How China’s reopening will disrupt the world economy
A tale of death, growth and inflation
Jan 5th 2023
FOR THE better part of three years—1,016 days to be exact—China will have been closed to the world. Most foreign students left the country at the start of the pandemic. Tourists have stopped visiting. Chinese scientists have stopped attending foreign conferences. Expat executives were barred from returning to their businesses in China. So when the country opens its borders on January 8th, abandoning the last remnants of its “zero-covid” policy, the renewal of commercial, intellectual and cultural contact will have huge consequences, mostly benign.
disrupt
v. 扰乱, 打乱, 使中断
tale
n. （尤指充满惊险的）故事, 历险记, （精彩但不一定完全真实的）讲述
exact
adj. 精确的, 准确的, 严谨的, 严格的
v. 要求, 索取, 迫使, 强迫
Expat
n. 同 expatriate（n. 移居外国者）
barred
adj. 有栅栏的；有条纹的
v. 禁止；阻挡，拦住；（用铁条或木条）封住（bar的过去式和过去分词）
remnant
n. 残余部分, 剩余部分, （织物的）零头, 布头
adj. 剩余的
renewal
n. 重新开始；恢复；有效期延长；改进；振兴；翻新
benign
adj. 善良的, 和善的, 慈祥的, 良性的
在三年的大部分时间里——确切地说是1016天——中国将对世界关闭。大多数外国学生在疫情开始时离开了这个国家。游客们不再来了。中国科学家已经不再参加国外的会议。外籍高管被禁止返回他们在中国的企业。因此，当该国于1月8日开放边境，放弃“零covid”政策的最后残余时，商业、知识和文化联系的恢复将产生巨大的影响，大部分是良性的。
First, however, there will be horror. Inside China, the virus is raging. Tens of millions of people are catching it every day . Hospitals are overwhelmed. Although the zero-covid policy saved many lives when it was introduced (at great cost to individual liberties), the government failed to prepare properly for its relaxation by stockpiling drugs, vaccinating more of the elderly and adopting robust protocols to decide which patients to treat where. Our modelling suggests that, if the virus spreads unchecked, some 1.5m Chinese will die in the coming months.
horror
n. 恐惧, 厌恶, 震惊, 对某事物的强烈畏惧（或憎恨）
raging
adj. 强烈的, 极其强大的, 猛烈的, 很严重的
v. 席卷，发火（rage的现在分词）
robust
adj. 强健的, 强壮的, 结实的, 耐用的
protocol
n. 议定书, 礼仪, 外交礼节, 条约草案
v. 打(草稿), (把…)记入议定书
然而，首先会有恐惧。在中国国内，病毒正在肆虐。每天有数千万人感染这种病毒。医院人满为患。尽管零冠政策在推出时挽救了许多生命(以牺牲个人自由为代价)，但政府未能为放松政策做好适当准备，囤积药物，为更多老年人接种疫苗，并采用强有力的方案来决定哪些患者在哪里治疗。我们的模型表明，如果病毒不受控制地传播，未来几个月将有约150万中国人死亡。
There is not much outsiders can do to help. For fear of looking weak, the Chinese government spurns even offers of free, effective vaccines from Europe. But the rest of the world can prepare for the economic effects of the Communist Party’s great U-turn. These will not be smooth. China’s economy could contract in the first quarter, especially if local officials reverse course and seal off towns to keep cases down. But eventually economic activity will rebound sharply, along with Chinese demand for goods, services and commodities. The impact will be felt on the beaches of Thailand, across firms such as Apple and Tesla, and at the world’s central banks. China’s reopening will be the biggest economic event of 2023.
spurn
v. （尤指傲慢地）拒绝
n. 拒绝, 藐视, 唾弃, 不理睬
contract
n. 合同，契约
v. 签合同；缩小；感染
seal
v. 密封, 封住; 盖印; 封锁
n. 印章; 封条; 海豹; 标志
外界也无能为力。由于担心显得软弱，中国政府甚至拒绝欧洲提供免费有效的疫苗。但世界其他地区可以为共产党180度大转弯的经济影响做好准备。这些过程不会一帆风顺。中国经济可能会在第一季度出现收缩，特别是如果地方官员改变方针，封锁城镇以控制病例的话。但最终经济活动将大幅反弹，中国对商品、服务和大宗商品的需求也将大幅反弹。泰国的海滩，苹果和特斯拉这样的公司，以及世界各国的中央银行都将感受到这种影响。中国重新开放将是2023年最大的经济事件。
As the year progresses and the worst of the covid wave passes, many of the sick will return to work. Shoppers and travellers will spend more freely. Some economists reckon that GDP in the first three months of 2024 could be a tenth higher than in the troubled first quarter of 2023. Such a sharp rebound in such a huge economy means that China alone could power much of global growth over the period.
随着时间的推移，新冠疫情最严重的时期过去了，许多病人将重返工作岗位。购物者和旅行者将更加自由地消费。一些经济学家估计，2024年前三个月的GDP可能比陷入困境的2023年第一季度高出十分之一。如此庞大的经济体出现如此剧烈的反弹，意味着在此期间，仅中国就可以为全球增长提供很大一部分动力。
The party is banking on it. It hopes to be judged not on the tragedy its incompetence is compounding, but on the economic recovery to follow. In Xi Jinping’s year-end address, the party chief thanked pandemic workers for bravely sticking to their posts and, while nodding to “tough challenges” ahead, promised that “The light of hope is right in front of us.” He sounded eager to look past the pandemic, emphasising the chances of a swift economic revival in 2023 and offering reasons to be proud of living in a rising China under party rule.
tragedy
n. 悲剧, (文学)悲剧, 不幸, 灾难
incompetence
n. 无能力, 不胜任, 不称职
compounding
n. 复合物
compound
n. 复合物；化合物；复合词；有围墙的房群, 大院；用围墙围住的场地
adj. 复合的；化合的；混合的；综合的；组合的
v. 使复合；使化合；使混合；结合, 组合；增加, 加重，加剧
revival
n. 复兴, 复苏, 再流行, （戏剧的）重演
党就指望这一点了。它希望人们评判它的标准不是它的无能加剧的悲剧，而是随之而来的经济复苏。他似乎急于把眼光放远，强调2023年经济有可能迅速复苏，并为生活在党的统治下的崛起的中国感到自豪。
The ending of China’s self-imposed isolation will be good news for places that depended on Chinese spending. Hotels in Phuket and malls in Hong Kong suffered as Chinese were locked up at home. Now would-be travellers are flocking to travel websites. Bookings on Trip.com rose by 250% on December 27th compared with the previous day. Economists are pencilling in a GDP boost for Hong Kong of as much as 8% over time. Exporters of the commodities that China consumes will also benefit. The country buys a fifth of the world’s oil, over half of its refined copper, nickel and zinc, and more than three-fifths of its iron ore.
flock
n. 兽群，鸟群；一大群；大量，众多；絮屑，毛棉填料；植绒材料，柔软贴料
v. 聚集；蜂拥
copper
n. 铜, 铜币, 警察
adj. 铜(制)的, (紫)铜色的
v. 用铜板[铜皮]盖[包]
nickel
n. 镍, （美国和加拿大的） 5 分镍币
v. (〔英语〕 -ll-) 镀镍于
zinc
n. 锌, （非洲某些地方用于搭建屋顶、棚子等的）波纹铁板
v. 用锌包
对于那些依赖中国消费的国家来说，中国自我封闭的结束将是一个好消息。由于中国人被关在家里，普吉岛的酒店和香港的商场都受到了影响。现在，想要旅行的人都涌向旅游网站。12月27日，Trip.com上的预订量与前一天相比增长了250%。经济学家预计，随着时间的推移，香港的GDP最多将增长8%。中国消费的大宗商品出口国也将从中受益。该国购买了世界上五分之一的石油，超过一半的精炼铜、镍和锌，以及超过五分之三的铁矿石。
Elsewhere, though, China’s recovery will have painful side-effects. In much of the world it could show up not in higher growth, but in higher inflation or interest rates. Central banks are already raising rates at a frenetic pace to fight inflation. If China’s reopening increases price pressure to an uncomfortable degree, they will have to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Countries that import commodities, including much of the West, are at the greatest risk of such disruption.
frenetic
adj. 发狂似的, 狂乱的
然而，在其他地方，中国的复苏将带来痛苦的副作用。在世界大部分地区，它可能不会表现为更高的增长，而是表现为更高的通胀或利率。各国央行已经在以疯狂的速度加息以抗击通胀。如果中国的重新开放使价格压力增加到令人不安的程度，他们将不得不在更长时间内保持紧缩的货币政策。进口大宗商品的国家，包括大部分西方国家，面临着这种混乱的最大风险。
Take the oil market. Rising Chinese demand should more than compensate for faltering consumption in Europe and America, as their economies slow. According to Goldman Sachs, a bank, a rapid recovery in China could help push the price of Brent crude oil to $100 a barrel, an increase of a quarter compared with today’s prices (though still below the heights reached after Russia invaded Ukraine). Rising energy costs will prove another hurdle to taming inflation.
compensate
v. 补偿；弥补；赔偿，赔款
faltering
adj. 踉跄的, 不稳的, 颤抖的, 踌躇的
v. “falter”的现在分词
falter
v. 蹒跚, 畏缩, 衰弱, 衰退
n. 结巴, 踌躇, 不稳, 摇晃
My parents never faltered in their belief in me.
我父母从未动摇过对我的信心。
hurdle
n. 跨栏, 障碍, 难关, 跨栏赛
v. （奔跑中）跳越（某物）, 参加跨栏赛
以石油市场为例。随着欧洲和美国经济增长放缓，中国不断增长的需求应该足以弥补其消费疲软的影响。根据高盛银行的说法，中国经济的快速复苏有助于将布伦特原油价格推高至每桶100美元，较目前的价格上涨四分之一(尽管仍低于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的高点)。不断上涨的能源成本将成为抑制通胀的另一个障碍。
For Europe, China’s reopening is another reason not to be complacent about gas supplies later in the year. Zero-covid, by suppressing China’s demand for gas, made it less costly than it otherwise would have been for Europe to fill its storage tanks in 2022. A strong recovery in China will mean more competition for imports of liquefied natural gas. In December the International Energy Agency, a forecaster, warned of a scenario in which winter starts punctually in 2023 and Russia cuts off piped gas to Europe entirely. That could result in shortages amounting to as much as 7% of the continent’s annual consumption, forcing it to introduce rationing.
complacent
adj. 自满的, 自鸣得意的, 表现出自满的
suppress
v. 抑制，阻止；镇压，平定；查禁；封锁；忍住
liquefied
adj. 液化的
scenario
n. 方案；设想; 可能发生的事，可能出现的情况，设想的场景；（电影、戏剧等的）剧情梗概
punctually
adv. 准时地，如期地
对欧洲来说，中国的重新开放是今年晚些时候不要对天然气供应自满的另一个原因。零冠肺炎通过抑制中国的天然气需求，使欧洲在2022年填满天然气储罐的成本低于其他情况。中国的强劲复苏将意味着液化天然气进口面临更激烈的竞争。12月，预测机构国际能源署(International Energy Agency)警告称，2023年冬季将准时到来，俄罗斯将完全切断向欧洲输送的管道天然气。这可能会导致短缺达到非洲大陆年消费量的7%，迫使其实行定量配给。
For China itself, the post-pandemic normal will not be a return to the status quo ante. After watching the government enforce zero-covid in a draconian fashion and then scrap it without due preparation, many investment houses now see China as a riskier bet. Foreign firms are less confident that their operations will not be disrupted. Many are willing to pay higher costs to manufacture elsewhere. Inbound investment in new factories seems to be slowing, while the number of companies moving business outside China has jumped, by some accounts.
draconian
adj. 德拉古式的，严酷的，残忍的
scrap
n. 碎片，小块；丝毫；废料；口角
v. 废弃，取消
Inbound
adj. 到达的, 归航的
对中国本身来说，疫情后的常态不会是回到过去的现状。在目睹政府严厉执行零冠政策，然后又在没有适当准备的情况下废弃后，许多投资机构现在将中国视为一个风险更高的赌注。外国公司不太相信他们的业务不会受到干扰。许多公司愿意支付更高的成本在其他地方生产。一些数据显示，对新工厂的外来投资似乎正在放缓，而将业务转移到中国境外的公司数量却大幅增加。
Normal not normal
As Chinese officials struggle to repair the damage, they should remember some history. China’s previous great reopening, after the stultifying isolation of the Mao years, led to an explosion of prosperity as goods, people, investment and ideas surged across its borders in both directions. Both China and the world have benefited from such flows, something politicians in Beijing and Washington seldom acknowledge. With luck, China’s current reopening will ultimately succeed. But some of the paranoid, xenophobic mood that the party stoked during the pandemic years will surely linger. Exactly how open the new China will be remains to be seen. ■
stultify
v. 使显得愚蠢, 愚弄, 使自相矛盾, (由于其后的矛盾行为)使归于无效
explosion
n. 爆炸, 激增, 突增, 猛增
surge
v. 浪涌, 激增, 汹涌, 涌动
n. 激增, （强烈感情的）突发, 大量, 一大批
在中国官员努力修复损失之际，他们应该记住一些历史。在经历了毛时代的沉闷孤立之后，中国上一次的大开放带来了商品、人口、投资和思想的双向流动，带来了繁荣的爆发。中国和世界都从这种资本流动中受益，北京和华盛顿的政客很少承认这一点。如果幸运的话，中国目前的重新开放最终将取得成功。但在疫情期间，该党煽动的一些偏执和排外情绪肯定会持续下去。新中国究竟会有多开放还有待观察。■
1025 words