How the young spend their money
They are woke, broke and complicated. Businesses should take note
Jan 16th 2023

YOUNG PEOPLE have always perplexed their elders. Today’s youngsters are no different; indeed, they are baffling. They have thin wallets and expensive tastes. They prize convenience and a social conscience. They want shopping to be at once seamless and personal. They crave authenticity while being constantly immersed in an ersatz digital world. As they start spending in earnest, brands are trying to understand what these walking paradoxes want and how they shop. The answers will define the next era of consumerism.

perplexed
adj. 困惑的, 迷惑不解的
v. “perplex”的过去分词和过去式
baffling
adj. 令人费解的，无法理解的
conscience
n. 良心, 良知, 内疚, 愧疚
seamless
adj. 无（接）缝的, （两部分之间）无空隙的
crave
v. 渴望, 热望, 恳求, 请求
paradox

年轻人如何花钱
他们是觉醒的、破产的、复杂的。企业应注意这一点

年轻人总是让他们的长辈感到困惑。今天的年轻人也不例外;事实上，它们令人困惑。他们钱包瘪，品味昂贵。他们珍视便利和社会良知。他们希望购物既无缝又个性化。他们渴望真实，同时不断沉浸在一个假冒的数字世界中。随着他们开始认真消费，各大品牌正试图了解这些行走的悖论想要什么，以及他们如何购物。这些答案将定义下一个消费主义时代。

Their absolute numbers are formidable. The European Union is home to nearly 125m people between the ages of ten (the youngest will become consumers in the next few years) and 34. America has another 110m of these Gen Zs and millennials, a third of the population. The annual spending of households headed by American Gen Zs and millennials hit $2.7trn in 2021, around 30% of the total.

formidable
adj. 可怕的；令人敬畏的；难对付的
millennial
adj. 一千年的；千禧年的
n. 生于千禧世代的人（生于1980或1990年代的人）
household
n. 家庭, 一家人, 同住一所（或一套）房子的人
adj. 家庭的, 家常的, 王室的

它们的绝对数量令人生畏。欧盟有近1.25亿10岁到34岁的人口(最年轻的将在未来几年成为消费者)。美国还有1.1亿z世代和千禧一代，占总人口的三分之一。以美国z世代和千禧一代为首的家庭的年支出在2021年达到2.7万亿美元，约占总支出的30%。

A good place to start dissecting the psyche of young consumer is to consider the economy that has moulded them. At one end of the scale, today’s 30-somethings came of age in the midst of the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the ensuing recession. Their younger peers had a bit more luck, beginning their careers in years when tightening labour markets had pushed up wages. Until, that is, the covid-19 pandemic upended many of their lives.

dissect
v. 剖析，解剖（人或动植物），仔细研究，详细评论
psyche
n. 心灵, 心态, 精神, 灵魂
The need for love is a hidden corner within your psyche.
对爱的需要隐藏在你的心灵深处。

剖析年轻消费者心理的一个好起点是考虑塑造他们的经济。在天平的一端，今天的30多岁的人是在2007-09年的全球金融危机和随后的衰退中成年的。他们的年轻同事们要幸运一些，在劳动力市场紧缩、工资上涨的年代开始了他们的职业生涯。直到covid-19大流行颠覆了他们许多人的生活。

These two big shocks have fostered pessimism among the young people who experienced them. A study by McKinsey, a consultancy, published in 2022, found that a quarter of Gen Zs doubted they would be able to afford to retire. Less than half believed they would ever own a home.

foster
v. 促进, 培养, 助长; 抚育, 收养; 照料; 抱有(希望等)
n. （Foster）[人名]福斯特
adj. 代养的, 收养的
pessimism
n. 悲观, 悲观主义, 悲观情绪

这两次大冲击在经历过的年轻人中滋生了悲观情绪。咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)在2022年发表的一项研究发现，四分之一的z世代怀疑他们是否有能力退休。不到一半的人相信他们会拥有自己的房子。

Uncertainty about the future may be encouraging impulsive spending of limited resources in the present. The young were disrupted more by covid than other generations and are now enjoying the rebound. According to McKinsey, American millennials (born between 1980 and the late 1990s) spent 17% more in the year to March 2022 than they did in the year before. Despite this short-term recovery from the dark days of the pandemic, their long-term prospects are much less good. American millennials and Gen Zs have accumulated less wealth than Gen X or Boomers at the same age.

impulsive
adj. 凭冲动行事的, 易冲动的
accumulate
v. 积聚，累加，堆积
Boomer
n. （非正式）二战后生育高峰期出生的人；〈澳〉大型雄性袋鼠

对未来的不确定性可能会鼓励人们冲动地消费当前有限的资源。与其他几代人相比，年轻人受新冠疫情的影响更大，现在正在享受反弹。根据麦肯锡的数据，在截至2022年3月的一年里，美国千禧一代(出生于1980年至20世纪90年代末)的支出比前一年增加了17%。尽管从大流行的黑暗岁月中短期复苏，但长期前景远不乐观。美国千禧一代和z一代在同一年龄段积累的财富少于X一代或婴儿潮一代。

Easy access to means of spreading payments may encourage splashing out (see chart 1). According to another survey by McKinsey in October, 45% of Europeans in their teens and early 20s planned some kind of splurge in the next three months whereas 83% of Boomers, born before 1964, said “No” to such profligacy. Forrester, a market-research firm, found that most users of “buy now, pay later” apps are around 20. Megan Scott, a 20-year-old student from London, speaks for many of her peers by admitting that, when shopping, she has no restraint—until, she chuckles, the bill arrives.

splash
n. 飞溅的水；溅水声；（引人注目的）亮点
v. 使（液体）溅出、洒出；戏水；在显著位置刊登
splurge
v. 挥霍, 乱花（钱）, 糟蹋（钱）
n. 挥霍, 乱花钱, 糟蹋钱
profligacy
n. 放荡, 堕落, 荒淫, 极度的浪费
chuckle
v. 低声轻笑, 轻声地笑
n. 吃吃的笑, (母鸡的)咯咯声

容易获得的分散支付方式可能会鼓励挥霍(见表1)。根据麦肯锡10月份的另一项调查，45%的十几岁和20岁出头的欧洲人计划在未来三个月内进行某种挥霍，而1964年之前出生的婴儿潮一代中，83%的人对这种挥霍说“不”。市场研究公司Forrester发现，“先买后付”应用的大多数用户都在20岁左右。来自伦敦的20岁学生梅根·斯科特(Megan Scott)承认，在购物时，她毫无节制——直到账单来了，她咯咯地笑了。

In many ways youngsters’ shopping habits, like their lives, are defined by the “attention economy”—buying stuff online is far quicker and easier than a trip to the shops. The proliferation of social media means there are many new ways of attracting consumers’ eyeballs. Young shoppers never knew a world without smartphones. More than two-thirds of 18- to 34-year-old Americans spend four hours or more on their devices each day. A heightened expectation of convenience comes with being raised in the age of Airbnb, Amazon and Uber. Young people want their shopping to be totally hiccup-free.

proliferation
n. 增生, 〈正式〉(数量)激增, 扩散
hiccup
n. 呃逆, 嗝, 一连串的打嗝, 小问题
v. 打嗝, 打呃

在很多方面，年轻人的购物习惯，就像他们的生活一样，都是由“注意力经济”定义的——网上购物比去商店购物要快得多、容易得多。社交媒体的泛滥意味着有许多吸引消费者眼球的新方法。年轻的消费者们从未见过一个没有智能手机的世界。在18岁至34岁的美国人中，超过三分之二的人每天花在电子设备上的时间超过4小时。在Airbnb、亚马逊(Amazon)和优步(Uber)的时代，人们对便利的期望越来越高。年轻人希望购物时完全不打嗝。

The light-speed online world also appears to have lowered tolerances for long delivery times. A study by Salesforce, a business-software giant, found that Gen-Z Americans are the likeliest of all age groups to want their groceries delivered within an hour. They are more likely than the rest of the population to use their phones to pay for shopping, says Forrester.

光速般的网络世界似乎也降低了对长时间配送的容忍度。商业软件巨头Salesforce的一项研究发现，在所有年龄组中，z世代的美国人最有可能希望他们的杂货在一小时内送到。Forrester说，他们比其他人群更有可能用手机支付购物费用。

These “always-on purchasers”, as McKinsey has christened them, often shun a weekly shop for quicker fixes of everything from fashion to furniture. They like subscriptions, often favouring shared access to products rather than outright ownership. This has buoyed online-rental sites (like Rent the Runway for fashion) and streaming services. Investors may have fallen out of love with Netflix but Gen Z has not; the company remains one of the most popular brands among that age group in America.

christen
v. （施洗时）为…命名, 给…施洗, 给…取名（或命名）, 首次使用
n. 【女名】女子名
shun
v. 避开, 避免, 回避
furniture
n. （可移动的）家具
outright
adj. 完全的, 彻底的, 绝对的, 公开的
adv. 公开地, 直率地, 毫无保留地, 完全彻底

麦肯锡称他们为“永远在线的购买者”，他们经常避免每周购物，以更快地购买从时装到家具的所有东西。他们喜欢订阅，通常喜欢共享产品，而不是完全拥有产品。这推动了在线租赁网站(如时尚领域的Rent the Runway)和流媒体服务的发展。投资者可能已经对Netflix失去了兴趣，但Z世代却没有;该公司仍然是美国该年龄段人群中最受欢迎的品牌之一。

The internet has also changed how the young discover brands (see chart 2). Print, billboard or TV advertising has given way to social media. Instagram, part of Meta’s empire, and TikTok, a Chinese-owned video-sharing app, are where the young look for inspiration, particularly for goods where looks matter such as fashion, beauty and sportswear. TikTok’s user-generated videos can propel even tiny brands to speedy viral fame. Such apps are increasingly adding features that allow users to shop without ever leaving the platform. According to McKinsey, by 2021 six in ten Americans under the age of 25 had completed a purchase on a social-media site. Some are following the Chinese model of “social commerce” by mixing live-streamed entertainment with the chance shop.

sportswear
n. 运动服装, 便装
propel
v. 推进，推动；驱使；迫使
viral
adj. 病毒的, 病毒性的, 病毒引起的
adj. （通过网络在个体之间迅速）病毒式的（传播）
fame
n. 声誉，名望

互联网也改变了年轻人发现品牌的方式(见表2)。平面广告、广告牌或电视广告已经让位于社交媒体。Meta帝国旗下的Instagram和中国拥有的视频分享应用TikTok是年轻人寻找灵感的地方，尤其是时尚、美容和运动服等外貌很重要的商品。TikTok的用户生成视频甚至可以推动小品牌迅速走红。这类应用越来越多地添加功能，让用户不用离开平台就能购物。根据麦肯锡的数据，到2021年，25岁以下的美国人中，十分之六的人在社交媒体网站上完成了购物。一些公司效仿中国的“社交商务”模式，将直播娱乐与机会商店结合起来。

For the time being, though, young Western consumers prefer to make purchases outside social media, and often scour sites like Amazon for bargains. According to Cowen, an investment bank, spending on subscriptions to Prime, Amazon’s home-delivery and entertainment service, trails only phone bills, food and travel in young people’s shopping baskets.

scour
v. （彻底地）搜寻, （用粗糙的物体）擦净, 冲刷成, 冲刷出
n. 洗涤剂, 洗去, 磨擦, 疏浚
bargain
n. 物美价廉的东西; 交易, 买卖; 协定, 协议
v. 讨价还价; 讲条件, 谈判

不过，就目前而言，年轻的西方消费者更喜欢在社交媒体之外购物，他们经常在亚马逊(Amazon)等网站上淘便宜货。据投资银行Cowen称，在年轻人的购物篮中，订阅亚马逊的送货上门和娱乐服务Prime的花费仅次于电话费、食品和旅行。

Physical shops are not entirely shunned, as long as the experience feels personal and, ideally, integrates virtual and physical worlds. Nike, for example, is successfully targeting young buyers by allowing them to design their own trainers on its website, to pick up in person after attending an in-store dance class, and then encouraging them to tag the brand in a review on TikTok or Instagram.

virtual
adj. 虚拟的, 模拟的; 实际上的, 实质上的

实体商店并非完全不受欢迎，只要体验是个性化的，并且理想情况下，它将虚拟世界和物理世界结合在一起。例如，耐克(Nike)成功地瞄准了年轻买家，让他们在网站上设计自己的运动鞋，在参加完店内舞蹈课后亲自去取，然后鼓励他们在TikTok或Instagram上评论该品牌。

The new world of shopping has also allowed the young to take a more informed view of the companies that they buy from. The attention economy’s information overload has not dulled youngsters’ senses but appears to have made them hypersensitive, especially to any brand that pretends to be something it isn’t. Edelman, a public-relations firm, found that seven in ten Gen Zs across six countries fact-check claims made in adverts. Citing survey data that show some teens have shunned certain brands because of their shady ethics, Forrester has taken to calling young consumers “truth barometers”.

hypersensitive
adj. 非常敏感的, 很容易生气的, （对某些物质、药物、光等）过敏的
Cite
v. 提及，举例；引用，引述；传唤；嘉奖
shady
adj. 阴凉的，成荫的；非法的，不正当的
ethics
n. 道德标准, 道德伦理, 伦理标准, 【哲】伦理学
barometer
n. 气压计；晴雨表

购物的新世界也让年轻人对他们购买的公司有了更明智的看法。注意力经济的信息过载并没有使年轻人的感官迟钝，但似乎使他们变得极度敏感，尤其是对任何伪装成另一种东西的品牌。公关公司爱德曼(Edelman)发现，六个国家的十分之七的z世代会核查广告中的言论。根据调查数据显示，一些青少年因为某些品牌的不道德行为而对其敬而远之，Forrester称年轻消费者为“真相晴雨表”。

Brands that do not match up to the long list of requirements had better watch out. If they do not get what they want and how they want it, youngsters are happy to try something new. According to the survey by McKinsey from October 2022, nine in ten Gen Z and millennial Europeans had changed how they shopped, where they shopped or the brands they bought in the previous three months.

那些不符合这一长串要求的品牌最好小心了。如果他们没有得到他们想要的东西，也没有得到他们想要的方式，年轻人很乐意尝试新的东西。根据麦肯锡从2022年10月开始的调查，90%的Z世代和千禧一代欧洲人在过去三个月内改变了他们的购物方式、购物地点或购买的品牌。

How the young shop is clearly in flux. What they buy, too, is changing. What older generations consider discretionary, such as wellness and luxury, have become essentials. Self-care is all the rage. On the hunt for clothing that will set them apart, the young are turning to posh brands at an ever more tender age. According to Bain, a consultancy, the average Gen Z shopper makes their first luxury purchase when they are 15, compared with 19 for their 30-something counterparts. Some buy posh items as a hedge, believing that they can hold value even during tough times. Helpfully, such items can now be traded easily on second-hand sales platforms such as Vinted and Vestiaire Collective.

flux
n. 不断的变动，不停的变化；通量，流动
discretionary
adj. 自行决定的, 酌情行事的, 便宜行事的

这家年轻的商店显然在不断变化。他们购买的东西也在改变。老一辈人认为可有可无的东西，比如健康和奢侈品，已经变成了必需品。自我照顾风靡一时。为了寻找能让自己与众不同的服装，年轻人在年龄越来越小的时候就开始转向奢侈品牌。咨询公司贝恩(Bain)表示，Z世代购物者首次购买奢侈品的平均年龄为15岁，而30多岁的同龄人为19岁。一些人购买时髦的物品作为对冲，认为即使在困难时期它们也能保值。幸运的是，这些物品现在可以在Vinted和Vestiaire Collective等二手销售平台上轻松交易。

More broadly, young consumers profess to be more values-driven than previous generations. Research by Forrester shows that this attitude is even more common among teenagers and 20-somethings than among slightly older counterparts. Some of these values are centred around identity (race, gender and so on). Others stem from things the young care about, such as climate change. KPMG, an accounting firm, found that the Gen Z crowd across 16 countries worries more about climate change and natural disasters than any other generation. According to a survey by Credit Suisse, a bank, youngsters in emerging markets are more fretful still.

stem
n. 茎，干，梗；词干；血统
v. 堵住；阻止；起源于，发生
fretful
adj. 烦躁的, 苦恼的, 不舒适的

更广泛地说，年轻消费者自称比前几代人更受价值观驱动。弗雷斯特研究公司的研究显示，这种态度在青少年和20多岁的年轻人中比年龄稍大的同龄人更普遍。其中一些价值观以身份(种族、性别等)为中心。另一些则源于年轻人关心的事情，比如气候变化。毕马威会计师事务所(KPMG)发现，16个国家的Z世代比其他任何一代人都更担心气候变化和自然灾害。根据瑞士信贷银行的一项调查，新兴市场的年轻人更加焦躁不安。

Revealed preferences paint a more nuanced picture. On the one hand, Forrester has identified Patagonia, a premium outdoor-clothing brand with a record of green do-goodery, as a Gen Z favourite in the rich world. The young are the most likely of all age groups to try—and stick with—alternative proteins such as oat milk and plant-based meat alternatives. But not at any price. Credit Suisse found that on average, consumers globally will pay an average premium of 9% for more environmentally friendly grub. Young consumers in the rich world are less willing to pay premiums for these alternatives than their counterparts in emerging markets.

nuanced
adj. 微妙的，有细微差别的
oat
adj. 燕麦制的, 含燕麦的
n. 【植】燕麦, 燕麦田, 燕麦种子, 同“oatmeal”

公开的偏好描绘了一幅更微妙的画面。一方面，弗雷斯特公司已经将巴塔哥尼亚(Patagonia)这个高端户外服装品牌认定为富裕国家Z世代的最爱。在所有年龄组中，年轻人最有可能尝试并坚持食用燕麦牛奶和植物性肉类替代品等替代蛋白质。但不是不惜任何代价。瑞士信贷发现，全球消费者平均愿意为更环保的食物支付9%的溢价。与新兴市场的年轻人相比，富裕国家的年轻消费者不太愿意为这些替代品支付溢价。

Youngsters’ appetite for instant gratification is also fuelling some distinctly ungreen consumer habits. The young have virtually invented quick commerce, observes Isabelle Allen of KPMG. And that convenience is affordable because it fails to price in all its externalities. The environmental benefits of eating plants rather than meat can be quickly undone if meals are delivered in small batches by a courier on a petrol-powered motorbike. Shein, a Chinese clothes retailer that is the fastest in fast fashion, tops surveys as a Gen Z favourite in the West, despite being criticised for waste; its fashionable garments are cheap enough to throw on once and then throw away. Like everyone else the young are, then, contradictory—because, like everyone else, they are only human. ■

appetite
n. 胃口, 食欲; 欲望; 爱好
gratification
n. 满足, 满意, 快感, 令人喜悦的事物
externality
n. 外部性, 外在性, 客观性
undone
adj. 松开, 未完成, 未扣, 未系
v. “undo”的过去分词
batch
n. 批, 一批, （食物、药物等的）一批生产的量
v. 分批处理
garment
n. （一件）衣服

年轻人对即时满足的渴望也助长了一些明显不环保的消费习惯。毕马威(KPMG)的伊莎贝尔•艾伦(Isabelle Allen)认为，年轻人实际上已经发明了快速商业。这种便利是可以承受的，因为它没有将所有的外部性都计算在内。如果食物是由骑着汽油动力摩托车的快递员小批量送过来的，吃植物而不是吃肉对环境的好处很快就会消失。Shein是一家在快时尚领域走得最快的中国服装零售商，在调查中成为西方Z世代的最爱，尽管有人批评它浪费;它的时尚服装便宜到可以穿一次就扔掉。和其他人一样，年轻人也是矛盾的——因为和其他人一样，他们也是人。■

1587 words

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At 100, the mouse can still roar. But it faces a new kind of rival
Jan 19th 2023

“WHY DO WE have to grow up?” Walt Disney once wondered. As it launches its centenary celebrations on January 27th, the Walt Disney Company has sustained its appeal to the young and young-at-heart. This year Hollywood’s biggest studio will invest more in original content than any other firm. It dominates the global box office, with four of last year’s ten biggest hits, and has more streaming subscriptions than anyone else. Its intellectual property (IP) is turned into merchandise ranging from lunchboxes to lightsabers, and exploited in theme parks that are churning out healthy profits even as covid-19 lingers. More than just a business, Disney is perhaps the most successful culture factory the world has ever known.

roar
v. 吼叫, 咆哮, 叫喊, 大声地说
n. 吼叫, 咆哮, （风或海的）呼啸声, （机器的）隆隆声
centenary
n. 100 周年纪念
adj. 一百年的, 一百周年纪念的
hit
v. 打, 打击, 击中, 命中，达到
n. 打, 击中, 命中, 很受欢迎的人（或事物）
merchandise
n. 商品；货品
v. 推销；（运用广告等）销售
lunchbox
n. 饭盒
lightsaber
网络 光剑; 激光剑; 光刀;
exploit
v. 利用；开拓，开采；压榨；剥削
n. 勋绩，功绩
churn
v. 剧烈搅动, （使）猛烈翻腾, 恶心（忧虑、厌恶或恐惧的强烈感觉）
n. （制作黄油的）搅乳器, （旧时）盛奶大罐
linger
v. 停留，逗留；徘徊；花很长时间做（某事），磨蹭；苟延残喘

“为什么我们必须长大?”华特·迪士尼曾经想过。1月27日，华特迪士尼公司迎来了它的百年庆典，它对年轻人和心态年轻的人保持着吸引力。今年，这家好莱坞最大的电影公司将在原创内容上投入比其他任何公司都多。它主导着全球票房，去年十大热门影片中有四部是它的，而且它的流媒体订阅量比其他任何公司都多。其知识产权(IP)被转化为从午餐盒到光剑等各种商品，并被用于主题公园，即使在新冠肺炎仍在持续期间，这些主题公园仍在创造可观的利润。迪士尼不仅仅是一家企业，它可能是世界上最成功的文化工厂。

So the upheaval rocking the company today has relevance far beyond its empire. Uncertainty about the future profitability of Disney’s enormous entertainment portfolio has caused a rollercoaster ride in its share price. It threw out its chief executive in November and will soon replace its chairman. It also faces a rebellion from an activist investment firm that wants a board seat in what could turn into the biggest face-off since Michael Eisner, a previous CEO, was forced out in 2005. Disney’s trials are not just a boardroom drama. Similar crises are unfolding at other leading culture factories, from Warner Bros to Netflix. The reason is a technological revolution that is turning Hollywood upside down.

upheaval
n. 动荡, 剧变, 激变, 动乱
relevance
n. 适切, 现实意义, 有关系, 实质性
empire
n. 帝国; 大企业; 商业王国; 活动领域; 最高统治权
profitability
n. 盈利能力, 盈利性, 收益率, 利益性
portfolio
n. 文件夹, 职务, 有价证券组合, 公事包
rollercoaster
n. 过山车;云霄飞车; 许多急转突变;忽好忽坏;
rebellion
n. 叛乱, 反叛, 叛逆, 谋反;（对权威的）反抗，不服从
activist
n. 积极分子, 活跃分子
boardroom
n. 董事会会议室
upside down
phrase. 颠倒着,倒转着
phrase. 一团糟,混乱不堪

因此，如今撼动该公司的剧变，其意义远远超出了它的帝国范围。迪士尼庞大的娱乐投资组合未来盈利能力的不确定性导致其股价出现了过山车式的波动。去年11月，该公司解雇了首席执行官，并将很快更换董事长。该公司还面临一家激进投资公司的反对，该公司希望获得一个董事会席位，这可能成为自2005年前任首席执行官迈克尔•艾斯纳(Michael Eisner)被迫离职以来最大的对峙。迪士尼的考验不仅仅是一场董事会闹剧。从华纳兄弟(Warner Bros)到网飞(Netflix)，其他领先的文化工厂也出现了类似的危机。原因是一场技术革命正在把好莱坞搅得天翻地覆。

The continuing pre-eminence of a centenarian like Disney has confounded many predictions. Since the days of “Steamboat Willie”, Mickey Mouse’s first outing in 1928, there has been an explosion in the supply of video entertainment. Television, cable, home video and then the internet have offered increasing amounts of choice. Anyone with a phone can record video and make it accessible to billions of people, free of charge. More content is uploaded to YouTube every hour than Disney+ holds in its entire streaming catalogue.

eminence
n. 隆起, 显赫, 鼎鼎大名, 受尊敬的人
centenarian
n. 人瑞, 百岁人瑞
adj. 百岁(以上)的, 一百周年的
confounded
adj. 可恶的，讨厌的；混乱的，不知所措的，困惑的
v. （“confound”的过去分词和过去式）使吃惊，使困惑；混淆
cable
n. 缆绳，钢索；电缆；电报；有线传输系统
v. 发电报
catalogue
n. 目录，目录簿；一系列（坏事情）
v. 编入目录；登记详情

像迪士尼这样的百岁老人的持续卓越成就让许多预测都变得混乱。自1928年米老鼠第一次亮相“汽船威利”以来，视频娱乐的供应出现了爆炸式增长。电视、有线电视、家庭视频和互联网提供了越来越多的选择。任何有手机的人都可以录制视频，并让数十亿人免费观看。每小时上传到YouTube上的内容比Disney+整个流媒体目录中包含的内容还要多。

Many predicted that this surge of niche content would bring down mainstream hit-makers. They were mostly wrong. Infinite choice in entertainment has ruined the companies which produced middling content that people watched because there was nothing else on—witness the collapse in broadcast-television ratings. But those at the very top of the business have thrived. When anyone can watch anything, people flock to the best. Global streamers like Netflix and Amazon have more than 200m direct subscribers, once an unimaginable number.

niche
n. 壁龛, 舒适或称心的工作（或生活等）, （产品的）商机, 市场定位
adj. （产品）针对特定小群体的
thrive
v. 兴旺发达, 繁荣; 旺盛; 茁壮生长, 茂盛生长

许多人预测，这种小众内容的激增将压垮主流热门制作人。他们大多都错了。娱乐领域无限的选择摧毁了那些生产中等内容的公司，人们只能观看这些内容，因为没有其他东西——看看广播电视收视率的崩溃吧。但那些处于企业最高层的人却蓬勃发展。当任何人都能看任何节目时，人们就会趋之若鹜。Netflix和亚马逊(Amazon)等全球流媒体拥有超过2亿的直接订阅用户，这曾经是一个难以想象的数字。

Those who have fared best at a shrinking box office are the owners of IP that is already popular. As people visit cinemas less often and competition intensifies, studios have pumped money into films people will turn out to see even when they go only three or four times a year. America’s ten biggest films last year were all sequels or parts of a franchise; Disney’s upcoming slate includes an 80-year-old Harrison Ford returning for a fifth outing as Indiana Jones. It has not been a golden age for cinema, but for those at the top it has been a profitable one.

intensify
v. 加剧
sequel
n. 续集, 结果, 后续的事, 随之而来的事
franchise
n. 特许, （公司授予的）特许经销权, 获特许权的商业（或服务）机构；（公民）选举权
v. 授予（或出售）特许经销权（或经营权）

那些在不断缩水的票房中表现最好的是那些已经很受欢迎的IP的所有者。随着人们去电影院的次数减少和竞争加剧，电影公司将资金投入到人们即使一年只去三四次也会去看的电影中。去年美国最卖座的十部电影都是续集或系列电影的一部分;迪士尼即将推出的阵容包括80岁的哈里森·福特第五次回归饰演印第安纳·琼斯。对于电影行业来说，这并不是一个黄金时代，但对于那些高层来说，这是一个有利可图的时代。

Now technology is shaking things up again. Online distribution has enticed tech firms that make the hardware and software used for streaming. Silicon Valley is of a different scale from Tinseltown (Amazon’s growing advertising business is already three times bigger than Disney’s) and its moguls have no need to make money from streaming, which they see as an add-on to their main business. Hollywood initially wrote off the nerds. But the nerds have enough money to take creative risks. Last year Apple won the best-picture Oscar with “CODA”, a comedy-drama partly in sign language, less than three years after it entered the film business. The more fine content these new producers make and sell below cost, the greater the risk that older studios will fall from the top tier of media into the perilous middle.

entice
v. 诱使, 引诱
mogul
n. （尤指媒体、影视界的）大亨，大人物；（滑雪坡道上的）雪丘，雪墩
nerd
n. 书呆子；讨厌的人；电脑迷
perilous
adj. 危险的, 艰险的

现在，科技又一次颠覆了一切。在线分发吸引了为流媒体制作硬件和软件的科技公司。硅谷与好莱坞的规模不同(亚马逊不断增长的广告业务已经是迪士尼的三倍)，硅谷的巨头们不需要从流媒体中赚钱，他们认为这是他们主业的附加业务。好莱坞最初对这些书呆子不屑一顾。但是这些书呆子们有足够的钱来承担创造性的风险。去年，苹果公司凭借一部部分使用手语的喜剧片《CODA》获得奥斯卡最佳影片奖，而这距离苹果进入电影行业还不到三年。这些新制作人制作的优质内容越多，并以低于成本的价格出售，老牌工作室从顶级媒体跌落到危险的中层的风险就越大。

At the same time, new technology is allowing those lower down the “long tail” a better chance of reaching the profitable top. Inventions like game engines, which help with the creation of virtual sets, are lowering barriers to entry. Generative artificial intelligence, which can already make rudimentary video, may eventually lower them further. The first beneficiaries have been non-American film studios, which until recently struggled to nail first-class special effects. No longer. Two of the world’s highest-grossing films last year were Chinese—and when covid ebbs in China, expect that number to rise. China has yet to convert foreign audiences to hits like “Wolf Warrior 2” (tagline: “Anyone who offends China, wherever they are, must die”). But don’t bet that this will always be the case. China already has a globally successful social-media app in TikTok and produces video games that are international hits, including Tencent’s “Honour of Kings”, which is the world’s highest-earning mobile game.

Generative
adj. 有生产力的, 能生产的, 有生殖力的
rudimentary
adj. 基础的, 基本的, 未充分发展的, 原始的
beneficiary
n. 受益者, 受惠人, 遗产继承人
adj. (封建制度下)受封的, 采邑的, 臣服的
ebb
n. 退潮, 落潮
v. 衰退, 落, 衰弱, 减退
tagline
n. 〈美俚〉(高潮下的)结尾语

与此同时，新技术使那些处于“长尾”较低位置的企业更有机会达到盈利的顶端。游戏引擎之类的发明有助于创建虚拟场景，降低了进入门槛。生成式人工智能已经可以制作基本的视频，最终可能会进一步降低成本。第一批受益者是非美国电影制片厂，直到最近，他们还在努力打造一流的特效。不再。去年全球票房最高的电影中有两部是中国电影，当疫情在中国消退时，预计这一数字还会上升。中国尚未将外国观众转化为《战狼2》(广告语:“任何冒犯中国的人，无论在哪里，都必须死”)这样的热门影片。但不要认为这种情况会一直持续下去。中国已经有了一款在全球范围内成功的社交媒体应用抖音，并制作了一些在国际上大受欢迎的视频游戏，包括腾讯的《王者荣耀》，这是世界上收入最高的手机游戏。

Perhaps the most dramatic way technology could disrupt the culture business is by creating new categories of entertainment. Young adults in rich countries already devote more time to gaming than to broadcast television. Hollywood has been slow to catch on, but its Silicon Valley rivals are snapping up gaming IP. Microsoft’s proposed acquisition of Activision-Blizzard, whose games include “Call of Duty” and “Candy Crush”, is worth nearly ten times what Amazon paid for Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, home of James Bond and Rocky Balboa. Movies based on games are becoming as popular as games based on movies. A series based on “The Last of Us”, a post-apocalyptic game, seems to be a critical success. Sonic the Hedgehog was among last year’s biggest films and Mario is likely to be among this year’s. Nintendo is opening a new Mario theme park next month—in Hollywood, no less.

category
n. 种类，类别
acquisition
n. (技能、习惯或品质的)习得, 培养; (一家公司对另一家公司的) 收购; 资产获得, 获得物
apocalyptic
adj. 描述（历史）大动乱的, 预示（未来）大灾变的, 似末世的, 像世界末日的
Sonic
adj. 声音的, 声速的
Hedgehog
n. 刺猬

也许科技颠覆文化产业的最引人注目的方式是创造新的娱乐类别。富裕国家的年轻人花在玩游戏上的时间已经超过了看电视的时间。好莱坞迟迟没有跟上，但它的硅谷竞争对手正在抢购游戏IP。微软提议收购动视暴雪，其游戏包括“使命召唤”和“糖果粉碎传奇”，其价值几乎是亚马逊收购米高梅的十倍，米高梅是詹姆斯·邦德和洛奇·巴尔博亚的家。根据游戏改编的电影和根据电影改编的游戏一样受欢迎。一个基于“最后生还者”的系列游戏，一个后启示录游戏，似乎取得了巨大的成功。《刺猬索尼克》是去年最卖座的电影之一，《马里奥》很可能是今年最卖座的电影之一。任天堂下个月将在好莱坞开设一个新的马里奥主题公园。

The mouse and the long tail
The great creative factories of Hollywood will have to adapt if they want to survive. Another successful era is not beyond their reach. Disney’s century has been one of endless reinvention, in business terms as well as artistic ones, as the company has moved its output from projectors to cables to cassettes and now bytes. It will probably continue to innovate. Still, there are already signs that much of the coming century’s popular culture will be dreamt up in places other than Hollywood. For audiences tiring of sequels, that may be a welcome twist. ■

invention
n. 发明, 创造, 虚构, 编造; 创造力
cassette
n. 暗盒, 磁带盒, 盒式磁带, 卡式磁带
v. 用盒式磁带[胶卷或录像磁带]录制
innovate
v. 创新, 引入（新事物、思想或方法）, 改革
dreamt
n. 梦, 梦想, 理想, 愿望
v. 梦想, 做梦, 梦见, 想象

好莱坞伟大的创意工厂如果想生存下去，就必须适应。另一个成功的时代并非遥不可及。迪士尼的世纪是一个不断革新的世纪，在商业和艺术方面都是如此，该公司从投影仪到有线电视，再到磁带，现在又到字节。它可能会继续创新。尽管如此，已经有迹象表明，下个世纪的流行文化将在好莱坞以外的地方诞生。对于厌倦了续集的观众来说，这可能是一个受欢迎的转折。■

1061 words

Proving a photo has been faked is one thing. Proving it hasn’t is quite another
But, for the reporting of war crimes, it matters
Jan 9th 2023

证明照片是伪造的是一回事。 证明它没有完全是另一回事
但是，对于报告战争罪来说，这很重要

THAT TRUTH is the first casualty of war is an old aphorism. One recent instance is the proliferation of images and videos of things that did not happen, in wars such as those currently going on in Ukraine and Syria. Some of these are outright fakes. Others are manipulated versions of honestly recorded material. Last year a doctored video appeared of Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, apparently telling Ukrainian soldiers to surrender.

aphorism
n. 格言，警句
proliferation
n. 增生, 〈正式〉(数量)激增, 扩散
outright
adj. 完全的, 彻底的, 绝对的, 公开的
adv. 公开地, 直率地, 毫无保留地, 完全彻底

真理是战争的第一个伤亡者是一句古老的格言。 最近的一个例子是未发生的事情的图像和视频的扩散，比如目前在乌克兰和叙利亚发生的战争。 其中一些是彻头彻尾的假货。 其他的是对真实记录材料的操纵版本。 去年，乌克兰总统沃洛德米尔·泽伦斯基 (Volodymyr Zelensky) 出现了一段经过篡改的视频，显然是在告诉乌克兰士兵投降。

The proliferation of such fakes has, though, led to a second, more subtle approach to lying with images. This is to use their ubiquity to cast doubt on the veracity of inconvenient pictures that are real.

ubiquity
n. 遍在(性)
veracity
n. 真实性, 诚实

然而，此类假货的泛滥导致了第二种更微妙的利用图像撒谎的方法。 这是为了利用它们的普遍性来怀疑真实的不便图片的真实性。

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, for example, the Associated Press released a video of doctors failing to revive a young girl who had been hit in the shelling of Mariupol. The footage soon appeared on Russian television with the word “fake” stamped on it. Since it is hard to prove a negative (ie, that material has not been doctored), such evidence may thus be challenged, possibly even in court, and allegations of crimes based on that evidence may, as a result, not stick.

Associated
adj. 有关联的, 相关的, 有联系的, （用于联合企业的名称）联合的
v. “associate”的过去式和过去分词
revive
v. （使）苏醒，复活；重新使用；重新上演
footage
n. （影片中的）连续镜头;以尺计算长度, 尺数
allegation
n. 断言, 宣称; 主张; 辩解; 指控
stick
v. 刺, 戳; 插入, 刺入; 粘贴; 钉住
n. 枝条, 枯枝; 棍, 棒; 手杖; 条状物; 棍状物

例如，去年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后不久，美联社发布了一段视频，视频显示医生未能使一名在马里乌波尔炮击中被击中的年轻女孩复活。 这段视频很快出现在俄罗斯电视台上，上面印有“假”字样。 由于很难证明是否定的（即材料未被篡改），因此此类证据可能会受到质疑，甚至可能在法庭上受到质疑，因此基于该证据的犯罪指控可能不会站得住脚。

Ways to establish the authenticity of digital imagery would therefore be valuable. And one is now available. “Glass-to-glass” warning systems create special software “ecosystems” within which pictures and video can be taken, stored and transmitted in a way that alerts viewers to alterations, no matter when and where those changes are introduced in an image’s journey from lens to screen.

authenticity
n. 真实性, 确实性
transmit
v. 传输，传送；传达，传输（思想、感情）；传导（声、电等）；发送信号
alteration
n. 改变，变更

因此，确定数字图像真实性的方法是很有价值的。现在已经有一个了。“玻璃对玻璃”预警系统创建了特殊的软件“生态系统”，在该系统中，可以拍摄、存储和传输图片和视频，无论这些变化是在何时何地在图像从镜头到屏幕的过程中发生的，都可以向观看者发出警告。

A plate of hash
One such system has been developed by eyeWitness to Atrocities, a charity based in London. The app at its core does two things. First, when a photo or video is taken by a phone fitted with that app, it records the time and location of the event, as reported by hard-to-deny electronic witnesses such as GPS satellites and nearby mobile-phone towers and Wi-Fi networks. This is known as the controlled capture of metadata, and is more secure than collecting such metadata from the phone itself, because a phone’s time and location settings can be changed.

hash
v. 切细, 弄糟, 反复推敲
n. （回锅）肉丁土豆, （尤指电话上的）井号（#）
Atrocity
n. （尤指战争中的）残暴行为
charity
n. 慈善机构；仁慈，宽厚
metadata
n. 元数据

一盘哈希饼
总部位于伦敦的慈善机构“暴行目击者”(eyeWitness to Atrocities)开发了一种这样的系统。这款应用的核心功能是两件事。首先，当装有该应用程序的手机拍摄照片或视频时，它会记录下事件发生的时间和地点，就像GPS卫星、附近的移动电话塔和Wi-Fi网络等难以否认的电子目击者所报告的那样。这就是所谓的元数据可控捕获，比从手机本身收集元数据更安全，因为手机的时间和位置设置是可以更改的。

Second, the app reads the image’s entire digital sequence (the zeros and ones which represent it) and uses a standard mathematical formula to calculate an alphanumeric value, known as a hash, unique to that picture. All this done, it then puts the metadata and the hash into a file called a proof bundle that is separate from the image and sends an encrypted copy of the image and its proof bundle to a special server.

alphanumeric
adj. 含有字母和数字的, 字母与数字并用的
bundle
n. 捆，束
v. 捆,匆匆送走,附赠

其次，该应用程序读取图像的整个数字序列(表示图像的0和1)，并使用标准数学公式计算出图像独有的字母数字值，即哈希值。完成所有这些后，它将元数据和散列放入一个称为证明包的文件中，该文件与图像分离，并将图像及其证明包的加密副本发送到一个特殊的服务器。

Wendy Betts, director of eyeWitness to Atrocities, describes this server as a digital evidence locker. If an image’s authenticity needs to be verified, it suffices to rescan its digital sequence, recalculate its hash, and then ask the repository whether or not it contains an identical hash. If even a single pixel of the image has been altered, the recalculated hash will not match the original. If it does match, then the image has not been retouched.

rescan
v. 重新扫描

“暴行目击者”的负责人温迪·贝茨(Wendy Betts)将这个服务器描述为一个数字证据库。如果需要验证图像的真实性，只需重新扫描其数字序列，重新计算其哈希，然后询问存储库是否包含相同的哈希。即使图像的单个像素被改变，重新计算的哈希也将与原始图像不匹配。如果匹配，则图像未被修饰。

As an additional service, roughly 80 lawyers, each working for the charity without pay for a few hours a week, review the incoming images. They package those which seem to record abuses into dossiers that are then sent to prosecuting authorities including Europol (a law-enforcement agency of the European Union), the International Criminal Court and Ukraine’s Office of the Prosecutor-General.

abuse
n. 虐待；滥用； 辱骂，谩骂； 侮辱； 恶习，陋习
vt. 虐待；滥用，妄用；辱骂，谩骂；伤害；摧残
dossier
n. 档案, 材料汇编, 卷宗
prosecute
v. 起诉, 控告, 检举, 担任控方律师

作为一项额外的服务，大约80名律师每周无偿为该慈善机构工作几个小时，检查传入的图像。他们将那些似乎记录了虐待行为的文件打包成卷宗，然后送到包括欧洲刑警组织(欧盟的执法机构)、国际刑事法院和乌克兰总检察长办公室在内的检察机关。

Andriy Kostin, the prosecutor-general himself, is a fan of the eyeWitness system—and not just because it provides the security of authenticity that courts require. He also likes the fact that it helps overcome a second obstacle to his efforts: witnesses’ fear of being found out.

prosecutor
n. 检察官, 公诉人, 原告律师, 控方律师
obstacle
n. 障碍，绊脚石

总检察长Andriy Kostin本人就是目击者系统的拥趸，这不仅仅是因为它提供了法庭所要求的真实性保障。他还喜欢这样一个事实:这有助于克服他努力的第二个障碍:证人害怕被发现。

Making connections
In areas of Ukraine that are occupied by Russia, this is a serious risk. Were soldiers manning a checkpoint, for example, to discover on someone’s phone video evidence collected by that person of war crimes, the consequences could be severe. To make this less likely to happen, the app’s icon does not reveal its purpose. Moreover, if it is then tapped by a probing official and an incorrect passcode entered, that opens the phone’s normal photo gallery. Maryna Slobodianiuk, lead investigator at Truth Hounds, a human-rights group in Kyiv, says of the evidence of attacks she has collected using eyeWitness: “Even if I will be captured…no one will reach it.”

manning
n. 男人, 人类, 男子汉, 伙计
v. 在…岗位上工作, 操纵（机器等）, 配备（人员）
int. （表示惊奇、气愤等）嘿
checkpoint
n. （边防）检查站, 边防关卡
gallery
n. 画廊, 美术馆, 走廊, 楼座

建立联系
在乌克兰被俄罗斯占领的地区，这是一个严重的风险。例如，如果驻守检查站的士兵在某人的手机上发现那个人收集的战争罪行的视频证据，后果可能是严重的。为了降低这种情况发生的可能性，应用程序的图标没有显示它的用途。此外，如果随后被负责调查的官员窃听，并输入了错误的密码，就会打开手机的正常相册。基辅人权组织“真相猎犬”(Truth Hounds)的首席调查员Maryna Slobodianiuk谈到她通过目击者收集到的袭击证据时说:“即使我被抓住了……也没人能拿到。”

The first version of eyeWitness’s system, available gratis, was released in 2015, so most of the bugs have been dealt with. Uptake in Ukraine has soared over the past year. Ms Betts says that of the 40,000 submissions received in 2022 which her team considers relevant for investigations, more than 27,000 were sent from Ukraine.

gratis
adj. 免费的
adv. 免费地, 无偿地
Uptake
n. 吸收, （对现有东西的）使用, 吸收速度
soar
v. 翱翔, 高飞, 猛增, 高耸
n. 翱翔, 上升高度, 高飞范围
submission
n. 提交, 屈服, 投降, 意见

目击者系统的第一个版本是在2015年发布的，是免费的，所以大多数bug都已经解决了。在过去的一年中，乌克兰的吸收率飙升。贝茨女士表示，在2022年收到的4万份她的团队认为与调查相关的材料中，有2.7万多份来自乌克兰。

Police officers and journalists are particularly eager users. So are analysts at the Ukrainian Healthcare Centre, a think-tank in Kyiv that employs the app to gather evidence of attacks on medical facilities.

警察和记者尤其热衷于使用。基辅的一家智库乌克兰医疗中心(Ukrainian Healthcare Centre)的分析师也是如此，他们使用这款应用程序来收集医疗设施遭到袭击的证据。

Nor is eyeWitness the only provider of glass-to-glass services. The Guardian Project, in Valhalla, New York, has released a smartphone app called ProofMode. Like eyeWitness, ProofMode combines controlled-capture metadata and the image’s hash into a proof bundle. Instead of operating the receiving server itself, though, ProofMode uses repositories run by other firms, such as Google, which log them in the fashion of a notary. Viewers of an image taken with ProofMode can upload it to a Guardian Project website that recalculates its hash and checks the repositories for a match. If it fails to find one, the image is declared altered.

repository
n. 仓库, 贮藏室, 存放处, 学识渊博的人
notary
n. 公证人，公证员

目击者也不是唯一一家提供玻璃对玻璃服务的公司。位于纽约瓦尔哈拉的Guardian Project发布了一款名为ProofMode的智能手机应用程序。与目击者一样，ProofMode将受控捕获元数据和图像哈希组合到一个证明包中。不过，与操作接收服务器本身不同，ProofMode使用由其他公司(如谷歌)运行的存储库，这些存储库以公证的方式记录它们。使用ProofMode拍摄的图像的观看者可以将其上传到Guardian Project网站，该网站会重新计算其哈希值，并检查存储库是否匹配。如果找不到，则声明图像已更改。

Soon, the Guardian Project will add a new feature, Synchrony. This will link an image’s location and time-of-capture to OpenStreetMap, an online cartography of the world, and also to a detailed geographical record of the world’s weather over the past few years (which one, has yet to be decided). That will make it easy to check for inconsistencies between the place and time someone claims a picture was taken, and the local landscape and the weather conditions on that day. The idea, says Nathan Freitas, the Guardian Project’s founder, is to “sync images to the real world as it was”. He hopes to link to other databases, as well—including those that record when and where street protests have happened.

Synchrony
n. 【物】同步, 同步性
cartography
n. 制图学, 地图绘制
inconsistency
n. “inconsistence”的变体，不一致，不调和，矛盾

很快，守护者计划将添加一个新功能，同步。这将把图像的位置和拍摄时间与OpenStreetMap(一种世界在线地图)，以及过去几年世界天气的详细地理记录(具体是哪一种，还有待决定)联系起来。这样就可以很容易地检查某人声称拍摄照片的地点和时间，以及当天当地的景观和天气状况之间的不一致。卫报项目的创始人内森·弗雷塔斯(Nathan Freitas)说，这个想法是“将图像与现实世界同步”。他希望也能连接到其他数据库，包括那些记录街头抗议发生时间和地点的数据库。

A third operator, Truepic, of La Jolla, California, is taking a more commercial approach. Charities pay nothing to use its software, but companies that employ it to keep an eye on things like supply chains, progress at construction sites, compliance with loan terms, and the whereabouts and condition of expensive kit, must stump up.

charity
n. 慈善机构；仁慈，宽厚
kit
n. 配套元件，成套工具，成套设备
stump
n. （树被砍倒后留下的）树桩，树墩；残肢；残余部分；残段；残根
v. 把（某人）难住，难倒；迈着沉重的步子走；跺着脚走；（在…）作巡回政治演说

第三家运营商，位于加州拉霍亚的Truepic正在采取更加商业化的方式。慈善机构无需支付任何费用就可以使用它的软件，但使用它来监视供应链、建筑工地进度、贷款条款的遵守情况以及昂贵工具的下落和状况等事务的公司必须支付费用。

Truepic provides two services. One scans smartphones for malware designed to facilitate the falsification of metadata. The other spots so-called rebroadcasting attacks, in which a doctored image is photographed to create a new picture, which thereby lacks traces of tampering in its code. Mounir Ibrahim, once a member of America’s diplomatic corps (he served, inter alia, in Damascus, a hotbed of photographic deception), and now head of public affairs at Truepic, is cagey about how this is done. But the trick, he notes, is to look for clues that all of an image’s pixels have recorded a uniformly flat surface.

malware
n. 恶意软件（指电脑病毒等）
facilitate
v. 促进；助长；使便利，使容易；帮助
falsification
n. 弄虚作假, 伪造, 窜改, 歪曲
rebroadcast
v. 【无线】再播送, 转播
diplomatic
adj. 外交的；老练的，圆通的，委婉的
corps
n. 兵团, （陆军）特种部队, （从事某工作或活动的）一群人
deception
n. 欺骗, 骗局, 骗术, 诡计
cagey
adj. 守口如瓶的, 讳莫如深的

Truepic提供两种服务。一种是扫描智能手机，寻找旨在伪造元数据的恶意软件。另一种是所谓的重播攻击，即拍摄经过篡改的图像以创建新图像，因此其代码中没有篡改的痕迹。穆尼尔•易卜拉欣曾是美国外交使团的一员(他曾在大马士革工作，那里是照片欺骗的温床)，现在是Truepic的公共事务主管，他对这是如何做到的讳莫如深。但他指出，诀窍在于寻找图像的所有像素都记录了一个均匀的平面的线索。

In 2021 Truepic joined forces with Adobe, ARM, the BBC, Intel and Microsoft to form the Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA). This is trying to create a set of image-authentication technological standards for makers of hardware and software. The aim is to eliminate the need to fuss with special apps. Instead, the coalition wants metadata capture, hashing and the transmission of data to repositories to take place behind the scenes and without royalties.

Coalition
n. 联盟, 联合, 结合, （两党或多党）联合政府
fuss
n. （为小事）大惊小怪，小题大做；瞎忙；（具体的）反对，抗议，纷争；繁琐的手续；麻烦，困难
v. 过分关心（枝节小事）；（为小事）烦恼；打扰，烦扰
royalty
n. 王室成员；版税

2021年，Truepic与Adobe、ARM、BBC、英特尔和微软联合成立了内容出处和真实性联盟(C2PA)。这是试图为硬件和软件制造商创建一套图像认证技术标准。其目的是消除对特殊应用程序的麻烦。相反，该联盟希望元数据的捕获、散列和数据到存储库的传输在幕后进行，并且不需要版税。

If C2PA’s standards were widely adopted, even web browsers would be able to check an online repository of hashes and put a warning on images with no match. Eventually, hashes might be distributed automatically across blockchain ledgers. The Starling Lab, based at Stanford University, is running trials of such a system.

blockchain
n. 区块链
ledger
n. 收支总账, 分类账簿, 分户账簿

如果C2PA的标准被广泛采用，即使是网络浏览器也能检查在线哈希库，并对不匹配的图像发出警告。最终，哈希值可能会自动分布到区块链分类账上。位于斯坦福大学的斯特林实验室正在对这种系统进行试验。

Hurdles, however, remain. Jonathan Dotan, the Starling Lab’s founding director, points to one in particular. The technology could potentially allow authoritarian regimes to identify devices, and thus people, who have taken damning pictures. Researchers, he says, must first find a way to make such tracing impossible. Transparency is all very well, but even the good guys recognise that, sometimes, too much of it can be too much of a good thing. ■

Hurdle
n. 跨栏, 障碍, 难关, 跨栏赛
v. （奔跑中）跳越（某物）, 参加跨栏赛
particular
adj. 专指的，特定的；独特的，特别的；讲究的，挑剔的
n. 详细资料；细节，详情
damn
adv. （表示厌烦）该死, 极
adj. 该死的, 完全的
v. （表示愤怒）该死, 令（某人）下地狱, 强烈指责, 谴责
n. 诅咒, 些微
int. 他妈的
Transparency
n. 透明（度）, 透明（性）；幻灯片, 透明正片；清晰，易懂；一目了然, 显而易见

然而，障碍依然存在。星城实验室的创始主任乔纳森·多坦(Jonathan Dotan)特别指出了一个例子。这项技术可能会让专制政权识别出那些拍摄了该死照片的设备，从而识别出那些人。他说，研究人员必须首先找到一种方法，使这种追踪不可能。透明度固然很好，但即使是好人也认识到，有时，透明度过高可能会让好事变得过份。■

1407 words

Digital technology is redrawing the boundaries of the firm
Companies are reorganising themselves in the wake of digital upheaval
Jan 8th 2023

TECHNOLOGY AND business are inextricably linked. Entrepreneurs harness technological advances and, with skill and luck, turn them into profitable products. Technology, in turn, changes how firms operate. Electricity enabled the creation of larger, more efficient factories, since these no longer needed to depend on a central source of steam power; email has done away with most letters. But new technologies also affect business in a subtler, more profound way. They alter not just how companies do things but also what they do—and, critically, what they don’t do.

fuzzy
adj. 模糊的；失真的；有绒毛的
redraw
v. 重新描绘
upheaval
n. 动荡, 剧变, 激变, 动乱

inextricably
adv. 不可分开地, 密不可分地
harness
v. 控制利用; 给（马等）上挽具, 用挽具把…套到…上；利用，驾驭
n. 马具, 挽具, （用于人，起固定或保护作用的）背带

技术和商业是密不可分的。企业家利用技术进步，并凭借技能和运气，将其转化为有利可图的产品。反过来，技术也改变了公司的运作方式。电力使规模更大、效率更高的工厂得以诞生，因为这些工厂不再需要依赖集中的蒸汽动力;电子邮件使大多数信件消失了。但新技术也以一种更微妙、更深刻的方式影响着商业。它们不仅改变了公司做事的方式，还改变了公司做事的内容——更重要的是，还改变了公司不做事的内容。

The Industrial Revolution ended the “putting-out system”, in which companies obtained raw materials but outsourced manufacturing to self-employed craftsmen who worked at home and were paid by output. Factories strengthened the tie between workers, now employed directly and paid by the hour, and workplace. The telegraph, telephone and, in the last century, containerised shipping and better information technology (IT), have allowed multinational companies to subcontract ever more tasks to ever more places. China became the world’s factory; India became its back office. Nearly three years after the pandemic began, it is clear that technology is once again profoundly redrawing the boundaries of the firm.

telegraph
n. 电报（通信方式）
v. 打电报, 电告, 用电报发送（电文）, （无意中）流露（思想）
subcontract
v. 分包, 转包
n. 分包合同, 转包合同

工业革命终结了“外包体系”，在这种体系下，企业获得原材料，但将制造外包给在家工作的个体工匠，并根据产出获得报酬。工厂加强了工人与工作场所之间的联系，工人现在被直接雇佣，按小时计酬。电报、电话，以及上个世纪的集装箱运输和更好的信息技术(IT)，使得跨国公司能够将更多的任务分包给更多的地方。中国成为了世界工厂;印度成了它的后台。在大流行开始近三年后，很明显，技术再次深刻地重新划定了企业的边界。

In the rich world, fast broadband and apps like Zoom or Microsoft Teams are allowing a third of working days to be done remotely. Jobs are trickling out from big-city corporate headquarters to smaller towns and the boondocks. And the line between collaborating with a colleague, a freelance worker or another firm is blurring.

broadband
n. 宽带
adj. 宽带的, 宽频的
headquarter
v. 设总部；在…设总部；把…放在总部中
n. 总部；指挥部；司令部
boondocks
n. 偏僻地区;
collaborate
v. 合作，协作；勾结；通敌
freelance
adj. 特约的, 自由职业（者）的
v. 做特约工作, 从事自由职业
n. 自由作家，自由记者
blurring
v. （blur的现在分词）（使）变得模糊不清, （使）视线模糊, （使）看不清, （使）难以区分
adj. 模糊的

在富裕国家，高速宽带和Zoom或微软Teams等应用程序使得三分之一的工作日可以远程完成。工作机会正从大城市的公司总部慢慢转移到小城镇和边远地区。与同事、自由职业者或另一家公司合作之间的界限正在模糊。

Companies are drawing on common pools of resources, from cloud computing to human capital. By one estimate, skilled freelance workers in America earned $247bn in 2021, up from about $135bn in 2018. The biggest firms in America and Europe are outsourcing more white-collar work. Exports of commercial services from six large emerging markets have grown by 16.5% a year since the pandemic began, up from 6.5% before it (see chart 1). On January 9th Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), an Indian IT-outsourcing giant, reported another bump in profits.

企业正在利用从云计算到人力资本等公共资源池。据估计，2021年美国熟练自由职业者的收入为2470亿美元，高于2018年的约1350亿美元。美国和欧洲的大公司正在外包更多的白领工作。自疫情爆发以来，六个大型新兴市场的商业服务出口每年增长16.5%，高于疫情爆发前的6.5%(见表1)。1月9日，印度it外包巨头塔塔咨询服务公司(TCS)报告利润再次大幅增长。

A useful lens for understanding these changes was offered by Ronald Coase in his paper from 1937 entitled “The nature of the firm”. Stay small and you forgo the efficiencies of scale. Grow too big and an enterprise gets unwieldy—think of Soviet-style command-and-control economies. Most commerce happens in between those extremes. Coase, whose insights earned him a Nobel prize in economics, argued that firms’ boundaries—what to do and what not to do yourself—are determined by how transaction and information costs differ within firms and between them. Some things are done most efficiently in-house. The market takes care of the rest.

forgo
v. 弃绝（想做的事或想得之物）
transaction
n. 交易，生意；处理，办理

罗纳德·科斯(Ronald Coase)在他1937年的论文《企业的性质》(The nature of The firm)中为理解这些变化提供了一个有用的视角。保持小规模，你就放弃了规模效益。规模太大，企业就会变得笨重——想想苏联式的命令控制经济吧。大多数商业活动都在这两个极端之间进行。科斯的真知灼见为他赢得了诺贝尔经济学奖，他认为企业的界限——自己该做什么，不该做什么——是由企业内部和企业之间的交易和信息成本的差异决定的。有些事情在内部完成效率最高。剩下的由市场来处理。

For example, between the 1980s and the 2010s, globalisation and the IT boom boosted economies of scale, which encouraged market concentration. But they also increased competitive pressures and cut the cost of communication and collaboration between firms. The net result was for many companies to shrink their scopes. In research published last year Lorenz Ekerdt and Kai-Jie Wu of the University of Rochester found that the average number of sectors in which American manufacturers were active fell by half between 1977 and 2017. By the 2000s many sprawling industrial conglomerates like Germany’s Degussa, which had a hand in everything from metals to medicine, or British Aerospace, which was poking at cars, had untangled themselves and picked the knitting to stick to (chemicals and aircraft, respectively).

collaboration
n. 合作, 协作, 合作成果（或作品）, 通敌
scope
n. (活动、影响等的)范围; 眼界; 理解范围; 余地, 机会; 观察仪器(显微镜、望远镜等)
v. 仔细看; 彻底检查; 查清
sprawling
adj. 蔓延的, 杂乱无序拓展的
v. “sprawl”的现在分词
conglomerate
n. 砾岩, 企业集团, 联合大公司, 合成物
adj. 【地】砾岩(性)的, 成球(状)的, 结成团块的, 混杂会聚在一处的
v. 聚集；聚结

例如，在上世纪80年代至2010年代之间，全球化和IT繁荣推动了规模经济，从而鼓励了市场集中。但它们也增加了竞争压力，降低了公司之间沟通和合作的成本。最终结果是许多公司缩小了业务范围。在去年发表的一项研究中，罗切斯特大学(University of Rochester)的洛伦兹·埃克特(Lorenz Ekerdt)和吴凯杰(Kai-Jie Wu)发现，从1977年到2017年，美国制造商活跃的行业平均数量下降了一半。到21世纪初，许多庞大的工业集团，如德国德古赛(Degussa)，涉足从金属到医药的所有领域，或英国航空航天(British Aerospace)，涉足汽车行业，已经摆脱了困境，选择了继续从事的业务(分别是化工和飞机)。

Today Coasean forces are ushering in a new type of corporate organisation. It resembles a 21st-century putting-out system—not for artisan craftsmen but for the white-collar professionals who epitomise modern Western economies. Micha Kaufman, boss of Fiverr, an Israeli marketplace which matches freelances with business around the world, observes that firms are getting better at measuring workers’ performance based on their actual output rather than time spent producing it. This is true both of employees and subcontractors. The result is a reorganisation of businesses both internally, and in relation to other companies in the economy.

usher
n. 引座员, 门房, 男傧相
v. 把…引往, 引导, 引领
resemble
v. 与……相似，类似
artisan
n. 工匠, 手艺人
epitomise
v. 成为…的典范（或典型）
subcontractor
n. 分包商, 分包人

今天，Coasean的力量正在引领一种新型的公司组织。它就像一个21世纪的失业系统——不是为手艺人，而是为代表现代西方经济的白领专业人士。Fiverr是一家为自由职业者和世界各地的企业配对的以色列市场，其老板Micha Kaufman注意到，公司越来越善于根据员工的实际产出来衡量他们的表现，而不是花在生产上的时间。雇员和分包商都是如此。其结果是企业的内部重组，以及与经济中其他公司的关系。

Start on the inside. Using data from America’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, The Economist has examined jobs in three sectors particularly compatible with remote work: technology, finance and professional services. We find that such jobs have become far more distributed across America since the pandemic. Big metropolitan areas have lost out to smaller cities and even the countryside. Since the fourth quarter of 2019, the number of jobs in the three sectors has grown by six percentage points more in rural areas than in San Francisco and New York.

compatible
adj. 可共用的；兼容的；可共存的；关系好的，和睦相处的
metropolitan
adj. 大城市的；大都会的

从里面开始。根据美国就业和工资季度普查的数据，《经济学人》调查了三个特别适合远程工作的行业:科技、金融和专业服务。我们发现，自大流行以来，这类工作在美国各地的分布更加广泛。大城市已经输给了小城市，甚至农村。自2019年第四季度以来，这三个行业的就业岗位在农村地区的增长比旧金山和纽约多了6个百分点。

Firms are also distributing more work across borders. Oswald Yeo, who runs Glints, a recruiting startup in Singapore, says his firm hires employees in batches by country. That helps the new recruits to form in-person bonds with compatriots, while expanding Glints’s talent pool, Mr Yeo explains. There is a premium for places with a small time difference. In Glints’s case, that is countries like Indonesia.

recruit
v. 吸收（新成员）, 征募（新兵）, 动员…（提供帮助）, （通过招募）组成
n. 新兵, 新警员, 新成员
batch
n. 批, 一批, （食物、药物等的）一批生产的量
v. 分批处理
compatriot
n. 同胞, 同国人
adj. 同国的
premium
n. 保险费, 额外费用, 奖金, 津贴
adj. 优质的, 昂贵的, 价格更高的

公司也在跨境分配更多的工作。新加坡招聘初创公司Glints的经营者Oswald Yeo说，他的公司按国家分批招聘员工。杨荣文解释说，这有助于新员工与同胞建立面对面的联系，同时扩大了Glints的人才库。时差小的地方会有额外的费用。在Glints的案例中，就是印度尼西亚这样的国家。

For American firms, it is often Canada. Microsoft, which opened its first Canadian office in 1985, created a big new one in Toronto in 2022. Google is tripling its Canadian workforce to 5,000. A study last year by CBRE, a property firm, of the 50 cities in America and Canada with the most tech workers found that four of the top ten were Canadian. Together, the four added 180,000 tech jobs between 2016 and 2021, an increase of 39%, while the top four American cities gained just 86,000 jobs, or 8%. Lower living costs help; the Canadian quartet were among the 16 cheapest cities in the group in terms of housing.

对于美国公司来说，通常是加拿大。微软于1985年在加拿大开设了第一个办事处，并于2022年在多伦多开设了一个新的大办事处。谷歌在加拿大的员工人数增加了两倍，达到5000人。房地产公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)去年对美国和加拿大50个科技工作者最多的城市进行了一项研究，发现排名前十的城市中有四个是加拿大城市。在2016年至2021年期间，这四个城市共增加了18万个科技工作岗位，增幅为39%，而美国前四大城市只增加了8.6万个工作岗位，增幅为8%。较低的生活成本有所帮助;加拿大的这四个城市是该集团中房价最低的16个城市之一。

Barriers to immigration are another factor forcing firms to look abroad, says Prithwiraj Choudhury of Harvard Business School. Mr Choudhury has documented a growing class of firms that help employers forge stable relationships with foreign employees without hiring them directly. One example is MobSquad, a firm that enlists skilled workers unable to obtain visas to America and employs them in Canada instead. Its American clients include Betterment, an investment firm, and Guardant Health, a biotechnology company.

forge
v. （尤指努力地）制造，生产；伪造，假冒；突然向前猛冲
n. 锻造车间；锻造工厂
enlist
v. 争取, 征募, （使）入伍, 从军

哈佛商学院的Prithwiraj Choudhury说，移民壁垒是迫使公司将目光投向海外的另一个因素。乔杜里记录了越来越多的公司帮助雇主与外国雇员建立稳定的关系，而不是直接雇佣他们。MobSquad就是一个例子，这家公司招募无法获得美国签证的技术工人，并将他们雇佣到加拿大。它的美国客户包括投资公司Betterment和生物技术公司Guardant Health。

MobSquad’s recruits sit somewhere between outsourced temps and full-time employees. This sort of arrangement points to the bigger Coasean shift—to how firms demarcate which tasks they perform on their own account and which they subcontract.

MobSquad的新员工介于外包的临时工和全职员工之间。这种安排指向了更大的科斯转移——公司如何划分哪些任务是自己完成的，哪些是分包的。

A survey of nearly 500 American firms by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta last year found that 18% were using more independent contractors than in previous years; 2% said they used fewer. On top of that, 13% relied more on leased workers, compared with 1% who reduced this reliance. MBO Partners, a workforce-management firm, estimates that the number of American workers engaged in independent work for at least 15 hours a week increased from 15m in 2019 to 22m in 2022. Figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics are more conservative, but still show that nearly 1m more Americans are self-employed than at the start of 2020. Pandemic-era job losses forcing people into less desirable work arrangements cannot be the whole story; a similar surge in self-employment did not occur after the global financial crisis of 2007-09.

contractor
n. 承包商, 承包人, 承包公司
reliance
n. 依赖, 依靠, 信任

亚特兰大联邦储备银行去年对近500家美国公司进行的一项调查发现，18%的公司比前几年使用了更多的独立承包商;2%的人说他们用得更少了。最重要的是，13%的企业更加依赖租赁工人，而1%的企业减少了这种依赖。劳动力管理公司MBO Partners估计，每周独立工作至少15小时的美国工人数量从2019年的1500万增加到2022年的2200万。美国劳工统计局(Bureau of labor Statistics)的数据更为保守，但仍显示，与2020年初相比，自雇的美国人增加了近100万。大流行时期的失业迫使人们接受不太理想的工作安排，这不是问题的全部;在2007-09年的全球金融危机之后，自雇人数并没有出现类似的激增。

The shift is again made possible by technology, notably the spread of platforms for freelance work. Having grown slowly, from 9% of America’s labour force in 2000 to 11% in 2018, self-employment is becoming more common. Gig work is no longer just about ride-hailing or food delivery. Whereas earlier platforms, such as Taskrabbit, focused on routine tasks, emerging new ones recruit freelances for complicated work. Upwork specialises in web development; Fiverr is known for media production. Amazon turned to Tongal, another freelancing platform, when it needed a team to rapidly produce social-media content for its Prime TV shows.

notably
adv. 特别, 非常, 尤其, 极大程度上
Gig
n. 现场演唱会, 现场喜剧表演, （尤指临时的）工作, 单马双轮轻便马车
v. 坐小快艇, 乘轻便二轮马车, 给…以记过处分, 用鱼叉叉(鱼)

科技再次使这种转变成为可能，尤其是自由职业平台的普及。自雇从2000年占美国劳动力的9%增长到2018年的11%，增长缓慢，正变得越来越普遍。零工不再只是叫车或送餐。Taskrabbit等早期平台专注于日常工作，而新兴平台则招募自由职业者来处理复杂的工作。Upwork专门从事网页开发;Fiverr以媒体制作而闻名。当亚马逊需要一个团队为其Prime电视节目快速制作社交媒体内容时，它求助于另一个自由职业平台Tongal。

Besides making it easier to tap non-employees, technology is enabling companies to collaborate more seamlessly with other businesses. In 2020 Slack, the messaging platform of choice in many a workplace, launched a feature that lets users communicate with outside firms as they would within their own organisations. More than 70% of the Fortune 100 list of America’s biggest firms by revenue use the feature. The Atlanta Fed’s survey found that 16% of responding firms had increased domestic outsourcing and 6% had offshored more. Already, combined revenues for six big IT-services firms with large operations in India—Cognizant, HCLT, Infosys, TCS, Tech Mahindra and Wipro—grew by 25% between the third quarter of 2019 and the same period last year.

tap
n. 水龙头, 轻拍, 轻敲, 轻叩, 窃听
v. 开发, 轻拍, 轻敲, 轻叩, 窃听，利用（资源、知识等）
seamlessly
adv. 无缝地

除了更容易利用非员工之外，技术还使企业能够与其他企业更无缝地合作。2020年，许多工作场所首选的消息平台Slack推出了一项功能，让用户可以像在自己的组织内部一样与外部公司沟通。在美国收入最高的财富100强公司中，超过70%的公司都使用了这一功能。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的调查发现，16%的受访公司增加了国内外包，6%的公司增加了海外外包。在印度拥有大规模业务的六家大型it服务公司——cognizant、HCLT、Infosys、TCS、Tech Mahindra和wipro——的总收入在2019年第三季度与去年同期相比增长了25%。

Pinning down just how much firms depend on outsiders is tricky—companies do not advertise this sort of thing. To get an idea, Katie Moon and Gordon Phillips, two economists, look at a firm’s external purchase commitments in the upcoming year as a share of its cost of sales. As a snapshot of the economy, this measure of “outsourcing intensity” must be treated with caution; it does not capture all types of outsourcing and different firms account for external purchases in different ways. But it usefully illustrates changes over time.

pin
n. 大头针, 饰针, 旗杆, 胸针
v. 别上, 使不能动弹, 按住, 钳住
abbr. (=personal identification number)个人标识号
snapshot
n. 简介, 简要说明；快照

确定公司对外界的依赖程度是一件棘手的事情——公司不会在这类事情上大肆宣传。为了了解这一点，两位经济学家凯蒂•穆恩和戈登•菲利普斯考察了一家公司在即将到来的一年里对外采购承诺占其销售成本的比例。作为经济的一个缩影，这一衡量“外包强度”的指标必须谨慎对待;它没有涵盖所有类型的外包，不同的公司以不同的方式解释外部采购。但它有效地说明了随着时间的推移而发生的变化。

The Economist has calculated the measure using data from financial reports for a sample of large listed firms in America and Europe. They are indeed growing more reliant on others. Average outsourcing intensity in our sample has doubled from 11% in 2005 to 22% in the most recent year of data. This growth is especially pronounced among tech titans such as Apple and Microsoft; businesses that grew more slowly, such as Walmart, a retailing giant, saw small increases. This is consistent with research which finds that as firms grow larger and adopt more technologies, thus becoming more complex and unwieldy, they outsource more operations—precisely as Coase would have predicted.

《经济学人》利用美国和欧洲大型上市公司的财务报告样本数据计算出了这一指标。他们确实越来越依赖其他国家。在我们的样本中，平均外包强度从2005年的11%增加到最近一年的22%，翻了一番。这种增长在苹果(Apple)和微软(Microsoft)等科技巨头中尤为明显;而增长较慢的企业，如零售业巨头沃尔玛，则有小幅增长。这与一项研究相一致，该研究发现，随着公司规模的扩大和采用更多的技术，从而变得更加复杂和笨重，他们会外包更多的业务——这正是科斯所预测的。

As technology evolves further, so will the contours of the firm. Companies may gain more flexibility to seek out new workers for new tasks in new places. Portugal has created a visa for digital nomads, who will be able to work from the country for a year. Argentina wants to introduce a preferential exchange rate for freelance workers selling their services abroad: the “tech dollar” would ensure that they were not exposed to the rapidly devaluing peso.

contour
n. 轮廓, 外形, （地图上连接相同海拔各点的）等高线
v. 描画…的轮廓, 画…的等高[等值]线, 顺等高线(作业)
adj. (表示[循着])等高线的, 与轮廓相合的
Portugal
n. 葡萄牙, 【国】葡萄牙, 葡萄牙共和国
nomad
n. 牧民, 流浪汉
preferential
adj. 优先的, 优惠的, 优待的
n. 优先权, 特惠税率

随着技术的进一步发展，公司的轮廓也会随之变化。公司可能会获得更大的灵活性，在新的地方寻找新员工来完成新任务。葡萄牙为数字游牧民提供了一种签证，他们可以在该国工作一年。阿根廷希望为在国外销售服务的自由职业者引入优惠汇率:“技术美元”将确保他们不会受到迅速贬值的比索的影响。

For Western white-collar types, stiffer competition for jobs may compress pay. According to a working paper published last year, by Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School and colleagues, wages differ less between countries for occupations that are more prone to outsourcing. That means higher living standards for workers in poorer countries and, possibly higher profits for their employers. And for Coase, it means continued relevance. ■

stiff
adj. 不易弯曲的；硬的；挺直的；僵硬的
adv. 非常；极其；（冻）僵；（冻）硬
v. 诈骗；不还钱
n. 死尸
relevance
n. 适切, 现实意义, 有关系, 实质性

对于西方白领来说，更激烈的就业竞争可能会压缩薪酬。根据哈佛商学院的Alberto Cavallo及其同事去年发表的一篇工作论文，对于那些更倾向于外包的职业，各国之间的工资差异较小。这意味着贫穷国家工人的生活水平将提高，雇主的利润也可能提高。对科斯来说，这意味着持续的相关性。■

1755 words

America’s culture wars extend into medicine, Florida is exhibit A
Jan 8th 2023 | Washington, DC

ASIDE FROM public schools, another covid and culture-war casualty, no institution had a steeper fall in public confidence in 2021 than the medical establishment, according to Gallup, a pollster. In 2022 this downward trend continued: only Americans’ confidence in the Supreme Court and the presidency fell faster. And politics is making matters worse.

casualty
n. 受害者, 遇难者, 毁坏物, 损坏物
institution
n. (以宗教、教育等为目的的)协会, 机构; 制度, 惯例, 习俗; 大金融公司, 大金融机构; 建立; 制定
steep
adj. 险峻的，陡峭的；急剧的，大幅度的；昂贵的
n. 峭壁
v. 浸泡，浸透
establishment
n. 成立，建立；机构，企业
pollster
n. 民意测验主办人, 民意调查员

民意调查机构盖洛普(Gallup)的数据显示，除了公立学校(另一个新冠肺炎和文化战争的受害者)，2021年公众信心下降最严重的机构莫过于医疗机构。2022年，这一下降趋势继续下去:只有美国人对最高法院和总统的信心下降得更快。政治让事情变得更糟。

The decline is not new. In 1966 seven in ten Americans said they had great confidence in “the people in charge of running medicine”; by 2012 just three in ten did. Whereas in 2018 public faith in the medical establishment was nearly identical in both camps, by 2021 it had split, rising to 46% among Democrats and falling to 32% among Republicans.(see chart 1).

这种下降并不新鲜。1966年，十分之七的美国人说他们对“掌管医药的人”非常有信心;到2012年，这一比例仅为十分之三。2018年，两个阵营的公众对医疗机构的信任度几乎相同，但到2021年，这一信任度出现了分裂，民主党人的信任度升至46%，共和党人的信任度降至32%。(见表1)。

One politician who has tapped into these feelings is Ron DeSantis, Florida’s Republican governor, who sprang to prominence during the pandemic by keeping his state open in the face of establishment pressure for lockdowns. He looks likely to run for president on an “anti-woke”, “anti-migration” and “anti-mandates” platform. In December he all but added “anti-vax” to his list, requesting a grand-jury investigation into possible “crimes and wrongdoing committed against Floridians related to the covid-19 vaccine”. He also promised that a Public Health Integrity Committee would scrutinise advice from the CDC, the Food and Drug Administration and the National Institutes of Health.

tap
n. 水龙头, 轻拍, 轻敲, 轻叩, 窃听
v. 开发, 轻拍, 轻敲, 轻叩, 窃听，利用（资源、知识等）
sprang
v. 跳，跃；突然出现，涌现；突然猛烈地移动（spring 的过去式）
establishment
vax
n. Vaccination
Integrity
n. 诚实，正直；完整，完好
scrutinise
v. 仔细查看, 认真检查, 细致审查

佛罗里达州州长、共和党人罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)就是利用了这种情绪的一位政治家。疫情期间，他在建制派要求封锁的压力下保持该州开放，从而一举成名。他看起来很可能以“反觉醒”、“反移民”和“反强制”为竞选纲领。去年12月，他几乎把“反vax”加入了自己的清单，要求大陪审团调查“与covid-19疫苗有关的针对佛罗里达人的可能罪行和不当行为”。他还承诺，一个公共卫生诚信委员会将仔细审查来自疾控中心、食品和药物管理局以及国家卫生研究院的建议。

The state Supreme Court has since approved his request for a grand-jury probe. His state boards of medicine and osteopathy are soon expected formally to endorse guidance to ban transgender treatment for minors, a move seen by some as a political takeover of medical institutions. In his inaugural address on January 3rd the governor criticised states that “have imposed medical authoritarianism in the guise of pandemic mandates and restrictions that lack a scientific basis”.

osteopathy
n. 骨疗学, 整骨术
endorse
v. 支持, （尤指在支票背面）签名，背书, （在广告中）宣传, （在驾驶执照上）记录违章事项
transgender
adj. 变性（者）的, 易性癖（者）的, 易装癖（者）的
inaugural
adj. 就职的, 开幕的, 成立的, 创始的
n. 〈美〉就职演说
guise
n. 伪装，姿态，外衣， 名义

州最高法院已经批准了他要求大陪审团调查的请求。预计他的州医学和骨科委员会很快将正式批准禁止对未成年人进行跨性别治疗的指导意见，一些人认为此举是对医疗机构的政治接管。在1月3日的就职演说中，州长批评各州“以大流行命令和缺乏科学依据的限制为幌子实施医疗威权主义”。

Jay Hmielowski at the University of Florida assumes Mr DeSantis is signalling to his base that: “Trump supported lockdowns, I opened the state. Trump supported vaccines, I questioned aspects of vaccines.” He expects him to soften his position in the later stages of any presidential run, but adds that in this phase it makes political sense to signal a harder line. One feature of Mr DeSantis’s approach is that, as part of his attack on mainstream scientists, he presents himself as a guardian of true science. His vaccine announcement was made at a 90-minute nerdy roundtable with selected scientists discussing several studies. It was hard to imagine Donald Trump sitting through it. But Mr DeSantis listened attentively, telling his audience: “I think people want the truth and I think people want accountability, so you need to have a thorough investigation into what’s happened with these shots.”

nerdy
adj. 宅, 〈非正式〉书呆子气的, 无趣乏味的
n. 〈非正式〉书呆子, 电脑迷
roundtable
n.[C] 圆桌（会议）
attentively
adv. 注意地；聚精会神地

佛罗里达大学(University of Florida)的杰伊•赫米洛斯基(Jay Hmielowski)认为，德桑蒂斯是在向他的选民发出信号:“特朗普支持封锁，我开放了这个州。特朗普支持疫苗，我质疑疫苗的某些方面。”他预计，在任何总统竞选的后期阶段，他都会软化自己的立场，但他补充说，在这个阶段，发出更强硬的信号在政治上是有意义的。德桑蒂斯方法的一个特点是，作为他攻击主流科学家的一部分，他把自己塑造成真正科学的守护者。他在一个90分钟的书呆子圆桌会议上宣布了疫苗的消息，一些科学家讨论了几项研究。很难想象唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)能坐到最后。但德桑蒂斯认真地听着，告诉他的听众:“我认为人们想要真相，我认为人们想要问责，所以你需要彻底调查这些枪击事件发生了什么。”

That last criticism is not without grounds. Many countries struggled with imperfect decision-making between scientists and politicians during the early stages of covid-19. But whereas others mostly got through without seriously harming science’s reputation, America did not. In the run-up to the 2020 presidential election, Democrats also politicised the issue of vaccines. In a televised debate Kamala Harris, now the vice-president, said that she would be vaccinated if public-health professionals recommended it, “but if Donald Trump tells us that we should take it, I’m not taking it.” Efforts to stifle dissenting views on topics such as mask efficacy and school closures did not help.

Democrat
n. 民主党人, 民主主义者
televise
v. 用电视播送
closure
n. 关闭, 倒闭, （路或桥的）暂时封闭
v. 使结束

最后一种批评并非没有根据。在covid-19的早期阶段，许多国家的科学家和政治家之间的决策不完善。但是，当其他国家大多在没有严重损害科学声誉的情况下通过了审查，美国却没有。在2020年总统大选前夕，民主党人还将疫苗问题政治化。在一场电视辩论中，现任副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)表示，如果公共卫生专业人士建议，她会接种疫苗，“但如果唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)告诉我们应该接种，我不会接种。”在口罩功效和关闭学校等话题上压制不同意见的努力没有起到作用。

Few areas of medicine have become as politically heated, and in need of cool-headed research, as treatment of transgender children. Neither side seems to be engaging in good faith. Some Democrats have misrepresented the medical consensus on how best to help children with gender-related distress, presenting this as a closed matter when there is no global scientific consensus. The cherry-picking of evidence by medical bodies such as the American Academy of Paediatrics helps explain why Republicans have become twice as likely as Democrats to believe scientists have agendas beyond the pursuit of scientific fact.

misrepresent
v. 误传，不实报道，歪曲
consensus
n. 一致的意见, 共识
Paediatrics
n. 儿科学

很少有医学领域像跨性别儿童的治疗一样，在政治上变得如此激烈，需要冷静的研究。双方似乎都没有诚意。一些民主党人歪曲了关于如何最好地帮助患有性别相关痛苦的儿童的医学共识，在没有全球科学共识的情况下，将这一问题说成是一个封闭的问题。美国儿科学会(American Academy of pediatrics)等医学机构精心挑选的证据有助于解释为什么共和党人比民主党人更有可能相信科学家有超越追求科学事实的议程。

Mr DeSantis’s determination to ban transgender treatment for minors may partly be a reaction to a lack of scientific rigour on the issue by Democrats, and some of America’s medical bodies. Several southern governors have sought similar bans, but most have been blocked in courts. By going through his state’s board of medicine, Mr DeSantis not only ensures that the ban is more likely to get through but will also enable him to claim it is based in science. “Florida appears to be the focus group for now,” warns Brandon Wolf from Equality Florida, an LGBTQ+ rights group, “If successful, I can guarantee you will see other states replicate it.”

replicate
v. 复制, （精确地）仿制, 再造, 再生
adj. 【植】折转的
n. 【统】重复实验中的一次

德桑蒂斯先生决定禁止对未成年人进行跨性别治疗，这在一定程度上可能是对民主党人和一些美国医疗机构在这一问题上缺乏科学严谨性的反应。南方的几个州长也曾寻求类似的禁令，但大多数都被法院驳回。通过州医学委员会的审核，德桑蒂斯不仅能确保禁令更有可能通过，还能让他宣称禁令是基于科学的。LGBTQ+权利组织Equality Florida的布兰登·沃尔夫(Brandon Wolf)警告说:“佛罗里达州目前似乎是焦点小组，如果成功了，我可以保证你会看到其他州效仿它。”

Science the following
Political opportunism, with both parties loving science where it suits them and spitting it out where it does not, is nothing new to James Cantor, a sex researcher who has seen “fair-weather friends” come and go. He has acted as an expert witness for Florida’s government in several gender-care cases. He remembers how 20 years ago he was pitted against lesbians and feminists because he focused on the role of biology in explaining differences between the sexes, whereas they saw most differences as social constructs. “Well, here we are 20 years later and suddenly I’m their darling now the science, which hasn’t changed, suits their argument [that sex differences are real],” he chuckles.

opportunism
n. 机会主义
feminist
n. 女权主义者, 女性主义者, 女权运动者
chuckle
v. 低声轻笑, 轻声地笑
n. 吃吃的笑, (母鸡的)咯咯声

政治上的机会主义，两党在科学适合自己的地方都喜欢科学，在不适合自己的地方就把科学吐出来，这对性学研究者詹姆斯·康托尔来说并不是什么新鲜事，他见证过“酒酒朋友”的来来去去。他曾在几起性别护理案件中担任佛罗里达州政府的专家证人。他还记得20年前，他是如何与女同性恋和女权主义者针锋相对的，因为他专注于生物学在解释性别差异方面的作用，而他们则把大多数差异视为社会结构。他笑着说:“20年过去了，我突然成了他们的宠儿，现在科学没有改变，符合他们的论点(性别差异是真实存在的)。”

All this has real consequences. Republican voters are less likely to get a covid-19 booster. They have also become more hesitant about other vaccines, including flu shots (see chart 2). An outbreak of measles in Ohio in November and December seemed entirely caused by unvaccinated children. “We haven’t had politicised epidemics before,” says Robert Blendon, at Harvard University. “There were never Republican views of polio, or H1N1 or smallpox, and Democrat views.” ■

hesitant
adj. 犹豫的, 踌躇的, 不情愿的
measles
n. 麻疹

所有这些都产生了切实的后果。共和党选民不太可能得到covid-19增强剂。他们对其他疫苗也变得更加犹豫，包括流感疫苗(见表2)。11月和12月在俄亥俄州爆发的麻疹似乎完全是由未接种疫苗的儿童引起的。哈佛大学的罗伯特•布伦登说:“我们以前从未遇到过将流行病政治化的情况。”共和党从来没有对小儿麻痹症、甲型H1N1流感或天花的看法，民主党也没有。”■

941 words

What the great reopening means for China—and the world
This year’s biggest economic event is already under way
Jan 2nd 2023

WHEN ITS borders open on January 8th, China will have spent 1,016 days closed to the outside world. The country’s “zero-covid” policy has been a social and economic experiment without precedent: a vast public-health campaign that mostly kept the disease at bay; Xi Jinping’s pride and joy; and, by the end, a waking nightmare for many of China’s 1.4bn people.

experiment
n. 实验, 试验, 尝试, 实践
v. 尝试, 试用, 做试验, 进行实验
precedent
n. 先例, 前例, 可援用参考的具体例子, 实例
adj. 在前的, 优先的

到1月8日边境开放之时，中国将有1016天闭关锁国之日。该国的“零covid”政策是一项史无前例的社会和经济实验:一场大规模的公共卫生运动，在很大程度上遏制了这种疾病;最终，对于14亿中国人中的许多人来说，这将是一场清醒的噩梦。

Armies in white hazmat suits have been deployed to collect tens of billions of throat and nasal swabs. Millions were quarantined or hauled off to fever camps, often arbitrarily. Fear of isolation sent people fleeing from offices and factories where cases were found. Amateur videos captured residents leaping to their deaths from apartment blocks after weeks of seclusion. In major cities daily life stood still for months on end. A cosmopolitan class of young, wealthy Chinese was forced to come to grips with a life without international travel. Foreign entrepreneurs and executives were barred from returning to their homes and businesses in the country.

hazmat
网络 危险品运输; 应变程序;
throat
n. 咽喉, 喉咙; 嗓音, 嗓门
v. 用喉音说
nasal
adj. 鼻的, 与鼻子相关的, 带鼻音的, 从鼻腔发出的
n. 【语】鼻音, 【解】鼻骨, (钢盔的)护鼻
swab
n. （医用的）拭子, 用拭子对（人体）化验标本的采集
v. 用拭子擦拭, 擦拭（地板等）
haul
v. （用力）拉，拖（重物）
n. （赃物或非法物品的）一大批，大量；（鱼的）捕获量
arbitrarily
adv. 武断地；反复无常地；专横地；任意的
amateur
adj. 业余爱好的；业余的
n. 业余爱好者；外行
leap
v. 跳跃，跃过，猛冲
n. 跳跃，剧增，急变
adj. 闰年的
seclusion
n. 隔离, 与世隔绝, 隐居(地)
cosmopolitan
adj. 世界性的, 全球各国的, 有各国人的, 受各国文化影响的
n. 周游世界的人, 世界公民
grip
v. 紧握; 紧抓; 咬住; 夹牢; 吸引住; 有吸引力
n. 紧握, 抓牢; (车轮或鞋子的) 防滑性; 支配, 控制; 理解, 掌握; 把手; 发夹; 旅行包;

身着白色防护服的军队被派去收集数百亿份喉咙和鼻腔样本。数以百万计的人被隔离或送到发烧营地，通常是任意的。由于害怕被孤立，人们逃离了发现病例的办公室和工厂。业余视频捕捉到居民在与世隔绝数周后从公寓楼跳楼自杀的场景。在大城市里，日常生活连续几个月停滞不前。一个来自世界各地的中国年轻富裕阶层被迫接受没有国际旅行的生活。外国企业家和高管被禁止返回他们在该国的家园和企业。

Before vaccines were widely available, officials could argue this approach was needed to save lives. By the end, the experiment offered a bleak existence at an extraordinary cost. China’s economy probably grew by less than 3% in 2022. Over the past 18 months, it has forgone about $1trn-worth of GDP, according to Oxford Economics, a research firm, compared with what it would have produced had its reopening resembled the rest of the world’s. Restrictions on movement snarled the most advanced global supply chains. In November profits at industrial firms dropped by 9% year on year. Meanwhile, exchanges between China and the outside world fell to their lowest in decades. Few foreign students remain. Overseas tourism has collapsed. Mr Xi has only recently resumed foreign travel after remaining in China for two-and-a-half years.

bleak
adj. 不乐观的, 无望的, 暗淡的, 阴冷的, 荒凉的
n. 【鱼】(淡水产)银鲤
The rise of online shopping may cause a bleak prospect of conventional retailers.
网上购物的兴起，可能造成传统零售商前景惨淡。
forgo
v. 弃绝（想做的事或想得之物）
resemble
v. 与……相似，类似
snarl
v. 龇牙低吼, 咆哮着说, 不耐烦地说
n. （动物的）龇牙低吼, 愤怒叫嚷（声）, 咆哮（声）, 疼痛叫声
n. 缠结物，蓬乱的事物

在疫苗广泛使用之前，官员们可能会辩称，为了挽救生命，这种方法是必要的。到最后，这个实验以巨大的代价提供了一个凄凉的生存。2022年中国经济增速可能不到3%。研究公司牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)的数据显示，在过去18个月里，与像世界其他地区那样重新开放所能产生的GDP相比，中国已经损失了约1万亿美元的GDP。对流动的限制扰乱了最先进的全球供应链。11月份工业企业的利润同比下降了9%。与此同时，中国与外界的交流降至几十年来的最低水平。几乎没有外国学生留下来。海外旅游业已经崩溃。Xi先生在中国呆了两年半后，直到最近才恢复出国旅行。

Zero-covid lasted longer than anyone initially expected, then collapsed faster than anyone could have imagined. In a matter of weeks China has gone from some of the world’s strictest restrictions to almost none. For the population at large, fear of lockdowns and quarantine has vanished. Following a period of turbulence, economic activity is likely to rebound sharply. Increased demand for energy and commodities will be felt around the world. Investors and multinational executives will soon be able to visit offices and factories. The great reconnecting of China with the outside world marks the end of an era: that of the global pandemic.

turbulence
n. 动荡, 紊流, 混乱, 骚乱
multinational
adj. 跨国的, 涉及多国的
n. 跨国公司

零冠病毒持续的时间比任何人最初预期的都长，然后崩溃的速度比任何人想象的都快。在短短几周内，中国已经从世界上最严格的一些限制措施变成了几乎没有限制。对于广大民众来说，对封锁和隔离的恐惧已经消失。在经历了一段时间的动荡之后，经济活动可能会大幅反弹。全球对能源和大宗商品的需求都将增加。投资者和跨国公司高管很快就可以参观办公室和工厂了。中国与外部世界的伟大连接标志着一个时代的结束:全球大流行的时代。

Normality will not arrive immediately. According to one estimate, 37m people a day are catching covid. Hospitals are overwhelmed. So are crematoria. Officials acknowledge few deaths—and face an immense challenge keeping production lines running. Tesla, a carmaker, halted operations at its factory in Shanghai on December 24th. Local officials may seal off towns to keep cases down, worries an executive. The economy could contract in the first three months of opening up, says Tommy Wu of Commerzbank. But the recovery will arrive earlier than analysts had expected. Many think the period of volatility will draw to a close by the end of March. At that point, a recovery will begin that should gain strength as the year progresses.

crematoria
n. 火葬场;
[词典] crematorium的复数;
crematorium
n. 火葬场
immense
adj. 巨大的，广大的
volatility
n. 挥发性, 挥发度, 反复无常, 轻浮

常态不会马上到来。据估计，每天有3700万人感染新冠病毒。医院人满为患。火葬场也是如此。官员们承认死亡人数很少，但维持生产线运转面临巨大挑战。12月24日，汽车制造商特斯拉在上海的工厂停产。一位行政人员担心，当地官员可能会封锁城镇以控制病例。德国商业银行的Tommy Wu说，开放的头三个月经济可能会收缩。但经济复苏的到来将早于分析师的预期。许多人认为，波动期将在3月底结束。到那时，经济复苏将开始，并随着今年的进展而增强。

Li Pengfei, until recently a product manager at an industrial-software firm in Beijing, is among those desperate for a return to normality. Mr Li lost his job in February when restrictions made basic duties, such as travelling to meet clients, near-impossible. He spent part of last year living with his sister, but was forced to return home to Jilin province in China’s far northeast, where economic prospects were dismal even before the pandemic. “Things seem so volatile that even the big companies are downsizing,” he says.

desperate
adj. 绝望的；不顾一切的，拼命的；极度渴望的，极其需要…的；（局势）危急的，严峻的
dismal
adj. 忧郁的, 凄凉的, 惨淡的, 阴沉的
n. 〈口〉忧郁, 〈美〉沼地
volatile
adj. 易变的, 无定性的, 无常性的, 可能急剧波动的

不久前还在北京一家工业软件公司担任产品经理的李鹏飞(音)就是渴望回归正常生活的人之一。今年2月，由于种种限制，他几乎不可能履行出差会见客户等基本职责，因此丢掉了工作。他去年有一段时间和妹妹住在一起，但被迫回到中国东北的吉林省，那里的经济前景甚至在大流行之前就很暗淡。他表示:“形势似乎如此不稳定，连大公司都在裁员。”

Elsewhere in the world bosses worry about a “great resignation”, with workers quitting jobs or dropping out of the labour force altogether. This is less of a concern in China. The government did not hand out stimulus cheques willy-nilly, as America’s did, during the pandemic. People who lost jobs, such as Mr Li, will return to work when the opportunity arises, economists believe, helping to steady factory output.

resignation
n. 辞职; 辞呈; 屈从; 顺从, 听任; [棋]认输
cheque
n. 支票
willy-nilly
adv. 不管愿意不愿意, 无论想要不想要, 随意地, 乱糟糟地
adj. 拖延的, 不管愿不愿意的

在世界其他地方，老板们担心的是“大辞职”，即工人辞职或完全退出劳动力大军。这在中国不那么令人担忧。政府并没有像美国在疫情期间那样，随随便便地发放刺激支票。经济学家们相信，像李先生这样失业的人将在机会出现时重返工作岗位，这有助于稳定工厂产出。

Xi’s spending spree
Consumption will rise, too. Incomes have fallen, but zero-covid also squashed spending, as people avoided travelling and eating out. All told, households saved one-third of their income last year. Many will be getting back on their feet after job losses, stagnating pay and declines in the value of their homes, meaning the splurge will be limited. But Jacqueline Rong of BNP Paribas, a bank, reckons household consumption will grow by about 9% in 2023—a big improvement on the previous year’s growth rate, if not full retribution for the enforced abstemiousness of recent years.

spree
n. （常指过分）玩乐，放纵
stagnate
v. 停滞, 不发展, 不进步, 因不流动而变得污浊
splurge
v. 挥霍, 乱花（钱）, 糟蹋（钱）
n. 挥霍, 乱花钱, 糟蹋钱
retribution
n. 报应, 惩罚, 报复
abstemious
adj. 饮食有度的, 有节制的

消费也会增加。收入下降了，但零冠肺炎也抑制了支出，因为人们避免旅行和外出就餐。总之，去年家庭将收入的三分之一存了起来。许多人将在失业、工资停滞和房屋价值下跌后重新站稳脚跟，这意味着挥霍将是有限的。但是法国巴黎银行的Jacqueline Rong认为家庭消费在2023年将增长9%——如果不是对近年来强制实行的节约型消费的完全报复的话，这是对前一年增长率的巨大改善。

Reopening will also benefit China’s troubled property sector, though quite how much depends on political decisions. In November, as covid restrictions were relaxed, policymakers eased property developers’ access to financing. This should help stronger firms avoid default and at last finish building flats they have already sold to homebuyers. At China’s Central Economic Work Conference in December, policymakers promised to support “fundamental demand”, as opposed to speculative purchases. To that end, they may make further cuts to mortgage rates and down-payment requirements.

flat
adj. 水平的；平坦的；平滑的；枯燥的；无趣的；缺乏热情的；不景气的；萧条的；生意清淡的（价格）固定的；瘪的；扁平的；平淡的；单调的；断然的；绝对的
n. 公寓, 单元房, 平跟鞋, 一套房间
adv. 断然, （尤指贴着另一表面）平直地, 直截了当地, 低于标准音高
v. 住公寓, 合住公寓
speculative
adj. 推测的, 猜测的, 推断的, 揣摩的

重新开放也将有利于中国陷入困境的房地产行业，尽管这在很大程度上取决于政治决策。11月，随着covid限制的放松，政策制定者放宽了房地产开发商的融资渠道。这将有助于实力较强的公司避免违约，并最终完成已出售给购房者的公寓建设。在去年12月召开的中央经济工作会议上，政策制定者承诺支持“基本面需求”，而不是投机性购买。为此，他们可能会进一步降低抵押贷款利率和首付要求。

Forecasts for the performance of the property sector, broadly defined to include construction, services and furnishings, range widely. Activity in the industry could grow by 3% this year, according to Jing Liu of HSBC, a bank—enough to add 0.9 percentage points to China’s GDP growth. A more optimistic scenario has activity expanding by 5%, she thinks, adding 1.5 points to growth. Some households might decide that now is a good time to “buy the dip”, before prices revive or regulatory restrictions on home purchases return.

construction
n. 建设，建立；结构，构造
furnishing
n. 供给(装备)
dip
v. 蘸, 浸, （使）下降, 把（汽车前灯的）远光调为近光
n. 游一游, 泡一泡, （通常指暂时的）减少, 凹陷处
revive
v. （使）苏醒，复活；重新使用；重新上演
regulatory
adj. 管理的, 调整的, 监管的

对房地产行业(广义上包括建筑、服务和家具)表现的预测范围很大。汇丰银行(HSBC)的刘晶(Jing Liu)表示，今年该行业的活动可能增长3%——足以为中国的GDP增长增加0.9个百分点。她认为，更乐观的情况是经济活动将扩张5%，为增长率增加1.5个百分点。一些家庭可能认为，在房价回升或对购房的监管限制恢复之前，现在是“逢低买入”的好时机。

The economic implications of reopening extend further afield. Zero-covid kept a lid on China’s demand for global goods, services and commodities. During the lockdown of Shanghai in the first half of last year, for instance, the country’s oil demand fell by 2m barrels per day. In the past, such drops in Chinese spending would have deprived the world economy of a crucial engine of growth. The covid downturn has been different. It coincided with an overheated economy in America and an interrupted supply of energy across Europe. “At least this time China isn’t contributing to inflation,” says Louis Kuijs of S&P Global, a rating agency.

implication
n. 暗示，含义；可能引发的后果
afield
adv. 在更远处
Don’t go too far afield or we might lose you.
不要走得太远，要不然我们会找不到你的。
lid
n. 盖子；眼睑；限制
v. 给装盖子
coincide
v. 同时发生；相同，相符；位置重合，重叠
They didn’t coincide in opinion.
他们的意见不统一。
interrupted
adj. 打断的

重新开放对经济的影响进一步扩大。“零疫情”抑制了中国对全球商品、服务和大宗商品的需求。例如，在去年上半年上海封城期间，该国的石油需求每天下降了200万桶。在过去，中国支出的大幅下降会让世界经济失去一个至关重要的增长引擎。新冠疫情的低迷有所不同。与此同时，美国经济过热，欧洲能源供应中断。评级机构标普全球的Louis Kuijs说:“至少这次中国没有助长通货膨胀。”

China’s recovery will lift global growth for the simple reason that the country is a large part of the world economy. HSBC reckons that one year from now, in the first quarter of 2024, China’s GDP could be as much as 10% higher than it will be in the first three troubled months of 2023 (see chart 1). According to our rough calculation, a recovering China could account for two-thirds of global growth in that period.

calculation
n. 计算

中国的复苏将提振全球经济增长，原因很简单，因为中国是世界经济的重要组成部分。汇丰银行(HSBC)估计，一年后，也就是2024年第一季度，中国的GDP可能会比2023年前三个困难的月高出10%(见图1)。根据我们的粗略计算，在此期间，一个正在复苏的中国可能会贡献全球经济增长的三分之二。

In time, however, China’s recovery may have unfortunate side-effects. In other big economies, the binding constraint on economic expansion is monetary policy, as central banks raise interest rates to suppress inflation. If China’s reopening looks like raising global demand and therefore price pressure to an uncomfortable degree, central banks elsewhere may have to respond by tightening policy to offset the threat. In such a scenario, the impact of China’s reopening on the rest of the world may show up not in higher growth but in higher inflation or interest rates.

constraint
n. 限制；限定；约束，严管
expansion
n. 扩大；扩充；发展；膨胀

然而，随着时间的推移，中国的复苏可能会产生令人遗憾的副作用。在其他大型经济体中，货币政策是经济扩张的约束性约束，央行会提高利率以抑制通胀。如果中国的重新开放看起来会将全球需求推高，从而导致价格压力达到令人不安的程度，其他国家的央行可能不得不通过收紧政策来应对，以抵消这一威胁。在这种情况下，中国重新开放对世界其他地区的影响可能不会表现为更高的增长，而是表现为更高的通胀或利率。

China’s most direct channel of influence is through commodities. It consumes almost one-fifth of the world’s oil, over half of refined copper, nickel and zinc, and more than three-fifths of iron ore. On November 4th the mere rumour of a reopening caused a 7% increase in the price of copper by the end of the day. As the rumours are realised, China’s demand for metals, crops and energy will help exporters of commodities, hurt importers and give the world’s central banks another headache in their fight against inflation.

ore
n. 矿, 矿石, 矿砂
rumour
n. 谣言，传闻
realise
. 了解, 意识到; 实现

中国最直接的影响力渠道是通过大宗商品。中国消耗了全球近五分之一的石油，超过一半的精炼铜、镍和锌，以及超过五分之三的铁矿石。11月4日，仅仅是关于重新开放的传言就导致铜价在当天收盘时上涨了7%。随着传言成为现实，中国对金属、农作物和能源的需求将有利于大宗商品出口国，损害进口国，并让世界各国央行在抗击通胀时又一个头疼的问题。

Heavy metal demand
China’s appetite for metals remained strong during zero-covid, as the government encouraged spending on electric vehicles, renewable energy and other forms of green infrastructure, all of which require lots of aluminium, copper and other metals. But buyers lacked the confidence to stock up on these materials: inventories of copper fell to their skimpiest in 15 years. Reopening will encourage restocking. In November Goldman Sachs, a bank, reckoned the price of copper would increase to $9,000 per tonne within 12 months. Now it thinks the price will reach $11,000.

appetite
n. 胃口, 食欲; 欲望; 爱好
skimpy
adj. 小而暴露的, 不够的
tonne
n. 吨（等于 1 000 公斤）

在零冠肺炎期间，中国对金属的需求仍然强劲，因为政府鼓励在电动汽车、可再生能源和其他形式的绿色基础设施上进行投资，所有这些都需要大量的铝、铜和其他金属。但买家缺乏囤积这些材料的信心:铜库存降至15年来的最低水平。重新开业将鼓励重新进货。11月，高盛银行预计铜价将在12个月内上涨至每吨9000美元。现在它认为价格将达到1.1万美元。

Demand for energy proved less resilient, particularly towards the end of zero-covid. China’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fell by about one-fifth in the first 11 months of 2022, compared with the same period of the previous year. This allowed Europe to increase purchases to make up for the loss of Russian gas. Thus China’s zero-covid policy acted as a counterweight to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—one blunder helping to save Europe from the other.

resilient
adj. 可迅速恢复的, 有适应力的, 有弹性（或弹力）的, 能复原的
counterweight
n. 抗衡因素, 平衡重量
v. 同“counterweigh”
blunder
n. 愚蠢的错误
v. 犯（愚蠢的）错误；跌跌撞撞地走

事实证明，能源需求的弹性较弱，特别是在零冠疫情结束之前。与去年同期相比，2022年前11个月中国液化天然气(LNG)进口量下降了约五分之一。这使得欧洲能够增加购买，以弥补俄罗斯天然气的损失。因此，中国的零冠政策对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰起到了平衡作用——一个错误帮助欧洲从另一个错误中拯救出来。

Analysts assume a modest rise in Chinese LNG imports this year, based on the contracts buyers have already signed and their reluctance to buy LNG when prices are high. If imports recover faster, Europe could feel the pinch. In a stress test in December the International Energy Agency (IEA), an official forecaster, assumed Chinese demand would increase by about a quarter in the year ahead, returning to 2021 levels; Russia would cut off piped gas to Europe entirely; and winter would start punctually. In such a scenario Europe would face a shortfall of 27bn cubic metres of gas, equivalent to 7% of annual demand, even after its current efforts to increase supply are taken into account. The IEA warns that if nothing else is done, Europe may be forced to introduce rationing.

pinch
v. 捏, 掐, 拧, 捏住; 使紧缺, 节制
n. 捏, 掐, 拧; 一撮; 紧缺; 紧急情况
adj. 【棒球】由替补击球员完成的, 替补的
punctually
adv. 准时地，如期地
shortfall
n. 差额, 缺口, 亏空
cubic
adj. 立方的；立方体的
metre
n. 米； 公尺；用于竞赛名称；（诗的）格律
rationing
n. 配给制, 定量配给政策
v. “ration”的现在分词

分析师们认为，基于买家已经签署的合同，以及他们在价格高企时不愿购买液化天然气，中国今年的液化天然气进口量将温和增长。如果进口恢复得更快，欧洲可能会感到压力。在12月的压力测试中，官方预测机构国际能源署(IEA)假设中国的需求在未来一年将增长约四分之一，恢复到2021年的水平;俄罗斯将完全切断输往欧洲的管道天然气;冬天会准时到来。在这种情况下，欧洲将面临270亿立方米的天然气短缺，相当于年需求的7%，即使考虑到目前增加供应的努力。国际能源署警告称，如果不采取其他措施，欧洲可能会被迫实行配给。

The impact on oil could also be significant. If China’s economy makes a full recovery in 2023, it will gradually increase crude imports throughout the year until it has added an average of 1m barrels a day, reckons Soni Kumari of ANZ, a bank. This will compensate for reduced demand in Europe and America, both of which are courting recession. Indeed, Goldman Sachs forecasts that China’s increased appetite could push up oil prices by about $15 per barrel. The price of Brent could exceed $100 again in the third quarter of this year, it reckons, making the global battle against inflation still more difficult.

compensate
v. 补偿；弥补；赔偿，赔款
Who will compensate for the losses?
谁将赔偿损失？
court
n. 法庭; 法院; 全体法官(审判员); 审判庭; 球场; 朝廷; 宫廷; 院子; 殷勤; 追求, 求婚
v. 追求, 求婚; 寻求, 吸引; 向…献殷勤; 招致
recession
n. 经济衰退, 经济萎缩, 退后, 撤回
appetite
n. 胃口, 食欲; 欲望; 爱好
The walk gave me a good appetite.
散步使我胃口大开。

对石油的影响也可能很大。澳新银行(ANZ)的Soni Kumari估计，如果中国经济在2023年全面复苏，它将在全年逐步增加原油进口，直到平均每天增加100万桶。这将弥补欧洲和美国需求的减少，这两个国家都在走向衰退。事实上，高盛(Goldman Sachs)预测，中国需求的增加可能将油价推高每桶约15美元。该机构估计，布伦特原油价格可能在今年第三季度再次超过100美元，这将使全球抗击通胀的斗争更加困难。

Higher commodity prices will be a boon to exporters like Chile and Brazil, but hurt China’s energy-importing neighbours. For India, the loss from higher prices may cancel out gains from increased exports to the mainland. Other countries, more tightly enmeshed in China’s manufacturing supply chain, seem better placed to benefit. But raw statistics can be deceptive. Although Taiwan’s merchandise exports to the mainland were equivalent to more than 15% of GDP in 2021, many were components for products that are ultimately sold to customers outside China, and may thus be unaffected by the change of policy.

boon
n. 非常有用的东西, 益处
Falling phone prices are a boon for consumers.
手机价格下跌对消费者来说是一大福音。
enmeshed
adj. 被缠住的；落入圈套的
deceptive
adj. 欺骗性的, 误导的, 骗人的
merchandise
n. 商品；货品
v. 推销；（运用广告等）销售

大宗商品价格上涨将有利于智利和巴西等出口国，但会损害中国的能源进口邻国。对印度来说，价格上涨带来的损失可能会抵消对中国大陆出口增加带来的收益。其他与中国制造业供应链联系更紧密的国家，似乎更有可能从中受益。但原始数据可能具有欺骗性。尽管2021年台湾对大陆的商品出口相当于GDP的15%以上，但许多是最终销售给中国大陆以外客户的产品零部件，因此可能不会受到政策变化的影响。

The biggest boost to neighbours will come not from selling goods to China but from selling tourist destinations to Chinese citizens (see chart 2). Ni Na, a mother of two from Shanghai, travelled overseas about five times a year pre-pandemic, often spending three or four months a year outside the country. She attempted to travel once within China in 2022, only to give up owing to restrictions. When quarantine requirements are lifted, Ms Ni will get back on the road. She has renewed her passport and her sons’ travel documents in anticipation.

destination
n. 目的地，终点
anticipation
n. 预期, 期望, 预计, 预料

对邻国最大的推动将不是向中国出售商品，而是向中国公民出售旅游目的地(见表2)。倪娜(音译)来自上海，是两个孩子的母亲，在疫情前每年出国约五次，通常每年有三到四个月的时间在国外。她曾试图在2022年在中国境内旅行一次，但由于限制而放弃。当隔离要求解除后，倪女士将重新上路。她已经为自己的护照和儿子的旅行证件续签了。

Thailand, a popular destination, could enjoy a three-percentage-point boost to growth once China has fully reopened, reckons Goldman Sachs. That would remove the uncertainty weighing on local asset prices, including the currency, says Arup Raha of Oxford Economics, reducing pressure on the central bank to raise rates—welcome freedom in a country where output is still below potential. But the biggest winner will be Hong Kong. Increased exports, which include tourism, could boost its GDP by almost 8% after full reopening. The city used to attract more than 4m mainland visitors a month. Without them, it has felt roomier but poorer.

output
n. （人、机器、机构的）产量, 输出, 输出功率, 输出量
v. 输出
roomy
adj. 宽敞的；宽大的

高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计，一旦中国完全重新开放，热门旅游目的地泰国的经济增长率将提高3个百分点。牛津经济研究院的Arup Raha说，这将消除影响当地资产价格(包括货币)的不确定性，减轻中央银行提高利率的压力——在一个产出仍低于潜力的国家，这是受欢迎的自由。但最大的赢家将是香港。全面重新开放后，包括旅游业在内的出口增长可能会使其GDP增长近8%。过去，香港每月吸引逾400万内地游客。没有他们，它感觉更宽敞，但更贫穷。

The Communist Party is deft at rewriting history. Yet Mr Xi will struggle to shake the damage done to his reputation in 2022. The clumsy enforcement of zero-covid, followed by its hasty abandonment, will go down as an error for the ages. Many investment houses adjusted their risk assessments for China, and will allocate less to the country over the next three years unless they are compensated for it. About $18bn of foreign exchange flowed out of China in November, up from $11bn in October. These outflows are expected to reverse when China’s economy stabilises in 2023, but a swift return to the type of inflows witnessed before the pandemic is unlikely.

deft
adj. 熟练的, 灵巧的, 机敏的, 有技巧的
clumsy
adj. 笨拙的, 不灵巧的, 无技巧的, 冒犯人的
hasty
adj. 匆忙的, 仓促而就的, 草率的, 仓促行事
abandonment
n. 放弃, 抛弃, 遗弃, 离弃
allocate
v. 拨…（给）, 划…（归）, 分配…（给）
compensate
v. 补偿；弥补；赔偿，赔款
outflow
n. 外流, 流出量
overflow 充满，溢出

共产党善于改写历史。“零covid”政策的笨拙执行，以及随后的仓促放弃，将被视为一个错误而载入史册。许多投资机构调整了对中国的风险评估，并将在未来3年减少对中国的投资，除非它们得到补偿。11月，约180亿美元外汇流出中国，高于10月的110亿美元。预计在2023年中国经济企稳时，资本外流将出现逆转，但不太可能迅速回到疫情前的资本流入水平。

Deep damage has been done to parts of China’s supply chain. A covid outbreak, followed by protests, at a plant making Apple’s iPhone 14 in central China has delayed orders for the product. For foreign firms, the crisis was the first time that central policy interfered with local officials’ commitment to keep factories running. Many companies are now willing to pay more to manufacture elsewhere. Take the process of launching new products, which requires an almost continuous flow of researchers and scientists between headquarters, usually in the West, and plants in China. The covid years made this dance impossible. Engineers stopped visiting; fewer new products were launched in the country. Multinational firms have been forced, often reluctantly, to launch elsewhere.

commitment
n. 承诺, 投入, 保证, 许诺；委托；献身

中国部分供应链受到了严重损害。中国中部一家生产苹果iPhone 14的工厂爆发了新冠疫情，随后引发了抗议活动，推迟了该产品的订单。对于外国公司来说，这场危机是中央政策第一次干涉地方官员维持工厂运转的承诺。许多公司现在愿意花更多的钱在其他地方生产。以推出新产品的过程为例，这需要在总部(通常位于西方)和中国工厂之间几乎不间断地输送研究人员和科学家。新冠疫情让这种舞蹈变得不可能。工程师们不再来访;在该国推出的新产品更少。跨国公司被迫(通常是不情愿地)在其他地方开展业务。

But after years of zero-covid, bosses have become more comfortable with moving away from China. Inbound investment in new “greenfield” factories has plummeted (see chart 3). At the same time, the number of firms moving operations out of China has jumped, says Alex Bryant of East West Associates, a supply-chain consultant. Most of the moves Mr Bryant’s firm has assisted with over the past year have been outbound. He thinks the reopening of China is unlikely to lead to an immediate turnaround in the direction of traffic.

Inbound
adj. 到达的, 归航的
plummet
v. 暴跌, 速降
n. 测锤(钓丝的)坠子, 线锤, 铅锤线, 锤规
consultant
n. 顾问, 高级顾问医师, 会诊医师
outbound
adj. 向外的, 出港的, 离开某地的
v. 跳过
turnaround
n. 转机，好转；（轮船、飞机的）终点装卸时间；周转时间；处理时间；彻底转变

但在多年无疫情后，老板们对离开中国变得更加放心。对新“绿地”工厂的外来投资大幅下降(见表3)。与此同时，将业务迁出中国的公司数量激增，东西方联合公司的供应链顾问亚历克斯•布莱恩特说。在过去的一年里，布莱恩特的公司所协助的大部分交易都是对外的。他认为，中国重新开放不太可能立即导致交通方向的好转。

A thousand meetings
Policymakers are waking up to the danger. Officials and businessfolk from Fujian, Guangdong, Sichuan, Zhejiang and elsewhere are planning trips abroad to win back investors, according to a state-media report. “A meeting is worth a thousand emails,” it said. In December China’s leaders announced a focus on attracting foreign money, emphasising that local governments should prioritise finding investors. Such language has not been used at a Politburo meeting in many years, notes Robin Xing of Morgan Stanley, a bank. “They clearly want to keep their place in the global supply chain,” he says. Nevertheless, making up for the chaos of 2022 will require an awful lot of meetings. ■

businessfolk
商业人士
prioritise
v. 按重要性排列；划分优先顺序 ；优先考虑或处理
awful
adj. 可怕的，骇人的；难过的；极坏的，糟糕的，极讨厌的；非常的，极大的；使人敬畏的，庄严的
adv. 极其，非常

政策制定者正在意识到这种危险。据官方媒体报道，福建、广东、四川、浙江等地的官员和商人正计划出国旅行，以赢回投资者。“一次会议抵得上一千封电子邮件，”它说。去年12月，中国领导人宣布了吸引外资的重点，强调地方政府应优先寻找投资者。摩根士丹利银行的Robin Xing指出，这样的语言已经多年没有在政治局会议上使用过了。他表示:“他们显然希望保持自己在全球供应链中的地位。”然而，弥补2022年的混乱将需要大量的会议。■

2420 words

How China’s reopening will disrupt the world economy
A tale of death, growth and inflation
Jan 5th 2023

FOR THE better part of three years—1,016 days to be exact—China will have been closed to the world. Most foreign students left the country at the start of the pandemic. Tourists have stopped visiting. Chinese scientists have stopped attending foreign conferences. Expat executives were barred from returning to their businesses in China. So when the country opens its borders on January 8th, abandoning the last remnants of its “zero-covid” policy, the renewal of commercial, intellectual and cultural contact will have huge consequences, mostly benign.

disrupt
v. 扰乱, 打乱, 使中断
tale
n. （尤指充满惊险的）故事, 历险记, （精彩但不一定完全真实的）讲述
exact
adj. 精确的, 准确的, 严谨的, 严格的
v. 要求, 索取, 迫使, 强迫
Expat
n. 同 expatriate（n. 移居外国者）
barred
adj. 有栅栏的；有条纹的
v. 禁止；阻挡，拦住；（用铁条或木条）封住（bar的过去式和过去分词）
remnant
n. 残余部分, 剩余部分, （织物的）零头, 布头
adj. 剩余的
renewal
n. 重新开始；恢复；有效期延长；改进；振兴；翻新
benign
adj. 善良的, 和善的, 慈祥的, 良性的

在三年的大部分时间里——确切地说是1016天——中国将对世界关闭。大多数外国学生在疫情开始时离开了这个国家。游客们不再来了。中国科学家已经不再参加国外的会议。外籍高管被禁止返回他们在中国的企业。因此，当该国于1月8日开放边境，放弃“零covid”政策的最后残余时，商业、知识和文化联系的恢复将产生巨大的影响，大部分是良性的。

First, however, there will be horror. Inside China, the virus is raging. Tens of millions of people are catching it every day . Hospitals are overwhelmed. Although the zero-covid policy saved many lives when it was introduced (at great cost to individual liberties), the government failed to prepare properly for its relaxation by stockpiling drugs, vaccinating more of the elderly and adopting robust protocols to decide which patients to treat where. Our modelling suggests that, if the virus spreads unchecked, some 1.5m Chinese will die in the coming months.

horror
n. 恐惧, 厌恶, 震惊, 对某事物的强烈畏惧（或憎恨）
raging
adj. 强烈的, 极其强大的, 猛烈的, 很严重的
v. 席卷，发火（rage的现在分词）
robust
adj. 强健的, 强壮的, 结实的, 耐用的
protocol
n. 议定书, 礼仪, 外交礼节, 条约草案
v. 打(草稿), (把…)记入议定书

然而，首先会有恐惧。在中国国内，病毒正在肆虐。每天有数千万人感染这种病毒。医院人满为患。尽管零冠政策在推出时挽救了许多生命(以牺牲个人自由为代价)，但政府未能为放松政策做好适当准备，囤积药物，为更多老年人接种疫苗，并采用强有力的方案来决定哪些患者在哪里治疗。我们的模型表明，如果病毒不受控制地传播，未来几个月将有约150万中国人死亡。

There is not much outsiders can do to help. For fear of looking weak, the Chinese government spurns even offers of free, effective vaccines from Europe. But the rest of the world can prepare for the economic effects of the Communist Party’s great U-turn. These will not be smooth. China’s economy could contract in the first quarter, especially if local officials reverse course and seal off towns to keep cases down. But eventually economic activity will rebound sharply, along with Chinese demand for goods, services and commodities. The impact will be felt on the beaches of Thailand, across firms such as Apple and Tesla, and at the world’s central banks. China’s reopening will be the biggest economic event of 2023.

spurn
v. （尤指傲慢地）拒绝
n. 拒绝, 藐视, 唾弃, 不理睬
contract
n. 合同，契约
v. 签合同；缩小；感染
seal
v. 密封, 封住; 盖印; 封锁
n. 印章; 封条; 海豹; 标志

外界也无能为力。由于担心显得软弱，中国政府甚至拒绝欧洲提供免费有效的疫苗。但世界其他地区可以为共产党180度大转弯的经济影响做好准备。这些过程不会一帆风顺。中国经济可能会在第一季度出现收缩，特别是如果地方官员改变方针，封锁城镇以控制病例的话。但最终经济活动将大幅反弹，中国对商品、服务和大宗商品的需求也将大幅反弹。泰国的海滩，苹果和特斯拉这样的公司，以及世界各国的中央银行都将感受到这种影响。中国重新开放将是2023年最大的经济事件。

As the year progresses and the worst of the covid wave passes, many of the sick will return to work. Shoppers and travellers will spend more freely. Some economists reckon that GDP in the first three months of 2024 could be a tenth higher than in the troubled first quarter of 2023. Such a sharp rebound in such a huge economy means that China alone could power much of global growth over the period.

随着时间的推移，新冠疫情最严重的时期过去了，许多病人将重返工作岗位。购物者和旅行者将更加自由地消费。一些经济学家估计，2024年前三个月的GDP可能比陷入困境的2023年第一季度高出十分之一。如此庞大的经济体出现如此剧烈的反弹，意味着在此期间，仅中国就可以为全球增长提供很大一部分动力。

The party is banking on it. It hopes to be judged not on the tragedy its incompetence is compounding, but on the economic recovery to follow. In Xi Jinping’s year-end address, the party chief thanked pandemic workers for bravely sticking to their posts and, while nodding to “tough challenges” ahead, promised that “The light of hope is right in front of us.” He sounded eager to look past the pandemic, emphasising the chances of a swift economic revival in 2023 and offering reasons to be proud of living in a rising China under party rule.

tragedy
n. 悲剧, (文学)悲剧, 不幸, 灾难
incompetence
n. 无能力, 不胜任, 不称职
compounding
n. 复合物
compound
n. 复合物；化合物；复合词；有围墙的房群, 大院；用围墙围住的场地
adj. 复合的；化合的；混合的；综合的；组合的
v. 使复合；使化合；使混合；结合, 组合；增加, 加重，加剧
revival
n. 复兴, 复苏, 再流行, （戏剧的）重演

党就指望这一点了。它希望人们评判它的标准不是它的无能加剧的悲剧，而是随之而来的经济复苏。他似乎急于把眼光放远，强调2023年经济有可能迅速复苏，并为生活在党的统治下的崛起的中国感到自豪。

The ending of China’s self-imposed isolation will be good news for places that depended on Chinese spending. Hotels in Phuket and malls in Hong Kong suffered as Chinese were locked up at home. Now would-be travellers are flocking to travel websites. Bookings on Trip.com rose by 250% on December 27th compared with the previous day. Economists are pencilling in a GDP boost for Hong Kong of as much as 8% over time. Exporters of the commodities that China consumes will also benefit. The country buys a fifth of the world’s oil, over half of its refined copper, nickel and zinc, and more than three-fifths of its iron ore.

flock
n. 兽群，鸟群；一大群；大量，众多；絮屑，毛棉填料；植绒材料，柔软贴料
v. 聚集；蜂拥
copper
n. 铜, 铜币, 警察
adj. 铜(制)的, (紫)铜色的
v. 用铜板[铜皮]盖[包]
nickel
n. 镍, （美国和加拿大的） 5 分镍币
v. (〔英语〕 -ll-) 镀镍于
zinc
n. 锌, （非洲某些地方用于搭建屋顶、棚子等的）波纹铁板
v. 用锌包

对于那些依赖中国消费的国家来说，中国自我封闭的结束将是一个好消息。由于中国人被关在家里，普吉岛的酒店和香港的商场都受到了影响。现在，想要旅行的人都涌向旅游网站。12月27日，Trip.com上的预订量与前一天相比增长了250%。经济学家预计，随着时间的推移，香港的GDP最多将增长8%。中国消费的大宗商品出口国也将从中受益。该国购买了世界上五分之一的石油，超过一半的精炼铜、镍和锌，以及超过五分之三的铁矿石。

Elsewhere, though, China’s recovery will have painful side-effects. In much of the world it could show up not in higher growth, but in higher inflation or interest rates. Central banks are already raising rates at a frenetic pace to fight inflation. If China’s reopening increases price pressure to an uncomfortable degree, they will have to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Countries that import commodities, including much of the West, are at the greatest risk of such disruption.

frenetic
adj. 发狂似的, 狂乱的

然而，在其他地方，中国的复苏将带来痛苦的副作用。在世界大部分地区，它可能不会表现为更高的增长，而是表现为更高的通胀或利率。各国央行已经在以疯狂的速度加息以抗击通胀。如果中国的重新开放使价格压力增加到令人不安的程度，他们将不得不在更长时间内保持紧缩的货币政策。进口大宗商品的国家，包括大部分西方国家，面临着这种混乱的最大风险。

Take the oil market. Rising Chinese demand should more than compensate for faltering consumption in Europe and America, as their economies slow. According to Goldman Sachs, a bank, a rapid recovery in China could help push the price of Brent crude oil to $100 a barrel, an increase of a quarter compared with today’s prices (though still below the heights reached after Russia invaded Ukraine). Rising energy costs will prove another hurdle to taming inflation.

compensate
v. 补偿；弥补；赔偿，赔款
faltering
adj. 踉跄的, 不稳的, 颤抖的, 踌躇的
v. “falter”的现在分词
falter
v. 蹒跚, 畏缩, 衰弱, 衰退
n. 结巴, 踌躇, 不稳, 摇晃
My parents never faltered in their belief in me.
我父母从未动摇过对我的信心。
hurdle
n. 跨栏, 障碍, 难关, 跨栏赛
v. （奔跑中）跳越（某物）, 参加跨栏赛

以石油市场为例。随着欧洲和美国经济增长放缓，中国不断增长的需求应该足以弥补其消费疲软的影响。根据高盛银行的说法，中国经济的快速复苏有助于将布伦特原油价格推高至每桶100美元，较目前的价格上涨四分之一(尽管仍低于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的高点)。不断上涨的能源成本将成为抑制通胀的另一个障碍。

For Europe, China’s reopening is another reason not to be complacent about gas supplies later in the year. Zero-covid, by suppressing China’s demand for gas, made it less costly than it otherwise would have been for Europe to fill its storage tanks in 2022. A strong recovery in China will mean more competition for imports of liquefied natural gas. In December the International Energy Agency, a forecaster, warned of a scenario in which winter starts punctually in 2023 and Russia cuts off piped gas to Europe entirely. That could result in shortages amounting to as much as 7% of the continent’s annual consumption, forcing it to introduce rationing.

complacent
adj. 自满的, 自鸣得意的, 表现出自满的
suppress
v. 抑制，阻止；镇压，平定；查禁；封锁；忍住
liquefied
adj. 液化的
scenario
n. 方案；设想; 可能发生的事，可能出现的情况，设想的场景；（电影、戏剧等的）剧情梗概
punctually
adv. 准时地，如期地

对欧洲来说，中国的重新开放是今年晚些时候不要对天然气供应自满的另一个原因。零冠肺炎通过抑制中国的天然气需求，使欧洲在2022年填满天然气储罐的成本低于其他情况。中国的强劲复苏将意味着液化天然气进口面临更激烈的竞争。12月，预测机构国际能源署(International Energy Agency)警告称，2023年冬季将准时到来，俄罗斯将完全切断向欧洲输送的管道天然气。这可能会导致短缺达到非洲大陆年消费量的7%，迫使其实行定量配给。

For China itself, the post-pandemic normal will not be a return to the status quo ante. After watching the government enforce zero-covid in a draconian fashion and then scrap it without due preparation, many investment houses now see China as a riskier bet. Foreign firms are less confident that their operations will not be disrupted. Many are willing to pay higher costs to manufacture elsewhere. Inbound investment in new factories seems to be slowing, while the number of companies moving business outside China has jumped, by some accounts.

draconian
adj. 德拉古式的，严酷的，残忍的
scrap
n. 碎片，小块；丝毫；废料；口角
v. 废弃，取消
Inbound
adj. 到达的, 归航的

对中国本身来说，疫情后的常态不会是回到过去的现状。在目睹政府严厉执行零冠政策，然后又在没有适当准备的情况下废弃后，许多投资机构现在将中国视为一个风险更高的赌注。外国公司不太相信他们的业务不会受到干扰。许多公司愿意支付更高的成本在其他地方生产。一些数据显示，对新工厂的外来投资似乎正在放缓，而将业务转移到中国境外的公司数量却大幅增加。

Normal not normal
As Chinese officials struggle to repair the damage, they should remember some history. China’s previous great reopening, after the stultifying isolation of the Mao years, led to an explosion of prosperity as goods, people, investment and ideas surged across its borders in both directions. Both China and the world have benefited from such flows, something politicians in Beijing and Washington seldom acknowledge. With luck, China’s current reopening will ultimately succeed. But some of the paranoid, xenophobic mood that the party stoked during the pandemic years will surely linger. Exactly how open the new China will be remains to be seen. ■

stultify
v. 使显得愚蠢, 愚弄, 使自相矛盾, (由于其后的矛盾行为)使归于无效
explosion
n. 爆炸, 激增, 突增, 猛增
surge
v. 浪涌, 激增, 汹涌, 涌动
n. 激增, （强烈感情的）突发, 大量, 一大批

在中国官员努力修复损失之际，他们应该记住一些历史。在经历了毛时代的沉闷孤立之后，中国上一次的大开放带来了商品、人口、投资和思想的双向流动，带来了繁荣的爆发。中国和世界都从这种资本流动中受益，北京和华盛顿的政客很少承认这一点。如果幸运的话，中国目前的重新开放最终将取得成功。但在疫情期间，该党煽动的一些偏执和排外情绪肯定会持续下去。新中国究竟会有多开放还有待观察。■

1025 words

Youth is wasted on the young. But wealth is wasted on the old
Jan 5th 2023

PITY THE millennial. Greying at the temples, thinning on top and thickening round the middle. Once a shorthand for rebellious youth, now even the prime minister (born in 1980, uses more than two fingers to type) falls into this increasingly aged category. The typical millennial is haunted by Instagram adverts for fertility treatment, wills and Viagra.

millennial
adj. 一千年的；千禧年的
n. 生于千禧世代的人（生于1980或1990年代的人）
Greying
adj. 灰白的
temple
n. 庙宇, 太阳穴, 犹太教堂, 圣殿
rebellious
adj. 反叛的，叛逆的， 桀骜不驯的， 叛乱的，反抗的
haunted
adj. （被认为）闹鬼的, 忧心忡忡的, 满面愁容的
v. “haunt”的过去式和过去分词
advert
n. 【英口】广告（同advertisement）
v. （在演讲或写作中）提到
fertility
n. 丰产, 富饶, 能生育性, 可繁殖性
Viagra
n. 威而刚

千禧一代真可怜。鬓角变灰，顶部变薄，中间变厚。曾经是叛逆青年的代名词，现在就连首相(出生于1980年，打字用的手指超过两根)也越来越老了。典型的千禧一代被Instagram上关于生育治疗、遗嘱和伟哥的广告所困扰。

If the ravages of time were not bad enough, then the iniquities of British society make things worse. Life is pretty tough for the generation sinking into their middle years. It is a time when people are supposed to be kicking on with their careers, rearing children and, often, caring for ageing parents. But it is also a time when housing and child-care costs combine with uneven taxes and an unbalanced welfare state to create a miserable period. Call it the Dark Ages. (Bagehot should declare an interest: he is slap-bang in the middle of them.)

ravage
v. 毁坏, 损坏, 严重损害
n. 灾害, 破坏, 暴力
iniquity
n. 很不公正
miserable
adj. 悲惨的，痛苦的

如果说时间的摧残还不够糟糕，那么英国社会的不公正让事情变得更糟。对于步入中年的这一代人来说，生活相当艰难。在这段时间里，人们应该继续自己的事业，养育孩子，通常还要照顾年迈的父母。但同时，住房和儿童保育成本与不平衡的税收和不平衡的福利国家结合在一起，造成了一个悲惨的时期。称之为黑暗时代。(白芝浩应该表明自己的兴趣:他正好站在他们中间。)

As with most problems in British politics, it all starts with housing. The average age of a first-time buyer is 32. Those who bought a house recently may be on the wrong side of a leveraged bet on the most expensive asset they will ever buy. If house prices crater, younger people will find it easier to buy; older homeowners will be insulated, having built up more equity. Those in the Dark Ages will be stuffed. Even before mortgage costs shot up, affordability was stretched. The average house costs about £300,000 ($362,000). When the median salary is about £33,000, it takes two earners to afford one. That makes child care inevitable, unless Granny and Grandpa are around.

leveraged
adj. 杠杆的；杠杆作用的
insulated
adj. 绝缘的, 隔热的
stuffed
adj. 饱
v. “stuff”的过去分词和过去式
stretch
v. 撑大；伸展，张开；延伸；舒展；绵延，延续
n. 伸展，张开；绵延的一片
inevitable
adj. 不可避免的，必然（发生）的
Granny
n. 奶奶, 姥姥
a pair of granny glasses
一副老花眼镜

与英国政治中的大多数问题一样，这一切都始于住房问题。首次购房者的平均年龄为32岁。那些最近买了房子的人可能在他们所能买到的最昂贵的资产上做了错误的杠杆赌注。如果房价暴跌，年轻人会发现买房更容易;年长的房主将不会受到影响，因为他们已经积累了更多的资产。黑暗时代的人会被填满。甚至在抵押贷款成本飙升之前，负担能力就已经捉襟见肘。房子的平均价格约为30万英镑(36.2万美元)。当工资中位数约为3.3万英镑时，两个工薪阶层才能负担得起一个家庭。这使得照顾孩子成为不可避免的，除非奶奶和爷爷在身边。

Unfortunately, Britain has among the most expensive child care in the world. British parents spend between a quarter and a third of their income, depending on how it is measured, on paying other people to look after the sprogs. The government has parked plans to give parents more free child care, along with a scheme to reduce required staffing ratios in a bid to make it cheaper.

sprog
n. 小孩, 婴儿
park
n. 公园, 园区, 运动场, 专用区
v. 停（车）, 泊（车）, （在某处）坐下（或站着）, 把…搁置
bid
n. 出价；投标；努力争取
v. 出价；投标；吩咐；努力争取

不幸的是，英国是世界上儿童保育费用最高的国家之一。英国父母将收入的四分之一到三分之一(根据衡量方式的不同)花在雇人照顾孩子上。政府计划为父母提供更多的免费托儿服务，同时还计划减少所需的人员比例，以降低成本。

Still, 30-somethings on average earnings can surely console themselves that their basic rate of income tax is a mere 20%. Unfortunately, things sometimes go haywire in the tax system—and those in the Dark Ages are often the victims. Policies such as whipping away child benefit from the moderately well-off mixes poorly with a byzantine and often cruel working-age welfare system. An unlucky household with children could in some circumstances face a marginal deduction rate of between 80% and 96%, according to the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank.

haywire
adj. 混乱的, 杂乱无章的, 匆忙拼凑成的, 〈美俚〉疯狂的
n. 〈美〉捆干草的铁丝
whip
v. 鞭打, 鞭笞, 〈口〉击败, 抽打
n. 鞭子, 【无线】鞭状天线, 投票指示, (某党)议员领袖
moderately
adv. 适当地，适度地，中庸地；勉强地，一般地
byzantine
adj. 拜占庭帝国的，东罗马帝国的
n. 拜占廷人，拜占廷风格的画家
circumstance
n. （复数）情况，环境，境况；（单数）命运
marginal
adj. 小的；微不足道的；不重要的；非主体的；边缘的；写在页间空白处的
adj. 边际的，边缘的

然而，30多岁的平均收入的人当然可以安慰自己，他们的基本所得税税率只有20%。不幸的是，税收系统有时会出现混乱，而那些在黑暗时代的人往往是受害者。诸如剥夺中等富裕阶层儿童福利的政策，与错综复杂且往往残酷的工作年龄福利制度相辅相成。根据智库决议基金会(Resolution Foundation)的数据，在某些情况下，有孩子的不幸家庭可能面临80%到96%的边际扣除率。

Every generation thinks they have it rough. Someone with a mortgage during the early 1990s may have struggled with rocketing interest rates (even if lower house prices made those loans more affordable). Houses may have been cheap in the 1960s, but petrol had lead in it, men dropped dead in their 60s and women could not open a bank account in their own name.

petrol
n. 汽油
v. 给…加汽油, 用汽油消除

每一代人都认为他们过得很艰难。在20世纪90年代初有抵押贷款的人可能一直在与飙升的利率作斗争(即使较低的房价使这些贷款更容易负担)。20世纪60年代的房子可能很便宜，但汽油里含有铅，男人60多岁就死了，女人不能以自己的名义开银行账户。

Some have it better than others, however, even if they do not always like to admit it. Those who are now at retirement age will have benefited most of all. On average someone born in 1956 will pay about £940,000 in tax throughout their life. But they are forecast to receive state benefits amounting to about £1.2m, or £291,000 net. Someone born in 1996 will enjoy less than half of that figure: a fresh-faced 27-year-old today will receive barely more than someone born in 1931, about a decade before the term “welfare state” was first popularised.

barely
adv. 仅仅, 只不过; 几乎不; 贫乏地; 光秃秃地

然而，有些人比其他人过得好，即使他们并不总是愿意承认这一点。那些现在已经到了退休年龄的人受益最多。1956年出生的人一生平均要交94万英镑的税。但预计他们将获得约120万英镑的政府补贴，即29.1万英镑净额。1996年出生的人将享受不到这一数字的一半:今天一个27岁的年轻年轻人所获得的收入仅比1931年出生的人多一点，1931年是“福利国家”一词首次流行的大约10年前。

And so a fundamental part of the social contract has broken down. Before Britons exchanged a miserable middle age for a gilded retirement. “Giving goods to an older person is figuratively giving goods to yourself when old” is a neat adage from Paul Samuelson, an economist. Those in the Dark Ages will pay more and receive less. Boomers used their demographic weight to slant the state to their benefit, argued David Willetts, a Conservative grandee, in “The Pinch”, a prescient book published in 2010 on inequality between the generations. Millennials are bearing the cost.

miserable
adj. 悲惨的，痛苦的
gilded
adj. 镀金的, 涂金色的, 富贵的, 上层阶级的
v. “gild”的过去式和过去分词
figuratively
adv. 在比喻的意义上
adage
n. 格言, 俗语
demographic
adj. 人口学的; 人口统计学的; 人口结构的
n. 人口统计数据; 特定年龄段的人口
slant
v. 歪斜, 有倾向性地陈述, 有偏向地报道
n. 倾斜, 斜面, 歪斜, 斜线
adj. 歪斜的
grandee
n. （旧时西班牙或葡萄牙的）大公, 大人物, 显要人物
Pinch
v. 捏, 掐, 拧, 捏住; 使紧缺, 节制
n. 捏, 掐, 拧; 一撮; 紧缺; 紧急情况
adj. 【棒球】由替补击球员完成的, 替补的
prescient
adj. 预知的, 先觉的
Millennials
n. 千禧一代

因此，社会契约的一个基本部分被打破了。在英国人将悲惨的中年换成镀金的退休之前。经济学家保罗•萨缪尔森(Paul Samuelson)曾说过一句简洁的格言:“把东西送给老年人，相当于把东西送给老了的自己。”那些处于黑暗时代的人将付出更多，得到更少。保守党要人大卫·威利茨(David Willetts)在2010年出版的一本关于两代人之间不平等的有先见之明的书《危机》(the Pinch)中指出，婴儿潮一代利用他们的人口权重使国家向他们的利益倾斜。千禧一代正在承担成本。

It would be better—politically, economically and socially—to offer younger voters something today. It is in the Conservatives’ political interest. British millennials are the first generation to buck the trend of drifting right with age, according to one study by the Financial Times. For some MPs this is proof that the generation is irredeemably woke. More thoughtful Conservatives take a materialist view: it is hard to vote for the party that offers them so little. At the moment, neither head, heart nor wallet provides much reason for younger people to vote Conservative.

buck
n. 雄鹿, （一）美元, （一）澳元, （一）新西兰元
v. 弓背四蹄跳起；猛然震荡；反抗，抵制（似乎难以忍受或不可避免的事物）
adv. 〈方〉完全
adj. 雄的, 〈美俚〉男的, 〈美俚〉某一军衔等级中最低一级的
drift
v. 漂流；缓慢移动；漂泊
n. 漂流，移动，（情形，意见的）渐变，趋势
irredeemable
adj. 不能改正的, 无法改进的, 不能挽救的
n. 定期偿还公债

从政治上、经济上和社会上来说，今天就为年轻选民提供一些东西会更好。这符合保守党的政治利益。英国《金融时报》的一项研究显示，英国千禧一代是第一代抵制随着年龄增长而向右漂移趋势的人。对一些议员来说，这证明了这一代人已经无可救药地觉醒了。更有思想的保守党人持唯物主义的观点:很难把票投给一个给予他们这么少的政党。目前，无论是头脑、感情还是钱包，都不能为年轻人投票给保守党提供太多理由。

Helping those stuck in the Dark Ages might boost the economy, too. Better access to child care could boost output per worker by 30% according to one controversial study, if inept male workers are replaced by competent women. Even if the gains from better child care are smaller, they would be welcome for an economy in sore need of productivity growth.

stuck
adj. 被…困住的, 陷于…而动不了的, 被…难住的, 不知所措的
v. stick的过去式及过去分词
controversial
adj. 引起争论的, 有争议的
inept
adj. 缺乏技巧的, 无能的, 笨拙的
competent
adj. 有能力的，能胜任的

帮助那些被困在黑暗时代的人也可能促进经济发展。根据一项有争议的研究，如果有能力的女性取代无能的男性工人，更好的儿童保育服务可以使每个工人的产出提高30%。即使更好的儿童保育带来的收益较小，但对于一个迫切需要提高生产率的经济体来说，这也是受欢迎的。

More self-interested millennial moaning below
Intergenerational inequality leads to intergenerational conflict. Some pensioners are poor, but more are rich. Although one in five pensioners is in poverty, one in four lives in a household with assets of more than £1m, thanks to a booming property market and generous pensions. Friction between haves and have-nots is inevitable, even if they are separated by age. Merely waiting for inheritances to cascade down through the generations is a recipe for an unhappy society.

moan
v. 呻吟, 哼叫, 抱怨(有时没原因地)
n. 呻吟声, (波浪,风等的)号, 悲叹声, 〔诗〕悲叹
pensioner
n. 领养老金（或退休金、抚恤金）者
generous
adj. 慷慨的, 大方的, 慷慨给予的, 丰富的
pension
n. 养老金, 退休金, 抚恤金
v. 给…养老金[恤金,津贴等]
adj. 有关退休金的
Friction
n. 摩擦，摩擦力；分歧，争执
inheritance
n. 继承, 继承物（如金钱、财产等）, 遗产, 遗传特征
cascade
n. 小瀑布；倾泻；下垂物；倾泻或涌出的东西
v. 倾泻；大量落下
adj. 型栅的

下面是更多自利的千禧一代的抱怨
代际不平等导致代际冲突。一些领养老金的人很穷，但更多的人很富有。尽管五分之一的养老金领取者处于贫困状态，但由于繁荣的房地产市场和丰厚的养老金，四分之一的人家庭资产超过100万英镑。富人和穷人之间的摩擦是不可避免的，即使他们被年龄分开。仅仅是等待遗产一代代传承下去，就会导致一个不幸福的社会。

Each of these problems is fixable. The government could and should do more for young parents. That child care is unaffordable is not a fact of life, as any German can attest. That Britain’s homes are small and dear is not a law of nature, but a choice of successive governments. That Britain’s taxation system is tilted too far towards income, while property wealth is left undertaxed, is a policy decision. The government could choose differently. Spread some light on the Dark Ages and everyone would be better off. ■

fixable
adj. 可固定的
attest
v. 证实, 是…的证据, 作证
taxation
n. 税收, 征税, 税制, 课税
tilt
v. （使）倾斜，倾侧
n. 倾斜，倾侧；尝试，努力

这些问题都是可以解决的。政府可以也应该为年轻的父母做更多的事情。任何德国人都可以证明，负担不起儿童保育费用并不是现实。英国人的房子小而贵，这不是自然规律，而是历届政府的选择。英国的税收体系过度向收入倾斜，而对房地产财富的征税却过低，这是一个政策决定。政府可以有不同的选择。照亮黑暗时代，每个人都会过得更好。■

1001 words

A wave of covid-19 reveals flaws in China’s health system
It is better than it used to be, but still needs reform

China has made great efforts to build an affordable health system.
Covid­-19 is revealing how much remains to be fixed

一波新冠肺炎疫情暴露了中国卫生体系的缺陷
它比以前好多了，但仍需要改革

中国在建设平价医疗体系方面做出了巨大努力。
Covid -19揭示了还有多少问题需要解决

Dec 19th 2022

WITHIN THE next month, China’s medical institutions will face their “darkest hour”. This warning by Zhang Wenhong, a prominent infectious-disease expert, has been circulated by state media. It reflects a view that not long ago would have been treated as heresy in “zero-covid” China. But with the virus now sweeping the country, including its hospitals, talk of crushing it has ceased. People are queuing for hours at fever clinics. Medical staff are falling sick in droves. In the coming weeks deaths will rise rapidly as the disease takes its toll on an undervaccinated population.

prominent
adj. 杰出的；显著的，突出的
circulate
v. 流通, 循环; 传播, 流传, 散布; 传递, 传阅
heresy
n. 宗教异端, 信奉邪说, 离经叛道的信念（或观点）
fever
n. 发热, 发烧, 狂热, 热（病）
v. 使发烧, 使患热病, 使兴奋[发狂]
clinic
n. 诊所，门诊部，科室
drove
n. 畜群
v. 赶(牲畜), (牲畜贩子)买卖(牲畜)
v. “drive”的过去式
in droves
网络 成群结队地; 成群结队; 陆陆续续;

下个月，中国的医疗机构将面临“最黑暗的时刻”。著名传染病专家张文宏的这一警告被官方媒体广为传播。它反映了一种不久前在“零疫情”中国还会被视为异端的观点。但随着病毒现在席卷全国，包括医院，摧毁它的说法已经停止了。人们在发烧诊所排几个小时的队。医务人员成群结队地生病。在未来几周内，死亡人数将迅速上升，因为该疾病对接种疫苗不足的人群造成了损失。

For much of the past three years, since cases of covid-19 were first detected in the central city of Wuhan, the government has viewed its handling of the pandemic with pride. It had succeeded in keeping covid at bay and deaths to an astonishingly small number compared with many other countries. It had also managed to turn this to great propaganda advantage. At least until late this year, when the virus began to run loose and protests erupted over often-brutally enforced lockdowns, many people appeared to buy the official line that China’s accomplishments were the product of a superior political system, one said to be uniquely capable of mobilising people and resources on a scale needed to prevent the virus from spreading.

handling
n. 处理；应付
bay
n. （海或湖的）湾
v. （尤指捕猎时）发出长嗥, 厉声强要
adj. 深棕色的, 栗色的
astonishingly
adv. 令人惊讶地
propaganda
n. （政治）宣传；鼓吹
accomplishment
n. 成就, 完成, 成绩, 技艺
superior
adj. (质量等方面)比…好的, 比…强的; (职位、地位、等级等)更高的; 上级的; 有优越感的; 高傲的
n. 上级, 长官, 级别更高的人; 占优势者; 优质物品

自中部城市武汉首次发现covid-19病例以来，在过去三年的大部分时间里，政府一直以其对大流行的处理为荣。与许多其他国家相比，它成功地遏制了covid，死亡人数少得惊人。它还成功地将这一点转化为巨大的宣传优势。至少在今年晚些时候，当病毒开始蔓延，抗议活动爆发时，许多人似乎都相信官方的说法，即中国的成就是优越的政治制度的产物，据说中国有独特的能力动员大规模的人员和资源，以防止病毒传播。

With zero-covid now all but abandoned and streets near-emptied not by lockdowns but by fear, the public’s attention is turning to the health-care apparatus. In recent days calls in Beijing to 120, the number for medical emergencies, have risen to five or six times the normal level. “Covid chaos”, as a newspaper in Beijing called it, has broken out in hospitals. People in many cities have been flocking to them, terrified even by mild infection with the virus. They were once told that it posed a grave threat to their lives. Now, dismissively, officials are calling the current Omicron variant flu-like. But immunity to covid is low in China, so the ballooning number of cases will result in many deaths: about 1.5m in the next few months, by The Economist’s worst-case estimate.

apparatus
n. 装置，器具，机构，组织
terrified
adj. 恐惧, 很害怕
v. “terrify”的过去式和过去分词，使恐惧，使十分害怕
mild
adj. 温和的；和善的；不严厉的；和煦的
dismissive
adj. 轻蔑的, 鄙视的
immunity
n. 免疫力, 豁免, 受保护, 免除
ballooning
n. 热气球运动

随着零冠病毒现在几乎被废弃，街道几乎因封锁而空无一人，而是因为恐惧，公众的注意力转向了医疗机构。最近几天，北京紧急医疗呼叫电话达到120，是正常水平的五到六倍。北京一家报纸所称的“新冠乱象”在医院爆发。许多城市的人们都涌向他们，即使是轻微的病毒感染也会让他们害怕。他们曾被告知，这对他们的生命构成了严重威胁。现在，官员们轻蔑地称目前的欧米克隆变种类似流感。但中国对新冠病毒的免疫力很低，因此不断膨胀的病例数量将导致许多人死亡:根据《经济学人》最坏的估计，在未来几个月里，大约有150万人死亡。

Fatalities on such a scale would still be lower, as a share of the population, than seen in many other countries as a result of covid. But they will raise questions in China about weaknesses in the country’s health-care system and whether they may have contributed to people’s suffering and the ordeal of medical staff.

Fatality
n. 宿命, （事故、战争、疾病等中的）死亡, （疾病的）致命性, 听天由命
ordeal
n. 折磨, 磨难, 煎熬, 严酷的考验

与许多其他国家相比，这种规模的死亡人数占人口的比例仍将较低。但它们将在中国引发人们对中国医疗体系缺陷的质疑，以及它们是否可能加剧了人们的痛苦和医务人员的折磨。

It would not be the first time for such soul-searching. An outbreak of SARS, which was first detected in China in 2002 and killed hundreds, mostly within China, prompted much debate about the system’s failings. Having initially covered up the emergence of SARS, officials became more open. Henk Bekedam, then the World Health Organisation’s chief representative in Beijing, recalls a study by Chinese government researchers, funded by the WHO, that was completed in 2005. China Youth Daily, a state-controlled newspaper, revealed details of it with an eye-catching headline: “China’s health reforms have not succeeded”. It was “quite something” to see those words, says Mr Bekedam.

prompt
adj. 迅速的，立刻的；敏捷的
v. 激起，促进，推动；提示
n. 〔计算机屏幕上的〕提示符；〔给演员的〕提词，提白
initially
adv. 最初, 开始, 起初

这种自我反省已经不是第一次了。2002年，SARS首次在中国被发现，导致数百人死亡，其中大部分是在中国境内。SARS的爆发引发了人们对医疗体系缺陷的激烈讨论。在最初掩盖了SARS的出现之后，官员们变得更加公开。时任世界卫生组织(WHO)驻北京首席代表贝克达姆(Henk Bekedam)回忆起了一项由中国政府研究人员在世卫组织资助下于2005年完成的研究。国有报纸《中国青年报》以醒目的标题披露了该计划的细节:“中国的医疗改革没有成功”。Bekedam先生说，看到这些话“很了不起”。

Under Xi Jinping, who became China’s leader a decade ago, public acknowledgment of policy error would be harder to imagine. Perhaps, he may feel, there is less need of one. Much has been done to remedy the problems that SARS highlighted.

acknowledgment
n. 承认；承认书 (“acknowledgement”的变体)；感谢，致谢
remedy
n. 解决方法，解决良方；药品，治疗方法
v. 改正；纠正；改善

在十年前成为中国领导人的习近平的领导下，公开承认政策错误将更加难以想象。 也许，他可能觉得，不需要那么多了。 为了解决 SARS 突出的问题，已经做了很多工作。

A big one was the public’s fear of any contact with the health system because of the high cost of getting treated. Before SARS, community-level care had crumbled. Many state-owned enterprises and the “people’s communes” that had once provided health services had been dismantled. Hospitals remained under state control but had become market-driven. To pad their budgets and the wallets of their staff they could set their own prices for drugs and treatments. In cities, only people with formal job contracts had access to insurance. Most of China’s 900m rural dwellers had to pay for their own medical expenses.

crumble
v. 崩溃, 崩裂, 瓦解, 成碎屑
n. 酥皮水果甜点
dismantle
v. 拆开, 取消
formal
adj. 适合正式场合的，庄重的；正式的；合乎规矩的
n. （正式的）舞会；（女子的）正式礼服
rural
adj. 乡下的；乡村的；农村的；有乡村特色的；田园的；有乡土气息的
dweller
n. 居民, 居住者, 栖身者

一个很大的原因是公众害怕与医疗系统有任何接触，因为接受治疗的费用很高。在非典之前，社区一级的医疗服务已经崩溃。许多曾经提供保健服务的国有企业和”人民公社”已被拆除。医院仍由国家控制，但已成为市场驱动。为了充实预算和员工的钱包，他们可以自行制定药品和治疗的价格。在城市里，只有有正式工作合同的人才能买到保险。在中国9亿农村居民中，大多数人不得不自己支付医疗费用。

After SARS, officials ramped up efforts to enroll rural residents in a government-funded health-insurance scheme. In 2007 they did the same in cities among those without formal jobs. Two years later the government unveiled a plan for health reform that aimed to provide affordable, basic care for everyone (“universal health coverage”, as the WHO calls it) by 2020. It involved a big increase in government spending. The government’s annual outlay on health as a share of GDP tripled to about 3% compared with the amount being spent at the time of SARS, the WHO reckons (see chart 1). By 2011 more than 95% of China’s population had some form of government-financed health insurance. By 2017 the number of health workers per person had increased by more than 85% and the number of hospital beds by nearly 145%.

ramp
n. 匝道, 斜坡, 坡道, （装车或上下飞机的）活动梯
v. 诈骗, 【纹章】(狮子等)用后脚直立, 作恫吓姿势, 猛扑
enroll
v. （使）加入；注册；登记
scheme
n. 计划，方案；体系；体制；阴谋
v. 密谋，图谋
unveil
v. 公布, 推出; 为…揭幕, 揭开…上的覆盖物
outlay
n. （启动新项目的）开支

非典之后，官员们加大力度让农村居民参加政府资助的医疗保险计划。2007年，在城市中没有正式工作的人也采取了同样的措施。两年后，政府公布了一项医疗改革计划，旨在到2020年为每个人提供负担得起的基本医疗服务(世界卫生组织称之为“全民医保”)。这涉及到政府开支的大幅增加。世界卫生组织估计，与SARS时期相比，政府的年度医疗支出占GDP的比重增加了两倍，达到3%左右。到2011年，超过95%的中国人口拥有某种形式的政府资助的医疗保险。到2017年，人均卫生工作者人数增加了85%以上，医院床位数量增加了近145%。

Lessons from Wuhan
Much, then, to crow about. But the eruption of covid in 2019 showed that a lot remained to be done. The SARS outbreak, tiny by comparison, had revealed woeful inadequacy in China’s disease-surveillance apparatus. With American help, China tried to remedy this by training hundreds of people in how to respond to such events. But covid was rampant in Wuhan by the time the chief of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, George Gao, learned about it, according to reports.

crow
n. 乌鸦, 喔喔叫声
v. （尤指在清晨）啼叫, 自鸣得意, 欢叫
eruption
n. 【地】喷发, 迸发, 【医】疹, (牙齿)冒出
comparison
n. 比较，对照
woeful
adj. 糟糕的, 严重的, 不合意的, 悲惨的
apparatus
n. 装置，器具，机构，组织
remedy
n. 解决方法，解决良方；药品，治疗方法
v. 改正；纠正；改善
rampant
adj. 泛滥的, 猖獗的, 疯长的

那么，有很多值得夸耀的东西了。但2019年新冠肺炎疫情的爆发表明，还有很多工作要做。相比之下，SARS的爆发微不足道，却暴露了中国疾病监测设备的严重不足。在美国的帮助下，中国试图通过培训数百人如何应对此类事件来解决这一问题。但据报道，当中国疾病预防控制中心主任乔治·高了解到这一情况时，covid已经在武汉猖獗。

What unfolded in Wuhan in 2020 exposed wider problems in the health-care system. The government’s efforts to rebuild community-level care, and make it act as a gateway to hospitals like Britain’s general-practitioner (GP) clinics, had clearly made little progress. Terrified residents of Wuhan, often with only mild symptoms of covid, rushed straight to hospitals—disdainful (as many Chinese are) of neighbourhood health centres where doctors tend to be less well-trained and equipment inferior. Writing in the Chinese Journal of Health Policy, four academics in Wuhan described the scene as “chaotic”, like a bank run. Community health centres proved of little use. Their doctors were summoned to help out in hospitals. A national plan for health-care development had called for community clinics to have 3.5 health workers per 1,000 residents served by 2020. At the start of the pandemic, Wuhan’s had only 2.7, the scholars noted. Stripped of their bare-bones staff, some clinics had to close as the virus swept the city.

unfold
v. （使）展开，打开；（使）逐渐展现，展示；透露
gateway
n. 网关, 途径, 门道, 手段
Terrified
adj. 恐惧, 很害怕
v. “terrify”的过去式和过去分词，使恐惧，使十分害怕
disdainful
adj. 轻视的, 鄙视的, 倨傲的
inferior
adj. 次等的，较差的；（级别）较低的
n. （级别）较低的人；不如他人的人
chaotic
adj. 混乱的, 杂乱的, 紊乱的
summon
v. 传唤；召集，召开；吁求，请求；鼓起，振作
Strip
n. 条，带；狭长地带，带状水域；队服；连环漫画
v. 剥夺；扒光…的衣服；进行脱衣表演

2020年在武汉发生的事情暴露了医疗体系中更广泛的问题。政府努力重建社区护理，并使其成为像英国全科医生诊所那样的医院的门户，但显然进展甚微。吓坏了的武汉居民，通常只有轻微的covid症状，直接冲进了医院——他们(和许多中国人一样)不屑于社区医疗中心，那里的医生往往没有受过良好的训练，设备也较差。武汉的四位学者在《中国卫生政策杂志》上撰文称，当时的情景“混乱”，就像银行挤兑一样。事实证明，社区保健中心用处不大。他们的医生被召集到医院帮忙。一项国家卫生保健发展计划要求到2020年，社区诊所每1,000名居民拥有3.5名卫生工作者。学者们指出，在大流行开始时，武汉只有2.7个。随着病毒席卷这座城市，一些诊所失去了最基本的员工，不得不关闭。

Days after the first covid-related death was announced, the tide began to turn. A citywide lockdown was imposed. The city’s government began demanding that citizens with symptoms be escorted to community health centres for checks. This helped to ease some of the pressure on hospitals. But the clinics struggled to cope. Many people with chronic conditions such as high blood pressure or diabetes had been getting their medicine and check-ups at hospitals. When hospitals stopped providing such services to limit the flow of people, community facilities were supposed to take up the reins. They were unprepared. “Throughout the city, it became difficult for outpatients with chronic diseases to see a doctor or get their medicine,” the academics said.

escort
v. 护卫，护送
n. 陪侍者；护卫者
facility
n. 设备，设施； 附加服务，附加功能；天赋；娴熟，灵巧
reins
n. 激情, 肾脏, 腰部, 缰绳, 控制, 主宰, 掌管
v. “rein”的第三人称单数
rein
n. 控制, 缰绳, （幼儿佩带以防走失的）保护带, 主宰
v. 控制, 箝制, 抑制(情欲等), 给(马)套上缰绳
outpatient
n. 门诊病人

在宣布首例与covid相关的死亡病例数天后，形势开始逆转。全城都被封锁了。该市政府开始要求有症状的公民被护送到社区卫生中心进行检查。这有助于减轻医院的一些压力。但诊所却难以应付。许多患有高血压或糖尿病等慢性病的人一直在医院接受药物治疗和检查。当医院停止提供此类服务以限制人员流动时，社区设施应该接管这一工作。他们毫无准备。学者们说:“在整个城市，慢性病门诊患者看病或取药变得困难。”

As the virus runs rampant again, officials are trying to show they are better prepared. The city government in Beijing says that by the end of November—a week before the main mechanisms of zero-covid were dismantled—240 of the capital’s community health centres had set up fever clinics. Within another few days the remaining 110 or so had opened them, too.

rampant
adj. 泛滥的, 猖獗的, 疯长的

随着病毒再次猖獗，官员们正试图表明他们已经做好了更好的准备。北京市政府表示，截至11月底——在零冠主要机制被拆除的一周之前——首都240家社区卫生中心已经设立了发烧诊所。又过了几天，剩下的110个左右也打开了。

But until recently they had not been busy vaccinating people. Amy, a vlogger in the city of Kunming, says she was fully vaccinated at her local clinic six months ago, but has heard nothing from them since about a booster. (Chinese-made vaccines, the only type permitted in China, are less effective than the ones commonly used in rich countries.) She has just tested positive, with mild symptoms. Were it to get more serious, official advice is that she go first to her community clinic. But Amy insists she would go to hospital, despite the queues and brevity of consultations. The quality of care is better there, she says.

vlogger
n. 视频博主
booster
n. (火箭) 助推器; (电器) 增压器; (药物) 加强剂; 起推动作用的事物; 支持者, 拥护者
brevity
n. 简洁, 简练, 短暂
consultation
n. 咨询, 磋商, 查阅, 商讨

但直到最近，他们还没有忙着给人们接种疫苗。艾米是昆明市的一名视频博主，她说六个月前她在当地的诊所接种了全面疫苗，但从那以后就没有听到任何关于加强疫苗的消息。(中国生产的疫苗是中国唯一允许生产的疫苗，但效果不如发达国家常用的疫苗。)她刚刚检测呈阳性，症状轻微。如果病情加重，官方建议她先去社区诊所。但艾米坚持要去医院，尽管要排长队，而且问诊时间很短。她说，那里的医疗质量更好。

Trick or treatment?
Amy’s view is not surprising. China’s health-care system, and the ability of its health-care institutions to respond to emergencies such as covid, are still saddled with many of the same problems that were evident during SARS. In 2017 the government stopped allowing hospitals to sell essential drugs at a mark-up as a way of generating revenue—a practice that had been causing huge public resentment. But hospitals still find other ways to make money, such as by prescribing unnecessary treatments, including expensive inpatient care. To attract customers they buy shiny, imported MRI scanners and other diagnostic tools, and charge patients steep prices for tests, as less glamorous but important areas of care are neglected.

Trick
n. 技巧, 诡计, 诀窍, 把戏
v. 欺骗, 欺诈
adj. 意在欺骗的, 容易使人上当的, 虚弱有毛病的
saddle
n. 马鞍, （自行车或摩托车的）车座, （动物的）脊肉
v. 给（马）备鞍；使负担，使承受
resentment
n. 怨恨, 愤恨
attract
v. 吸引, 招引, 使喜爱, 引起…的好感（或爱慕）
shiny
adj. 光亮的, 锃亮的, 反光的, 有光泽的
scanner
n. 扫描仪, 扫描器, 扫描设备, （医用）扫描器
diagnostic
adj. 诊断的, 判断的
n. 诊断, 诊断程序（诊断计算机的错误）
glamorous
adj. 特别富有魅力的, 富于刺激的, 独特的

艾米的观点并不奇怪。中国的医疗保健系统及其医疗机构应对covid等紧急情况的能力仍然面临着许多与SARS期间明显相同的问题。2017年，政府停止允许医院以加价销售基本药物作为创收的一种方式，这种做法引起了公众的极大不满。但医院仍在寻找其他赚钱的方法，比如开不必要的治疗处方，包括昂贵的住院护理。为了吸引客户，他们购买闪亮的进口核磁共振扫描仪和其他诊断工具，并向患者收取高昂的检查费用，因为不那么光鲜但重要的护理领域被忽视了。

Since 2001, thanks to the government’s insurance schemes, out-of-pocket payments for health care have dropped from about 60% of households’ health spending to 30%, according to “Healthy China”, a report in 2019 by the WHO, the World Bank and the Chinese government. But this was still higher than the average of about 20% in the OECD, a club of rich countries.

根据世界卫生组织、世界银行和中国政府在2019年发布的《健康中国》报告，自2001年以来，由于政府的保险计划，自付医疗费用占家庭医疗支出的比例已从约60%下降到30%。但这仍高于富裕国家俱乐部——经合组织(OECD) 20%的平均水平。

The profit motive in hospitals has created a blizzard of distortions. One is evident in the country’s shortage of intensive-care beds, a problem that will worsen as serious cases of covid rise. Before the pandemic, hospitals had pondered their worth. Why spend money on installing them and training specialist staff when a far steadier stream of revenue could be created by focusing on the predictable needs of patients with non-communicable diseases, such as cancer and heart ailments? These are fast-growing as the population ages, lifestyles change and pollution undermines health.

blizzard
n. 【气】暴风雪, 〈非正式〉暴风雪般的一阵, 大量
distortion
n. 扭曲；变形；曲解；失真
ponder
v. 沉思，琢磨，考虑
specialist
n. 专家；专科医生
predictable
adj. 可预见的, 可预料的, 意料之中的, 老套乏味的
ailment
n. 轻病, 小恙
undermine
v. 逐渐削弱（信心、权威等）, 使逐步减少效力, 从根基处破坏, 挖…的墙脚

医院的利润动机造成了一场扭曲的暴风雪。其中之一是该国重症监护床位的短缺，随着covid严重病例的增加，这一问题将进一步恶化。在大流行之前，医院一直在考虑自己的价值。如果专注于非传染性疾病患者(如癌症和心脏病患者)可预见的需求，可以创造更稳定的收入来源，为什么还要花钱安装这些设备和培训专业人员呢?随着人口老龄化、生活方式改变和污染损害健康，这些问题迅速增长。

In early December the government ordered hospitals to ensure their critical-care beds were ready for use by covid patients, including beds earmarked for other kinds of illnesses. This month the government said there were now about ten per 100,000 people—a big increase from recent official figures of about four.

12月初，政府命令医院确保重症监护床位为covid患者准备好，包括指定用于其他疾病的床位。本月政府表示，每10万人中就有10人患有糖尿病，比最近官方数据的4人有了很大的增长。

But The Economist’s modelling suggests that is still only about one-third of the number that may be needed to cope with the covid wave (see chart 2). A paucity of intensive-care capacity had been one of the main reasons for maintaining a zero-covid policy. Ramping it up now will not be helped by a chronic shortage of nurses with the necessary skills. Those who suffer most from the critical-care deficit will be people living in places other than the biggest cities, where the fanciest hospitals are concentrated. In the countryside many village “doctors” do not even have a university degree.

model
n. 型, 模范, 典型, 模特儿
adj. 模范的
v. 做模特儿, （向顾客）穿戴展示, 将…做成模型, 复制
paucity
n. 少量, 少许, 贫乏
Ramp
n. 匝道, 斜坡, 坡道, （装车或上下飞机的）活动梯
v. 诈骗, 【纹章】(狮子等)用后脚直立, 作恫吓姿势, 猛扑
chronic
adj. 长期的, 慢性的, 难以治愈（或根除）的, 长期患病的
n. 慢性病人
fancy
v. 想象; 认为; 想要; 迷恋
n. 爱好; 想象的事物; 想象(力)；幻想
adj. 异常复杂的; 太花哨的; 精致的, 有精美装饰的; 异想天开的; 特级的, 优质的
concentrated
adj. 决心要做的, 全力以赴的, 浓缩的, 密集的
v. 集中（concentrate的过去式和过去分词）

但《经济学人》的模型表明，这仍然只是应对新冠疫情所需人数的三分之一左右(见图2)。重症监护能力不足一直是维持零新冠政策的主要原因之一。长期缺乏具备必要技能的护士，现在加大护理力度也于事无补。重症监护赤字的最大受害者将是那些居住在大城市以外地区的人，而大城市是最好的医院集中的地方。在农村，许多乡村“医生”甚至没有大学学位。

The government is clearly aware of the problem. Its latest health-reform plan, published in 2016, stresses the need for an effective primary-care system. It has spent billions of dollars on beefing up community-level facilities. But recruiting talent for the medical profession is hard enough—salaries are relatively low, as is public respect for doctors. Violence against medical staff is common, often triggered by high prices for their services. Persuading doctors to work in general practice outside hospitals is even tougher. With fewer expensive facilities and medicines at their disposal, community GPs have less opportunity to augment their salaries.

recruit
v. 吸收（新成员）, 征募（新兵）, 动员…（提供帮助）, （通过招募）组成
n. 新兵, 新警员, 新成员
disposal
n. 处理; 解决; 清除; 去掉; 赠送; 转让; 出售; 排列; 布置

政府显然意识到了这个问题。2016年公布的最新医疗改革计划强调了建立有效初级医疗体系的必要性。它已经花费了数十亿美元来加强社区设施。但是为医疗行业招募人才已经够难的了——工资相对较低，公众对医生的尊重也不高。针对医务人员的暴力行为很常见，通常是由他们的服务价格过高引发的。说服医生在医院以外的全科诊所工作更加困难。由于可用的昂贵设施和药品越来越少，社区全科医生增加工资的机会也越来越少。

Neither they, nor doctors in hospitals, have much incentive to make the system work better. Ideally, primary-care facilities should refer people in need of special care to hospitals, which in turn should send patients back for routine follow-up treatment. But referrals can deprive those making them of customers, and doctors are reluctant to lose business. George Liu of La Trobe University in Melbourne notes that the volume of care delivered by community health workers in China has increased in the past decade, but their share of the total has declined. “That’s because they are still competing with hospitals,” he says.

incentive
n. 激励, 刺激, 鼓励
adj. 刺激性的
referral
n. 转送（到能提供专门帮助的人或地方那里），移交；介绍
deprive
v. 剥夺；免职(特指圣职)

无论是他们，还是医院里的医生，都没有太多动力让这个系统更好地运作。理想情况下，初级保健机构应该把需要特殊护理的人转到医院，医院反过来又应该把病人送回去接受常规的后续治疗。但是转诊会让那些为他们提供服务的人失去客户，而医生们不愿意失去生意。墨尔本拉筹伯大学(La Trobe University)的乔治·刘(George Liu)指出，在过去十年里，中国社区卫生工作者提供的医疗服务数量有所增加，但他们所占的份额却有所下降。“这是因为他们仍在与医院竞争，”他说。

As covid cases rise and local governments scramble to beef up primary-care facilities to divert patients from overstretched hospitals, some see a glimmer of hope. On WeChat, Health News, the health ministry’s mouthpiece, said the shift of attention to community clinics had created an “opportunity”. Their fever departments should become a permanent feature, not just a covid-related one, it suggested, so that people with high temperatures would no longer feel a need to go to hospital.

scramble
v. （迅速而吃力地）爬，攀登；匆忙移动；仓促完成（困难的事）；争夺，抢夺；倒换[扰乱]…的频率；打乱
n. 攀爬，爬行；（互相推撞的）争夺，争抢；（因赶任务出现的）忙乱，忙作一团
overstretched
adj. 超出承受能力的
glimmer
n. 微弱的闪光, 闪烁的微光, 微弱的迹象, 一丝
v. 隐约地闪烁, 发出微弱的闪光

随着新冠肺炎病例的增加，地方政府争相加强初级保健设施，以将病人从人满为患的医院转移过来，一些人看到了一线希望。卫生部的喉舌《健康新闻》在微信频道上表示，人们对社区诊所的关注转移创造了一个“机会”。它建议，发烧科应该成为一个永久性的功能，而不仅仅是一个与covid相关的部门，这样高温的人就不会再觉得有必要去医院了。

It is astonishing that China, a country that has hosted two Olympic games and boasts of landing spaceships on the Moon, is still debating how to build community health clinics that patients trust and want to use. If the covid pandemic can accelerate long-needed change, some of the suffering it is causing will not have been in vain. ■

astonishing
adj. 令人十分惊讶的, 使人大为惊奇的, 难以置信的
v. “astonish”的现在分词
vain
adj. 徒劳的, 枉然的, 无结果的, 自负的

令人惊讶的是，中国这样一个举办过两届奥运会，并吹嘘自己的宇宙飞船能登陆月球的国家，却还在讨论如何建立病人信任并愿意使用的社区医疗诊所。如果新冠肺炎大流行能够加速长期需要的变革，那么它造成的一些痛苦将不会是徒劳的。■

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China to scrap quarantine for international travelers in an essential end of zero-Covid
PUBLISHED MON, DEC 26 20229:02 PM EST

Evelyn Cheng
@CHENGEVELYN

KEY POINTS
China announced Monday that starting Jan. 8, 2023, travelers will no longer need to quarantine upon arrival on the mainland.
China said it would improve visa arrangements for foreigners to enter the country for resumption of work, business, study, visiting relatives and other gatherings.
Chinese citizens’ ability to travel overseas will be “resumed in an orderly manner,” the announcement said.

scrap
n. 碎片，小块；丝毫；废料；口角
v. 废弃，取消
resumption
n. 恢复, 重新开始, 继续进行
gathering
n. 聚集，聚会；收集，采集

中国周一宣布，自2023年1月8日起，旅行者抵达大陆时将不再需要隔离。
中国表示，将完善外国人来华复工、复业、学习、探亲和其他聚会的签证安排。
公告称，中国公民出境旅游将“有序恢复”。

Passenger planes sit on the tarmac at Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport on Nov. 4, 2022, before China ended Covid-related restrictions on travel.
Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images

BEIJING — China announced late Monday that travelers will no longer need to quarantine upon arrival on the mainland starting Jan. 8.

The forthcoming shift follows an abrupt relaxation this month in domestic Covid controls. The changes end the bulk of the most restrictive measures that China had imposed for nearly three years under its zero-Covid policy.

abrupt
adj. 突然的, 突如其来的；粗鲁的，鲁莽的；（斜坡等）陡峭的；（文章或讲话等）不流畅的
relaxation
n. 放松, 消遣, 休息, 用于放松消遣的时间
bulk
n. 大宗，大批（买卖）；（大）体积，（大）量；大部分；巨大的一团；巨大的形状
v. 使数量显得更大；显得很重要

这一即将到来的转变是在本月国内Covid控制突然放松之后。这些变化结束了中国在零冠政策下近3年来实施的大部分最严格的限制措施。

Since March 2020, travelers to the mainland have had to quarantine, typically at a designated hotel and for 14 days. That isolation period subsequently began to increase to 21 days or more for some travelers, before China began cutting quarantine times this summer.

designate
v. 指定，选派；标明，指明
adj. 新指定的，新任命的
isolation
n. 隔离，隔离状态；孤独，孤立状态；【电】绝缘，【化】离析(作用)
adj. 孤立主义者的

自2020年3月以来，前往大陆的旅行者必须隔离，通常在指定的酒店隔离14天。随后，对一些旅行者来说，隔离期开始增加到21天或更长时间，直到今年夏天中国开始缩短隔离时间。

Current policy requires five days of quarantine at a centralized facility, followed by three days at home.

facility
n. 设备，设施； 附加服务，附加功能；天赋；娴熟，灵巧

目前的政策要求在集中设施隔离5天，然后在家隔离3天。

China’s National Health Commission also said that effective Jan. 8, authorities would stop tracking close contacts of Covid patients, halt the designation of Covid risk areas and cancel Covid measures that had slowed the import of goods.

中国国家卫生健康委员会还表示，自1月8日起，有关部门将停止跟踪新冠肺炎患者的密切接触者，停止指定新冠肺炎风险地区，并取消阻碍商品进口的新冠肺炎措施。

The commission said travelers to China would only need to show a negative virus test from within the last 48 hours, and wouldn’t have to apply for a clear health code anymore. While on the flight, passengers would need to still wear a face mask, the announcement said.

该委员会表示，前往中国的旅行者只需要出示过去48小时内的病毒检测呈阴性，不再需要申请明确的健康代码。公告称，乘客在飞机上仍需佩戴口罩。

China’s economy slowed this year amid stringent Covid controls that locked down Shanghai for about two months, as well as other parts of the country. Beijing suddenly ended many of the restrictions earlier this month. Meanwhile, local Covid infections surged, pressuring an already stretched public health system.

amid
prep. 在…过程中, 在…中, 四周是
pressure
n. 压力；压强；心理压力；紧迫，催促；大气压
v. 对…施压
adj. 紧迫的
stretch
v. 撑大；伸展，张开；延伸；舒展；绵延，延续
n. 伸展，张开；绵延的一片

由于严格的新冠肺炎控制措施，上海以及中国其他地区被封锁了大约两个月，中国经济今年放缓。本月早些时候，北京突然取消了许多限制措施。与此同时，当地新冠肺炎感染人数激增，给本已紧张的公共卫生系统带来压力。

More flights needed
The inbound quarantine requirement and other Covid-related measures have made it difficult for foreign businesses in China to bring in staff, executives and factory technicians.

inbound
adj. 到达的, 归航的

需要更多航班
入境检疫要求和其他与新冠肺炎相关的措施，使在华外资企业难以引进员工、高管和工厂技术人员。

“Just because the borders are open doesn’t mean travel will bounce back immediately,” Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said last week.

bounce
v. 弹跳；跳动；（支票等）被拒付退回；拒付，退回（支票等）
n. 弹跳

He noted the number of available flights in and out of China has to recover. “I don’t think the U.S. carriers or the international carriers will immediately go back to normal because those airplanes are already flying other routes,” Hart said. “It may be different with Chinese airlines, because the airplanes are just sitting on the tarmac doing nothing.”

tarmac
n. （用来铺路面的） 柏油碎石；柏油碎石路面（尤指飞机跑道）
v. 以柏油碎石铺筑（路面）

他指出，进出中国的航班数量必须恢复。哈特说:“我不认为美国航空公司或国际航空公司会立即恢复正常，因为这些飞机已经在飞其他航线了。”“中国航空公司的情况可能不同，因为飞机只是停在停机坪上，什么也不做。”

In 2019, China said there were 670 million international trips in and out of the country. In 2021, the number had plunged to 128 million, according to the National Immigration Administration.

plunge
v. （使）突然向前倒下[跌落]；价格、比率等〕暴跌，骤降；〔船〕猛烈地颠簸
n. 突降；俯冲；〔价格、价值等的〕骤降；突然卷入；跳水；〔短时间的〕游泳

2019年，中国表示有6.7亿人次国际旅客进出中国。根据国家移民管理局的数据，到2021年，这一数字已降至1.28亿。

China said Monday it would improve visa arrangements for foreigners to enter the country for resumption of work, business, study, visiting relatives and other gatherings.

Chinese citizens’ ability to travel overseas will be “resumed in an orderly manner,” the announcement said in Chinese, according to a CNBC translation.

During the pandemic, Beijing prevented Chinese citizens from getting passports or leaving the country unless they had a clear, typically business, purpose.

Previously, Chinese tourists and their spending overseas — especially for luxury goods— had been a significant source of income for businesses in many international tourist spots.

Previously
adv. 先前；以前

此前，中国游客及其海外消费——尤其是奢侈品消费——一直是许多国际旅游景点企业的重要收入来源。

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