Disney’s troubles show how technology has changed the business of culture
At 100, the mouse can still roar. But it faces a new kind of rival
Jan 19th 2023
“WHY DO WE have to grow up?” Walt Disney once wondered. As it launches its centenary celebrations on January 27th, the Walt Disney Company has sustained its appeal to the young and young-at-heart. This year Hollywood’s biggest studio will invest more in original content than any other firm. It dominates the global box office, with four of last year’s ten biggest hits, and has more streaming subscriptions than anyone else. Its intellectual property (IP) is turned into merchandise ranging from lunchboxes to lightsabers, and exploited in theme parks that are churning out healthy profits even as covid-19 lingers. More than just a business, Disney is perhaps the most successful culture factory the world has ever known.
roar
v. 吼叫, 咆哮, 叫喊, 大声地说
n. 吼叫, 咆哮, （风或海的）呼啸声, （机器的）隆隆声
centenary
n. 100 周年纪念
adj. 一百年的, 一百周年纪念的
hit
v. 打, 打击, 击中, 命中，达到
n. 打, 击中, 命中, 很受欢迎的人（或事物）
merchandise
n. 商品；货品
v. 推销；（运用广告等）销售
lunchbox
n. 饭盒
lightsaber
网络 光剑; 激光剑; 光刀;
exploit
v. 利用；开拓，开采；压榨；剥削
n. 勋绩，功绩
churn
v. 剧烈搅动, （使）猛烈翻腾, 恶心（忧虑、厌恶或恐惧的强烈感觉）
n. （制作黄油的）搅乳器, （旧时）盛奶大罐
linger
v. 停留，逗留；徘徊；花很长时间做（某事），磨蹭；苟延残喘
“为什么我们必须长大?”华特·迪士尼曾经想过。1月27日，华特迪士尼公司迎来了它的百年庆典，它对年轻人和心态年轻的人保持着吸引力。今年，这家好莱坞最大的电影公司将在原创内容上投入比其他任何公司都多。它主导着全球票房，去年十大热门影片中有四部是它的，而且它的流媒体订阅量比其他任何公司都多。其知识产权(IP)被转化为从午餐盒到光剑等各种商品，并被用于主题公园，即使在新冠肺炎仍在持续期间，这些主题公园仍在创造可观的利润。迪士尼不仅仅是一家企业，它可能是世界上最成功的文化工厂。
So the upheaval rocking the company today has relevance far beyond its empire. Uncertainty about the future profitability of Disney’s enormous entertainment portfolio has caused a rollercoaster ride in its share price. It threw out its chief executive in November and will soon replace its chairman. It also faces a rebellion from an activist investment firm that wants a board seat in what could turn into the biggest face-off since Michael Eisner, a previous CEO, was forced out in 2005. Disney’s trials are not just a boardroom drama. Similar crises are unfolding at other leading culture factories, from Warner Bros to Netflix. The reason is a technological revolution that is turning Hollywood upside down.
upheaval
n. 动荡, 剧变, 激变, 动乱
relevance
n. 适切, 现实意义, 有关系, 实质性
empire
n. 帝国; 大企业; 商业王国; 活动领域; 最高统治权
profitability
n. 盈利能力, 盈利性, 收益率, 利益性
portfolio
n. 文件夹, 职务, 有价证券组合, 公事包
rollercoaster
n. 过山车;云霄飞车; 许多急转突变;忽好忽坏;
rebellion
n. 叛乱, 反叛, 叛逆, 谋反;（对权威的）反抗，不服从
activist
n. 积极分子, 活跃分子
boardroom
n. 董事会会议室
upside down
phrase. 颠倒着,倒转着
phrase. 一团糟,混乱不堪
因此，如今撼动该公司的剧变，其意义远远超出了它的帝国范围。迪士尼庞大的娱乐投资组合未来盈利能力的不确定性导致其股价出现了过山车式的波动。去年11月，该公司解雇了首席执行官，并将很快更换董事长。该公司还面临一家激进投资公司的反对，该公司希望获得一个董事会席位，这可能成为自2005年前任首席执行官迈克尔•艾斯纳(Michael Eisner)被迫离职以来最大的对峙。迪士尼的考验不仅仅是一场董事会闹剧。从华纳兄弟(Warner Bros)到网飞(Netflix)，其他领先的文化工厂也出现了类似的危机。原因是一场技术革命正在把好莱坞搅得天翻地覆。
The continuing pre-eminence of a centenarian like Disney has confounded many predictions. Since the days of “Steamboat Willie”, Mickey Mouse’s first outing in 1928, there has been an explosion in the supply of video entertainment. Television, cable, home video and then the internet have offered increasing amounts of choice. Anyone with a phone can record video and make it accessible to billions of people, free of charge. More content is uploaded to YouTube every hour than Disney+ holds in its entire streaming catalogue.
eminence
n. 隆起, 显赫, 鼎鼎大名, 受尊敬的人
centenarian
n. 人瑞, 百岁人瑞
adj. 百岁(以上)的, 一百周年的
confounded
adj. 可恶的，讨厌的；混乱的，不知所措的，困惑的
v. （“confound”的过去分词和过去式）使吃惊，使困惑；混淆
cable
n. 缆绳，钢索；电缆；电报；有线传输系统
v. 发电报
catalogue
n. 目录，目录簿；一系列（坏事情）
v. 编入目录；登记详情
像迪士尼这样的百岁老人的持续卓越成就让许多预测都变得混乱。自1928年米老鼠第一次亮相“汽船威利”以来，视频娱乐的供应出现了爆炸式增长。电视、有线电视、家庭视频和互联网提供了越来越多的选择。任何有手机的人都可以录制视频，并让数十亿人免费观看。每小时上传到YouTube上的内容比Disney+整个流媒体目录中包含的内容还要多。
Many predicted that this surge of niche content would bring down mainstream hit-makers. They were mostly wrong. Infinite choice in entertainment has ruined the companies which produced middling content that people watched because there was nothing else on—witness the collapse in broadcast-television ratings. But those at the very top of the business have thrived. When anyone can watch anything, people flock to the best. Global streamers like Netflix and Amazon have more than 200m direct subscribers, once an unimaginable number.
niche
n. 壁龛, 舒适或称心的工作（或生活等）, （产品的）商机, 市场定位
adj. （产品）针对特定小群体的
thrive
v. 兴旺发达, 繁荣; 旺盛; 茁壮生长, 茂盛生长
许多人预测，这种小众内容的激增将压垮主流热门制作人。他们大多都错了。娱乐领域无限的选择摧毁了那些生产中等内容的公司，人们只能观看这些内容，因为没有其他东西——看看广播电视收视率的崩溃吧。但那些处于企业最高层的人却蓬勃发展。当任何人都能看任何节目时，人们就会趋之若鹜。Netflix和亚马逊(Amazon)等全球流媒体拥有超过2亿的直接订阅用户，这曾经是一个难以想象的数字。
Those who have fared best at a shrinking box office are the owners of IP that is already popular. As people visit cinemas less often and competition intensifies, studios have pumped money into films people will turn out to see even when they go only three or four times a year. America’s ten biggest films last year were all sequels or parts of a franchise; Disney’s upcoming slate includes an 80-year-old Harrison Ford returning for a fifth outing as Indiana Jones. It has not been a golden age for cinema, but for those at the top it has been a profitable one.
intensify
v. 加剧
sequel
n. 续集, 结果, 后续的事, 随之而来的事
franchise
n. 特许, （公司授予的）特许经销权, 获特许权的商业（或服务）机构；（公民）选举权
v. 授予（或出售）特许经销权（或经营权）
那些在不断缩水的票房中表现最好的是那些已经很受欢迎的IP的所有者。随着人们去电影院的次数减少和竞争加剧，电影公司将资金投入到人们即使一年只去三四次也会去看的电影中。去年美国最卖座的十部电影都是续集或系列电影的一部分;迪士尼即将推出的阵容包括80岁的哈里森·福特第五次回归饰演印第安纳·琼斯。对于电影行业来说，这并不是一个黄金时代，但对于那些高层来说，这是一个有利可图的时代。
Now technology is shaking things up again. Online distribution has enticed tech firms that make the hardware and software used for streaming. Silicon Valley is of a different scale from Tinseltown (Amazon’s growing advertising business is already three times bigger than Disney’s) and its moguls have no need to make money from streaming, which they see as an add-on to their main business. Hollywood initially wrote off the nerds. But the nerds have enough money to take creative risks. Last year Apple won the best-picture Oscar with “CODA”, a comedy-drama partly in sign language, less than three years after it entered the film business. The more fine content these new producers make and sell below cost, the greater the risk that older studios will fall from the top tier of media into the perilous middle.
entice
v. 诱使, 引诱
mogul
n. （尤指媒体、影视界的）大亨，大人物；（滑雪坡道上的）雪丘，雪墩
nerd
n. 书呆子；讨厌的人；电脑迷
perilous
adj. 危险的, 艰险的
现在，科技又一次颠覆了一切。在线分发吸引了为流媒体制作硬件和软件的科技公司。硅谷与好莱坞的规模不同(亚马逊不断增长的广告业务已经是迪士尼的三倍)，硅谷的巨头们不需要从流媒体中赚钱，他们认为这是他们主业的附加业务。好莱坞最初对这些书呆子不屑一顾。但是这些书呆子们有足够的钱来承担创造性的风险。去年，苹果公司凭借一部部分使用手语的喜剧片《CODA》获得奥斯卡最佳影片奖，而这距离苹果进入电影行业还不到三年。这些新制作人制作的优质内容越多，并以低于成本的价格出售，老牌工作室从顶级媒体跌落到危险的中层的风险就越大。
At the same time, new technology is allowing those lower down the “long tail” a better chance of reaching the profitable top. Inventions like game engines, which help with the creation of virtual sets, are lowering barriers to entry. Generative artificial intelligence, which can already make rudimentary video, may eventually lower them further. The first beneficiaries have been non-American film studios, which until recently struggled to nail first-class special effects. No longer. Two of the world’s highest-grossing films last year were Chinese—and when covid ebbs in China, expect that number to rise. China has yet to convert foreign audiences to hits like “Wolf Warrior 2” (tagline: “Anyone who offends China, wherever they are, must die”). But don’t bet that this will always be the case. China already has a globally successful social-media app in TikTok and produces video games that are international hits, including Tencent’s “Honour of Kings”, which is the world’s highest-earning mobile game.
Generative
adj. 有生产力的, 能生产的, 有生殖力的
rudimentary
adj. 基础的, 基本的, 未充分发展的, 原始的
beneficiary
n. 受益者, 受惠人, 遗产继承人
adj. (封建制度下)受封的, 采邑的, 臣服的
ebb
n. 退潮, 落潮
v. 衰退, 落, 衰弱, 减退
tagline
n. 〈美俚〉(高潮下的)结尾语
与此同时，新技术使那些处于“长尾”较低位置的企业更有机会达到盈利的顶端。游戏引擎之类的发明有助于创建虚拟场景，降低了进入门槛。生成式人工智能已经可以制作基本的视频，最终可能会进一步降低成本。第一批受益者是非美国电影制片厂，直到最近，他们还在努力打造一流的特效。不再。去年全球票房最高的电影中有两部是中国电影，当疫情在中国消退时，预计这一数字还会上升。中国尚未将外国观众转化为《战狼2》(广告语:“任何冒犯中国的人，无论在哪里，都必须死”)这样的热门影片。但不要认为这种情况会一直持续下去。中国已经有了一款在全球范围内成功的社交媒体应用抖音，并制作了一些在国际上大受欢迎的视频游戏，包括腾讯的《王者荣耀》，这是世界上收入最高的手机游戏。
Perhaps the most dramatic way technology could disrupt the culture business is by creating new categories of entertainment. Young adults in rich countries already devote more time to gaming than to broadcast television. Hollywood has been slow to catch on, but its Silicon Valley rivals are snapping up gaming IP. Microsoft’s proposed acquisition of Activision-Blizzard, whose games include “Call of Duty” and “Candy Crush”, is worth nearly ten times what Amazon paid for Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, home of James Bond and Rocky Balboa. Movies based on games are becoming as popular as games based on movies. A series based on “The Last of Us”, a post-apocalyptic game, seems to be a critical success. Sonic the Hedgehog was among last year’s biggest films and Mario is likely to be among this year’s. Nintendo is opening a new Mario theme park next month—in Hollywood, no less.
category
n. 种类，类别
acquisition
n. (技能、习惯或品质的)习得, 培养; (一家公司对另一家公司的) 收购; 资产获得, 获得物
apocalyptic
adj. 描述（历史）大动乱的, 预示（未来）大灾变的, 似末世的, 像世界末日的
Sonic
adj. 声音的, 声速的
Hedgehog
n. 刺猬
也许科技颠覆文化产业的最引人注目的方式是创造新的娱乐类别。富裕国家的年轻人花在玩游戏上的时间已经超过了看电视的时间。好莱坞迟迟没有跟上，但它的硅谷竞争对手正在抢购游戏IP。微软提议收购动视暴雪，其游戏包括“使命召唤”和“糖果粉碎传奇”，其价值几乎是亚马逊收购米高梅的十倍，米高梅是詹姆斯·邦德和洛奇·巴尔博亚的家。根据游戏改编的电影和根据电影改编的游戏一样受欢迎。一个基于“最后生还者”的系列游戏，一个后启示录游戏，似乎取得了巨大的成功。《刺猬索尼克》是去年最卖座的电影之一，《马里奥》很可能是今年最卖座的电影之一。任天堂下个月将在好莱坞开设一个新的马里奥主题公园。
The mouse and the long tail
The great creative factories of Hollywood will have to adapt if they want to survive. Another successful era is not beyond their reach. Disney’s century has been one of endless reinvention, in business terms as well as artistic ones, as the company has moved its output from projectors to cables to cassettes and now bytes. It will probably continue to innovate. Still, there are already signs that much of the coming century’s popular culture will be dreamt up in places other than Hollywood. For audiences tiring of sequels, that may be a welcome twist. ■
invention
n. 发明, 创造, 虚构, 编造; 创造力
cassette
n. 暗盒, 磁带盒, 盒式磁带, 卡式磁带
v. 用盒式磁带[胶卷或录像磁带]录制
innovate
v. 创新, 引入（新事物、思想或方法）, 改革
dreamt
n. 梦, 梦想, 理想, 愿望
v. 梦想, 做梦, 梦见, 想象
好莱坞伟大的创意工厂如果想生存下去，就必须适应。另一个成功的时代并非遥不可及。迪士尼的世纪是一个不断革新的世纪，在商业和艺术方面都是如此，该公司从投影仪到有线电视，再到磁带，现在又到字节。它可能会继续创新。尽管如此，已经有迹象表明，下个世纪的流行文化将在好莱坞以外的地方诞生。对于厌倦了续集的观众来说，这可能是一个受欢迎的转折。■
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