11月4日，仅仅是关于重新开放的传言就导致铜价在当天收盘时上涨了7%。随着传言成为现实，中国对金属、农作物和能源的需求将有利于大宗商品出口国，损害进口国，并让世界各国央行在抗击通胀时又一个头疼的问题。
Heavy metal demand
China’s appetite for metals remained strong during zero-covid, as the government encouraged spending on electric vehicles, renewable energy and other forms of green infrastructure, all of which require lots of aluminium, copper and other metals. But buyers lacked the confidence to stock up on these materials: inventories of copper fell to their skimpiest in 15 years. Reopening will encourage restocking. In November Goldman Sachs, a bank, reckoned the price of copper would increase to $9,000 per tonne within 12 months. Now it thinks the price will reach $11,000.
appetite
n. 胃口, 食欲; 欲望; 爱好
skimpy
adj. 小而暴露的, 不够的
tonne
n. 吨（等于 1 000 公斤）
在零冠肺炎期间，中国对金属的需求仍然强劲，因为政府鼓励在电动汽车、可再生能源和其他形式的绿色基础设施上进行投资，所有这些都需要大量的铝、铜和其他金属。但买家缺乏囤积这些材料的信心:铜库存降至15年来的最低水平。重新开业将鼓励重新进货。11月，高盛银行预计铜价将在12个月内上涨至每吨9000美元。现在它认为价格将达到1.1万美元。
Demand for energy proved less resilient, particularly towards the end of zero-covid. China’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell by about one-fifth in the first 11 months of 2022, compared with the same period of the previous year. This allowed Europe to increase purchases to make up for the loss of Russian gas. Thus China’s zero-covid policy acted as a counterweight to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—one blunder helping to save Europe from the other.
resilient
adj. 可迅速恢复的, 有适应力的, 有弹性（或弹力）的, 能复原的
counterweight
n. 抗衡因素, 平衡重量
v. 同“counterweigh”
blunder
n. 愚蠢的错误
v. 犯（愚蠢的）错误；跌跌撞撞地走
事实证明，能源需求的弹性较弱，特别是在零冠疫情结束之前。与去年同期相比，2022年前11个月中国液化天然气(LNG)进口量下降了约五分之一。这使得欧洲能够增加购买，以弥补俄罗斯天然气的损失。因此，中国的零冠政策对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰起到了平衡作用——一个错误帮助欧洲从另一个错误中拯救出来。
Analysts assume a modest rise in Chinese LNG imports this year, based on the contracts buyers have already signed and their reluctance to buy LNG when prices are high. If imports recover faster, Europe could feel the pinch. In a stress test in December the International Energy Agency (IEA), an official forecaster, assumed Chinese demand would increase by about a quarter in the year ahead, returning to 2021 levels; Russia would cut off piped gas to Europe entirely; and winter would start punctually. In such a scenario Europe would face a shortfall of 27bn cubic metres of gas, equivalent to 7% of annual demand, even after its current efforts to increase supply are taken into account. The IEA warns that if nothing else is done, Europe may be forced to introduce rationing.
pinch
v. 捏, 掐, 拧, 捏住; 使紧缺, 节制
n. 捏, 掐, 拧; 一撮; 紧缺; 紧急情况
adj. 【棒球】由替补击球员完成的, 替补的
punctually
adv. 准时地，如期地
shortfall
n. 差额, 缺口, 亏空
cubic
adj. 立方的；立方体的
metre
n. 米； 公尺；用于竞赛名称；（诗的）格律
rationing
n. 配给制, 定量配给政策
v. “ration”的现在分词
分析师们认为，基于买家已经签署的合同，以及他们在价格高企时不愿购买液化天然气，中国今年的液化天然气进口量将温和增长。如果进口恢复得更快，欧洲可能会感到压力。在12月的压力测试中，官方预测机构国际能源署(IEA)假设中国的需求在未来一年将增长约四分之一，恢复到2021年的水平;俄罗斯将完全切断输往欧洲的管道天然气;冬天会准时到来。在这种情况下，欧洲将面临270亿立方米的天然气短缺，相当于年需求的7%，即使考虑到目前增加供应的努力。国际能源署警告称，如果不采取其他措施，欧洲可能会被迫实行配给。
The impact on oil could also be significant. If China’s economy makes a full recovery in 2023, it will gradually increase crude imports throughout the year until it has added an average of 1m barrels a day, reckons Soni Kumari of ANZ, a bank. This will compensate for reduced demand in Europe and America, both of which are courting recession. Indeed, Goldman Sachs forecasts that China’s increased appetite could push up oil prices by about $15 per barrel. The price of Brent could exceed $100 again in the third quarter of this year, it reckons, making the global battle against inflation still more difficult.
compensate
v. 补偿；弥补；赔偿，赔款
Who will compensate for the losses?
谁将赔偿损失？
court
n. 法庭; 法院; 全体法官(审判员); 审判庭; 球场; 朝廷; 宫廷; 院子; 殷勤; 追求, 求婚
v. 追求, 求婚; 寻求, 吸引; 向…献殷勤; 招致
recession
n. 经济衰退, 经济萎缩, 退后, 撤回
appetite
n. 胃口, 食欲; 欲望; 爱好
The walk gave me a good appetite.
散步使我胃口大开。
对石油的影响也可能很大。澳新银行(ANZ)的Soni Kumari估计，如果中国经济在2023年全面复苏，它将在全年逐步增加原油进口，直到平均每天增加100万桶。这将弥补欧洲和美国需求的减少，这两个国家都在走向衰退。事实上，高盛(Goldman Sachs)预测，中国需求的增加可能将油价推高每桶约15美元。该机构估计，布伦特原油价格可能在今年第三季度再次超过100美元，这将使全球抗击通胀的斗争更加困难。
Higher commodity prices will be a boon to exporters like Chile and Brazil, but hurt China’s energy-importing neighbours. For India, the loss from higher prices may cancel out gains from increased exports to the mainland. Other countries, more tightly enmeshed in China’s manufacturing supply chain, seem better placed to benefit. But raw statistics can be deceptive. Although Taiwan’s merchandise exports to the mainland were equivalent to more than 15% of GDP in 2021, many were components for products that are ultimately sold to customers outside China, and may thus be unaffected by the change of policy.
boon
n. 非常有用的东西, 益处
Falling phone prices are a boon for consumers.
手机价格下跌对消费者来说是一大福音。
enmeshed
adj. 被缠住的；落入圈套的
deceptive
adj. 欺骗性的, 误导的, 骗人的
merchandise
n. 商品；货品
v. 推销；（运用广告等）销售
大宗商品价格上涨将有利于智利和巴西等出口国，但会损害中国的能源进口邻国。对印度来说，价格上涨带来的损失可能会抵消对中国大陆出口增加带来的收益。其他与中国制造业供应链联系更紧密的国家，似乎更有可能从中受益。但原始数据可能具有欺骗性。尽管2021年台湾对大陆的商品出口相当于GDP的15%以上，但许多是最终销售给中国大陆以外客户的产品零部件，因此可能不会受到政策变化的影响。
The biggest boost to neighbours will come not from selling goods to China but from selling tourist destinations to Chinese citizens (see chart 2). Ni Na, a mother of two from Shanghai, travelled overseas about five times a year pre-pandemic, often spending three or four months a year outside the country. She attempted to travel once within China in 2022, only to give up owing to restrictions. When quarantine requirements are lifted, Ms Ni will get back on the road. She has renewed her passport and her sons’ travel documents in anticipation.
destination
n. 目的地，终点
anticipation
n. 预期, 期望, 预计, 预料
对邻国最大的推动将不是向中国出售商品，而是向中国公民出售旅游目的地(见表2)。倪娜(音译)来自上海，是两个孩子的母亲，在疫情前每年出国约五次，通常每年有三到四个月的时间在国外。她曾试图在2022年在中国境内旅行一次，但由于限制而放弃。当隔离要求解除后，倪女士将重新上路。她已经为自己的护照和儿子的旅行证件续签了。
Thailand, a popular destination, could enjoy a three-percentage-point boost to growth once China has fully reopened, reckons Goldman Sachs. That would remove the uncertainty weighing on local asset prices, including the currency, says Arup Raha of Oxford Economics, reducing pressure on the central bank to raise rates—welcome freedom in a country where output is still below potential. But the biggest winner will be Hong Kong. Increased exports, which include tourism, could boost its GDP by almost 8% after full reopening. The city used to attract more than 4m mainland visitors a month. Without them, it has felt roomier but poorer.
output
n. （人、机器、机构的）产量, 输出, 输出功率, 输出量
v. 输出
roomy
adj. 宽敞的；宽大的
高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计，一旦中国完全重新开放，热门旅游目的地泰国的经济增长率将提高3个百分点。牛津经济研究院的Arup Raha说，这将消除影响当地资产价格(包括货币)的不确定性，减轻中央银行提高利率的压力——在一个产出仍低于潜力的国家，这是受欢迎的自由。但最大的赢家将是香港。全面重新开放后，包括旅游业在内的出口增长可能会使其GDP增长近8%。过去，香港每月吸引逾400万内地游客。没有他们，它感觉更宽敞，但更贫穷。
The Communist Party is deft at rewriting history. Yet Mr Xi will struggle to shake the damage done to his reputation in 2022. The clumsy enforcement of zero-covid, followed by its hasty abandonment, will go down as an error for the ages. Many investment houses adjusted their risk assessments for China, and will allocate less to the country over the next three years unless they are compensated for it. About $18bn of foreign exchange flowed out of China in November, up from $11bn in October. These outflows are expected to reverse when China’s economy stabilises in 2023, but a swift return to the type of inflows witnessed before the pandemic is unlikely.
deft
adj. 熟练的, 灵巧的, 机敏的, 有技巧的
clumsy
adj. 笨拙的, 不灵巧的, 无技巧的, 冒犯人的
hasty
adj. 匆忙的, 仓促而就的, 草率的, 仓促行事
abandonment
n. 放弃, 抛弃, 遗弃, 离弃
allocate
v. 拨…（给）, 划…（归）, 分配…（给）
compensate
v. 补偿；弥补；赔偿，赔款
outflow
n. 外流, 流出量
overflow 充满，溢出
共产党善于改写历史。“零covid”政策的笨拙执行，以及随后的仓促放弃，将被视为一个错误而载入史册。许多投资机构调整了对中国的风险评估，并将在未来3年减少对中国的投资，除非它们得到补偿。11月，约180亿美元外汇流出中国，高于10月的110亿美元。预计在2023年中国经济企稳时，资本外流将出现逆转，但不太可能迅速回到疫情前的资本流入水平。
Deep damage has been done to parts of China’s supply chain. A covid outbreak, followed by protests, at a plant making Apple’s iPhone 14 in central China has delayed orders for the product. For foreign firms, the crisis was the first time that central policy interfered with local officials’ commitment to keep factories running. Many companies are now willing to pay more to manufacture elsewhere. Take the process of launching new products, which requires an almost continuous flow of researchers and scientists between headquarters, usually in the West, and plants in China. The covid years made this dance impossible. Engineers stopped visiting; fewer new products were launched in the country. Multinational firms have been forced, often reluctantly, to launch elsewhere.
commitment
n. 承诺, 投入, 保证, 许诺；委托；献身
中国部分供应链受到了严重损害。中国中部一家生产苹果iPhone 14的工厂爆发了新冠疫情，随后引发了抗议活动，推迟了该产品的订单。对于外国公司来说，这场危机是中央政策第一次干涉地方官员维持工厂运转的承诺。许多公司现在愿意花更多的钱在其他地方生产。以推出新产品的过程为例，这需要在总部(通常位于西方)和中国工厂之间几乎不间断地输送研究人员和科学家。新冠疫情让这种舞蹈变得不可能。工程师们不再来访;在该国推出的新产品更少。跨国公司被迫(通常是不情愿地)在其他地方开展业务。
But after years of zero-covid, bosses have become more comfortable with moving away from China. Inbound investment in new “greenfield” factories has plummeted (see chart 3). At the same time, the number of firms moving operations out of China has jumped, says Alex Bryant of East West Associates, a supply-chain consultant. Most of the moves Mr Bryant’s firm has assisted with over the past year have been outbound. He thinks the reopening of China is unlikely to lead to an immediate turnaround in the direction of traffic.
Inbound
adj. 到达的, 归航的
plummet
v. 暴跌, 速降
n. 测锤(钓丝的)坠子, 线锤, 铅锤线, 锤规
consultant
n. 顾问, 高级顾问医师, 会诊医师
outbound
adj. 向外的, 出港的, 离开某地的
v. 跳过
turnaround
n. 转机，好转；（轮船、飞机的）终点装卸时间；周转时间；处理时间；彻底转变
但在多年无疫情后，老板们对离开中国变得更加放心。对新“绿地”工厂的外来投资大幅下降(见表3)。与此同时，将业务迁出中国的公司数量激增，东西方联合公司的供应链顾问亚历克斯•布莱恩特说。在过去的一年里，布莱恩特的公司所协助的大部分交易都是对外的。他认为，中国重新开放不太可能立即导致交通方向的好转。
A thousand meetings
Policymakers are waking up to the danger. Officials and businessfolk from Fujian, Guangdong, Sichuan, Zhejiang and elsewhere are planning trips abroad to win back investors, according to a state-media report. “A meeting is worth a thousand emails,” it said. In December China’s leaders announced a focus on attracting foreign money, emphasising that local governments should prioritise finding investors. Such language has not been used at a Politburo meeting in many years, notes Robin Xing of Morgan Stanley, a bank. “They clearly want to keep their place in the global supply chain,” he says. Nevertheless, making up for the chaos of 2022 will require an awful lot of meetings. ■
businessfolk
商业人士
prioritise
v. 按重要性排列；划分优先顺序 ；优先考虑或处理
awful
adj. 可怕的，骇人的；难过的；极坏的，糟糕的，极讨厌的；非常的，极大的；使人敬畏的，庄严的
adv. 极其，非常
政策制定者正在意识到这种危险。据官方媒体报道，福建、广东、四川、浙江等地的官员和商人正计划出国旅行，以赢回投资者。“一次会议抵得上一千封电子邮件，”它说。去年12月，中国领导人宣布了吸引外资的重点，强调地方政府应优先寻找投资者。摩根士丹利银行的Robin Xing指出，这样的语言已经多年没有在政治局会议上使用过了。他表示:“他们显然希望保持自己在全球供应链中的地位。”然而，弥补2022年的混乱将需要大量的会议。■
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