China’s property slump is easing, but the relief will be short-lived
Without reforms, the sector is doomed to cycles of boom and bust
Jan 26th 2023
中国房地产市场的低迷正在缓解，但这种缓解将是短暂的
如果不进行改革，该行业注定会陷入繁荣与萧条的循环
THE LOVE-HATE relationship goes on. For almost two years China’s leaders cracked down on borrowing to build and bet on property, plunging the market into a crisis. Now that the economy has been weakened by the failures of the “zero-covid” policy, the government is racing to rescue real estate. Ni Hong, China’s housing minister, has said his ambition this year is to restore confidence; a series of measures announced in the past few months seek to make it easier for developers to raise capital. These efforts are reviving the property market. Unfortunately, they leave it just as vulnerable to boom and bust as ever.
revive
v. （使）苏醒，复活；重新使用；重新上演
爱恨情仇的关系还在继续。在近两年的时间里，中国领导人打击了用于建设和押注房地产的借贷，使市场陷入危机。在“零新冠”政策失败导致经济疲软的情况下，政府正在竞相拯救房地产。中国住房和城乡建设部部长倪红表示，他今年的目标是恢复市场信心;过去几个月宣布的一系列措施旨在让开发商更容易筹集资金。这些努力正在重振房地产市场。不幸的是，他们让它一如既往地容易受到繁荣和萧条的影响。
The downturn of 2022 was the most severe in recent memory. Sales of floor space plunged more sharply than ever before. Property investment fell for the first time since records began in 1999. Funds raised by developers fell by a quarter. For the past 15 years house prices in China mainly went up. They have spent the past six months sagging like a termite-weakened floor.
plunge
v. （使）突然向前倒下[跌落]；价格、比率等〕暴跌，骤降；〔船〕猛烈地颠簸
n. 突降；俯冲；〔价格、价值等的〕骤降；突然卷入；跳水；〔短时间的〕游泳
sag
v. （尤指由于承重或受压）中间下垂, 减弱, 减少
n. 下垂, 垂度, 下陷, (物价的)下跌
termite
n. 白蚁
weaken
v. 削弱, 减弱, 衰弱, 动摇
2022年的经济衰退是近年来最严重的一次。建筑面积的销售额比以往任何时候都大幅下降。房地产投资自1999年有记录以来首次下降。开发商筹集的资金减少了四分之一。在过去的15年里，中国的房价主要是上涨的。在过去的六个月里，他们像白蚁侵蚀的地板一样萎靡不振。
One reason for the pain was the government’s attempt to break the country’s addiction to debt-financed property. More than two-thirds of urban households’ wealth is tied up in real estate and the industry underpins a fifth of GDP. Developers have built up huge debts, worth about 33.5trn yuan ($5.2trn) in June 2021. In 2020 the government cut off many firms from capital markets, requiring them to reduce their debts. Dozens defaulted, spreading the pain to lenders and customers. Many new homes went unfinished, although they had been paid for. Borrowers suspended mortgage payments in protest.
addiction
n. 瘾, 嗜好, 入迷
underpin
v. 巩固, 加固（墙）基
造成这种痛苦的原因之一是政府试图打破该国对债务融资房地产的依赖。超过三分之二的城市家庭财富与房地产捆绑在一起，房地产业支撑着五分之一的GDP。开发商已经积累了巨额债务，到2021年6月价值约33.5万亿元人民币(5.2万亿美元)。2020年，政府切断了许多公司的资本市场，要求他们减少债务。数十家银行违约，将痛苦转嫁给了贷款机构和客户。许多新房子没有完工，尽管他们已经支付了费用。借款者暂停偿还抵押贷款以示抗议。
Together with President Xi Jinping’s zero-covid policy, the crackdown proved a disaster for the economy. GDP grew by just 3% last year, one of the worst performances in decades. The covid lockdowns also worsened the housing crisis, as fewer prospective buyers were able to visit empty flats and many young people, worried about an uncertain future, put off big purchases.
再加上习总统的零covid政策，这次打击对经济来说是一场灾难。去年GDP仅增长了3%，是几十年来最差的表现之一。新冠疫情的封锁也加剧了住房危机，因为能够参观空置公寓的潜在买家减少了，许多年轻人担心未来不确定，推迟了大额购买。
Now zero-covid is over and policymakers are rushing to revive animal spirits. Limits on how much some developers are allowed to borrow have been suspended. The central government has ordered banks to rescue unfinished projects. Some local authorities are putting up guarantees for developers so that they can raise more debt.
现在，零冠疫情已经结束，政策制定者正急于重振动物精神。一些开发商的贷款额度限制已被暂停。中央政府已经命令银行挽救未完成的项目。一些地方政府正在为开发商提供担保，以便他们能够筹集更多的债务。
These measures are breathing new life into the market. The number of new homes that are being completed fell by only 6% in the 12 months to December, having plunged by 18% in the year to November. It appears that government funds are being channelled to pre-paid projects that have stalled. As people who have paid for homes finally start to get their hands on the keys, prospective buyers may be reassured and tempted to bid for pads of their own.
reassure
v. 使…安心, 打消…的疑虑
bid
n. 出价；投标；努力争取
v. 出价；投标；吩咐；努力争取
pad
n. 便笺本, 护垫, 拍纸簿, 爪垫
v. 蹑手蹑脚地走，走过；虚报（账目）, 做黑账；夸大；覆盖，用软物塞填
这些措施为市场注入了新的活力。截至12月的12个月里，新房完工数量只下降了6%，而在截至11月的一年里，新房完工数量下降了18%。政府资金似乎正流向已停滞的预付项目。当已经付过款的人终于开始拿到房子的钥匙时，潜在的买家可能会感到放心，并忍不住去买自己的房子。
Sales of existing homes rose by more than 20% in the first ten days of 2023, compared with a month earlier. Some developers are no longer offering their flats at a discount. And, crucially, a property firm was able to raise dollar debts from foreign investors in mid-January, the first such instance in more than a year.
与前一个月相比，2023年的前十天，现房销量增长了20%以上。一些开发商不再以折扣价出售公寓。而且，至关重要的是，一家房地产公司在1月中旬能够从外国投资者那里筹集美元债务，这是一年多以来的第一次。
All this means that the Chinese economy should bounce back more quickly in the near term, helping to propel global growth. The danger now, however, is that China goes too far.
所有这些都意味着中国经济在短期内应该会更快地反弹，有助于推动全球经济增长。然而，现在的危险是中国走得太远了。
Technocrats tend to respond to crises with lots of liquidity. During the global financial crisis of 2007-09 much of China’s vast stimulus flowed into bricks and mortar. A property downturn in 2014 led to a bout of monetary easing that saw house prices in some places double in less than a year. Elsewhere the result was rampant overbuilding; hence the high-rise ghost cities that loom over parts of China.
brick
n. 砖, 砖块, 积木, 可靠的朋友
v. 用砖砌, 用砖镶填, 用砖围砌, 用砖铺筑
adj. 用砖砌的, 砖似的
mortar
n. 砂浆, 臼, 迫击炮, 灰泥
v. 用迫击炮攻击（或袭击）
bout
n. 一次, 一阵, 一场, （疾病的）发作
rampant
adj. 泛滥的, 猖獗的, 疯长的
loom
v. 隐约地出现; 赫然耸现; (战争、威胁等)阴森地逼近; 在织机上织
n. 隐隐呈现的形象; 大而朦胧的影子; 织机; 织造术
技术官僚倾向于用大量流动性应对危机。在2007-09年的全球金融危机期间，中国巨额刺激资金的大部分流向了房地产行业。2014年的房地产低迷导致了一轮货币宽松政策，一些地方的房价在不到一年的时间里翻了一番。其他地方的结果是过度建设;因此，中国部分地区出现了高耸的鬼城。
Local governments, meanwhile, still rely heavily on land auctions for revenue, so they have an incentive to keep sales going. They are already stepping in to support large developers by guaranteeing their commercial paper. If they have their way, the property market will come roaring back.
auction
n. 拍卖
v. 拍卖
incentive
n. 激励, 刺激, 鼓励
adj. 刺激性的
roar
v. 吼叫, 咆哮, 叫喊, 大声地说
n. 吼叫, 咆哮, （风或海的）呼啸声, （机器的）隆隆声
与此同时，地方政府的收入仍然严重依赖土地拍卖，因此它们有动力保持土地销售。他们已经开始介入，为大型开发商的商业票据提供担保。如果他们能如愿以偿，房地产市场将卷土重来。
A rekindling of such forces would be disastrous for the central government. They would lift home prices to new heights and lead to another build-up of unsustainable debts among developers. Officials would be forced once again to crack down on leverage, repeating a cycle they have already been through several times.
rekindle
v. 使重新活跃, 使复苏
重燃这股力量对中央政府来说将是灾难性的。它们将把房价推高到新的高度，并导致开发商再次积累不可持续的债务。官员们将被迫再次打击杠杆，重复他们已经经历过几次的循环。
You might think that the recovery would instead offer room for more considered thinking. But China’s leaders have long lacked the will to implement the necessary reforms. A housing tax, for example, has been floated several times. It would curb speculation and generate much-needed income for local governments. But the urban elite, which stores much of its wealth in property, would hate it. So far only a few pilot schemes have been tried out.
float
v. （使）漂浮；漂流，浮动；漂泊；安排（贷款）提出，提请考虑（想法或计划）；发行（股票）上市
n. 零钱；漂浮物；救生圈，鱼漂，游行彩车
curb
v. 抑制
n. 起控制（或限制）作用的事物, （由条石砌成的）路缘
speculation
n. 猜测, 推测, 投机买卖, 推断
pilot
n. 飞行员, 领航员, 引水员, (航空器)驾驶员
v. 试点, 引导, 试行, 驾驶(航空器)
adj. 试验性的, 试点的, 指引的, 引导的
你可能会认为，经济复苏反而会为更深思熟虑的思考提供空间。但中国领导人长期缺乏实施必要改革的意愿。例如，房产税已经被提了好几次。这将抑制投机，并为地方政府创造急需的收入。但是城市精英们将他们的大部分财富储存在房地产上，他们会讨厌它。到目前为止，只有少数试点方案得到了试验。
And so the funding model for local governments remains unchanged. Local officials will keep trying to pep up sales and prices. But who will live in all the new homes? Morgan Stanley, a bank, estimates there will be 90m new urban households in the next decade. But at its peak, China was adding about 15m homes a year. If supply is to match demand, construction will have to slow dramatically, especially as China’s population shrinks. Today’s bail-out may be reviving Chinese property, but without real reforms the sector will be doomed to boom and bust again. ■
因此，地方政府的融资模式保持不变。地方官员将继续努力提振销售和价格。但是谁会住在这些新房子里呢?摩根斯坦利银行估计，未来十年将会有9000万新的城市家庭。但在高峰时期，中国每年新增住房约1500万套。如果供给与需求相匹配，建设将不得不大幅放缓，尤其是在中国人口减少的情况下。今天的纾困可能会让中国房地产行业复苏，但如果没有真正的改革，该行业注定会再次繁荣和萧条。■
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